Bounced cheques. People want their investment back…

The Department for Infrastructure produced their Bicycle Strategy 10 years ago. It promised a revolution in transport. It’s delivered nothing. It now feels like a rather large bounced cheque – some people are angry and want their investment back.

Government policy and strategy documents are like cheques – promissory notes given to the public, promising to deliver something of value at specified point in the near future. A minister signs-off the document giving it credibility and pledges to honour it with departmental resources and political will.

In exchange the electorate invest their votes, trust, time and taxes. They make sacrifices by agreeing to tough reforms, prolonged inconvenience during infrastructure projects or belt tightening during periods of austerity.

The private sector makes sacrifices by investing in staff, plant, land etc. All in the expectation that government will deliver on their promise at the agreed time. Everyone expects to be better off in the future.

When government fail to deliver on an election policy or departmental strategy – it’s like a bad debtor bouncing a cheque. Creditors (the voters) experience a sequence of emotions. Panic, once they realise their investment is gone. Foolishness, that they were so easily duped. Anger, as they try in vain to recoup your investment. Resignation, when hope is gone and they decide to cut their losses.

Delivery debt

Danny Kennedy produced “A Bicycle Strategy for Northern Ireland” in 2015 promising (among many things):

• 20% of all journeys under 1 mile to be cycled by 2025;
• 10% of all journeys between 1 and 2 miles to be cycled by 2025;
• 5% of all journeys between 2 and 5 miles to be cycled by 2025.

In the 10 years since the Strategy was launched all those targets have been missed. Worse still – they are at the same levels now as when the strategy was published.

Rather than restructure the delivery debt – subsequent ministers kept bouncing the cheques. The following year Chris Hazzard launched the “A Strategic Plan for Greenways” for Northern Ireland in 2016. Every target missed, another bounced strategy.

Nichola Mallon launched the “Belfast Bicycle Network” in 2021 – promising 200km of cycle lanes across the city by 2031. In the subsequent 4 years the Department has delivered around 200 metres. Another failed strategy, another bounced cheque.

John O’Dowd was quick to pull the cheque book out again in 2024 and wrote the “Active Travel Delivery Plan”. Having failed to deliver even 1km of cycle infrastructure in Belfast – he promised to build 100s of kilometres in 42 towns and settlements across NI. He’s now gone. What are the chances his cheque will bounce?

Infrastructure Minister John O’Dowd has launched a public consultation on the Active Travel Delivery Plan today. The plan sets out how the Department will prioritise and deliver over 200km of high quality active travel infrastructure in 42 urban and rural settlements across the… pic.twitter.com/pSzMiQJMXk

— Department for Infrastructure (@deptinfra) November 13, 2024

Political capital

Back in 2015 and 2016 when the ink was still fresh, Ministers for Infrastructure were keen to show up at bike events, keen to spend the short term political capital their policies had unlocked.

Minister Danny Kennedy (UUP) at Ride on Belfast 2015 – Image ©DFI

Minister Chris Hazzard (SF) at Ride on Belfast 2016 – Image ©DFI

 

Like most bad debtors they got hooked on the short term rush and put the delivery payments on the long finger. They simply got into the habit of writing cheques their department could never honour – knowing our political system almost guarantees they won’t be in when the creditors come knocking.

Like bad debtors they no longer show up to events – afraid an angry public will demand their refund. They needn’t worry though. Most of the public have passed through the panic, foolishness and anger stages – most are now at resignation. Talking to many active travel campaigners – most are resigned to the fact that the department can’t honour their debt.

As you travelled through Belfast this morning you should have seen thousands of workers, primary/secondary school children and university students quietly navigating a dense segregated cycle network on bicycles.

In reality you saw more people sitting in more cars, getting more stressed. In terms of active travel the department and society as a whole are in a much worse place now than we were in 2014.

PIVOTAL

This week Pivotal – the public policy think tank – produced “Policy delivery in Northern Ireland”. It looks at how Stormont got itself into chronic delivery debt. Interviewing former ministers, SPADS and senior civil servants – the people who write the promises, sign them off and then fail to deliver – you get a picture of an organisation with competing managers and no business plan:

“They’re not one government, they’re a series of departments.” – Interviewee N

An organisation with no Chief Operating Officer – the Head of the Civil Service does not have any formal authority over departments’ Permanent Secretaries:

“The HOCS should be the Accounting Officer for all NI Departments.” – Interviewee E

A company with no quality control or follow-through:

“It remained a document.” – Interviewee C

“Talk is cheap… it’s actions and outcomes that count.” – Interviewee Y

Suckers

Active Travel is a small folder in a large portfolio. Step back. Look across all departments and the library of policies they’ve written. It starts to look like a rather large Ponzi scheme.

Ponzi schemes need a steady stream of suckers coming in at the bottom to replace the small number checking out at the top.

The Executive’s problem is the stampede of people currently checking out of our political system – and they’re running out of suckers to replace them.