He said wider troubles for unionism — including Sinn Fein emerging as the biggest party in Northern Ireland — did not reflect a broader appetite for leaving the Union.“Unionism faces challenges but I don’t believe the hype that everything is rosy on the other side,” he added.
“Despite all the noise from republicans, the total number voting for nationalist parties has barely moved in decades.”
He added: “The truth is that they want to keep their supporters distracted because they’re afraid of the truth.
“They don’t want their own people asking difficult questions about healthcare, housing or education because their only answer is blaming everyone.”
Whilst many questions are posed regarding the specifics of reunification perhaps the most important one (and definitely the one that will weigh on the minds of those who are still open to persuasion) is ‘how much is it going to cost?’.
Unionists prefer to argue that the north is unaffordable for the south, as the south would not be able to replicate the Westminster subvention that Northern Ireland currently depends upon.
Nationalists counter that any reunification plan would of course see time-limited support from the British government to help smooth the transition out and that reunification itself would have an uplifting effect on the economy of Northern Ireland as it is brought into line with the Republic. Former Taoiseach Leo Varadkar, who has been arguing in favour of reunification since he left office, recently had an article published in ‘The Sunday Times’ where he made that point.
“I believe the north’s economy would grow faster as part of a new and united Ireland back in the European Union. Corporate profit taxes would fall for Northern Ireland’s businesses, making them more competitive and attracting more investment into the region. Pensions, welfare payments and public sector salaries would, over time, be equalised upwards to match those in the Republic. This would mean more money circulating in the economy and being spent in shops and business. Adopting the euro would mean an immediate fall in interest rates, giving a financial boost to mortgage holders and business with borrowings and those looking to expand. Public capital investment would rise, allowing barriers to growth to be removed.
The northeast of Ireland was once its economic and industrial powerhouse. Partition and the Troubles put an end to that. But it could be so again. The greater Belfast area, with a population of 700,000, can be a counterbalance to Dublin in the way other cities on the island simply cannot, and there is huge growth potential in Newry, Lisburn, Armagh, Dundalk and Drogheda along the Dublin-Belfast economic corridor between the two cities. There are only 100 miles between the two cities but a population of more than 2.2 million.”
Needless to say, an impartial observer would be well within their rights to conclude that with a lack of hard data both sides of the argument could simply be putting forth their points of view with a limited mooring in the truth of the matter, which maybe why the new government in the Republic has decided to take a look at the issue as ‘The Irish News’ reports…
“The Irish government has started the process of working out the cost implications of a united Ireland.
Details of the significant development came to light after an Irish government report found the increase of welfare payments in a 32 county structure could cost taxpayers €22 billion a year
The paper by The Department of Social Protection looks at the impact of merging welfare systems in the event of reunification.
The document sets out that the cost of applying the most generous welfare rates from both sides of the border at €21.9 billion a year above the taxes collected for social protection.
The emergence of the report confirms for the first time that the Irish government is considering the financial impact of a united Ireland.
The figures in the report, which was completed in December 2023, have been reported by the Sunday Times.
“A cross comparison of social welfare systems and costs in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland — an all-island perspective”, confirms that key entitlements, including carer support, jobseeker, child benefits and pensions, are higher south of the border.
Figures, show that disability supports are more generous in the north, where 37% of people receive the payment, compared with just 6.4% in the south.”
The 22 billion euro a year pricetag is clearly the headline figure, such an eye watering sum would be unaffordable for the island and taken at face value would seem to preclude the possibility of reunification. On the other hand, the obvious counterpoint is to ask why 37% of people in Northern Ireland receive disability when compared to 6.4% in the south, and of course the Nationalist claim that the northern economy would improve with reunification (and thus generate more revenue) has not been factored in (even if speculatively).
It seems the initial data has something for everyone to argue over and doubtless they are going to do so.
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