Is 2025 the year for Unionist Re-Alignment?

A new article today from Sam McBride in ‘the Belfast Telegraph’ wherein he reveals that there have been ongoing talks regarding the holy grail of Unionist unity since 2022. The article, Secret DUP-UUP talks in 2022 failed –but unionist unity may now be closer than any time since 1971, is behind a paywall but is a very interesting read and if you are a subscriber to the Telegraph, please do take the time to check out the entire thing.

Unionist Unity is an idea that has been around for many years now and normally rears its head following an election, most of which in recent years have been marked by Unionist decline. In the aftermath of the 2022 Assembly election now disgraced ex-DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson blamed ‘splintered unionism’ for the loss of seats. It is these electoral setbacks that seem to have prompted the discussions, which were held in Herefordshire and attended by Donaldson as well as then UUP leader Doug Beattie, current UUP leader Mike Nesbitt, former UUP leader Tom Elliot, current DUP leader Gavin Robinson and Timothy Johnston (currently the DUP’s chief executive).

The representatives discussed various approaches to unionist unity, with several proposals being discussed. One idea suggested was that all Unionists would merge with either the DUP or UUP. Another which Sam listed was ‘a new political vehicle’ though whether this would be a brand new party with a clean slate everyone could join or some sort of alliance akin to the ill-fated UCUNF of many years ago is unclear.

Whilst agreement in 2022 was not forthcoming, discussions have seemingly rumbled on in the background and there is a possibility that 2025 maybe their year. As Sam writes

“For unionists who want unity, 2025 represents the most propitious circumstances which have existed since the emergence of the DUP in 1971.It is now or never. The landscape is as perfect as it will ever be. Unionism is demoralised by repeated electoral batterings and the continuation of the Irish Sea border, pushing several internal sceptics towards unusual openness to a different way of thinking.”

But Sam also points out the big issue with proposed unionist unity, the absence of the TUV from serious discussions. The TUV are hostile to power-sharing and hostile to the Windsor Framework and, realistically, there is no political architecture that could accommodate both the TUV , the DUP and the UUP. The implication is that Unionist unity, shorthand for a single Unionist party, maybe a misnomer and that the real ball game is unionist re-alignment.

After the local elections in 2023 which saw a Sinn Féin surge (though as Philip McGuinness pointed out in an article here on Slugger in the aftermath of that vote, vote shredding in a local election that uses PR doesn’t actually happen), Mike Nesbitt (who was then NOT UUP leader) said the following on Radio Ulster regarding broad church Unionist unity…

“It’s day has gone and I believe as a personal view, and I’m not talking on behalf of the party here, that a fundamental re-alignment of unionism is now required so that we can have a coherence that is currently absent…

“But I believe what we should be looking at is not unionist unity because that just isn’t going to happen.”

Instead he told BBC Radio UIster that “a realignment to my mind looks like two parties”.

“One which would be probably closer aligned to the current TUV, and then you would have a second much larger party which would be made up of the more progressive unionists who would be coherent and they would be selling a coherent message about the future in a way that we are not doing at the moment.”                        

Sam McBride says that Nesbitt is still thinking primarily along those lines. Unionist re-alignment would see the current three big Unionist parties reduce to two, with a ‘progressive’ party and a ‘traditional’ party. But Sam also points out that such a realignment would be particularly messy given that what may seem as progressive to some may end up as uncomfortably reactionary for others, not to mention the personalities involved…

“In reality, some people wouldn’t be happy in either party. Exceptionally liberal UUP members could shift to Alliance, while a hardline DUP figure like Gregory Campbell would be unacceptable to the liberal party but find no home in the conservative party due to years of animosity with the TUV.”

Unionist re-alignment also pre-supposes that the two parties who would be involved, the DUP and UUP, are stable enough to pull it off. Whilst the DUP has shown remarkable discipline this past year in the face of multiple setbacks, the UUP’s downward trajectory seems to show no signs of abating with the Newsletter reporting here that the party faces immense challenges going forward. As the editorial reveals, the bad blood and infighting within the UUP (exemplified in the past six months with Doug Beattie’s resignation as leader and Darryl Wilson jumping ship earlier this week) has now reached a level where most of their MLAs didn’t attend the Christmas party.

Political mergers of any sort are enormously difficult, as there are always those within the organisations that would be swallowed up who value the legacy and brand of the party and who would resist any move which could see that lost. We only need think of current SDLP leader Clare Hanna’s hostility to the SDLP’s abortive link-up with Fianna Fáil to show that this isn’t a problem particular to Unionism.

Whether anything comes of these discussions in the coming year remains to be seen, but Sam ends his article on a note of warning for those who see Unionist unity as the answer to the problems Unionism faces.

“If unionist unity happens, its greatest impact could be the disappointment if it fails. Disunity has long given unionists the hope that if unity came, all would be well. If they do so, and it makes little difference, such a change could prompt even more radical thinking.”