I am collecting the daily statistics for cases and deaths due to COVID19 on a daily basis for both Irish jurisdictions, the UK, the USA, China, South Korea and Italy. Updated graphs can be seen at http://mysql02.comp.dkit.ie/mcguinnp/covid19/.
Graphs show “Deaths per million of the population” (Northern Ireland doing worryingly badly in this regard; Republic of Ireland approaching the Italy curve); “New cases per day” (lack of testing in NI resulting in low figures); “Cumulative cases per million of the population” (USA in big trouble); “Logarithmic trendline to Republic of Ireland’s figures”; “Recovery rate as percentage of closed cases” (i.e. cases whose outcome was either full recovery or death). Graphs mostly use a logarithmic scale on the Y-axis. This is to allow you to see detail in both large and small countries. What matters most in these graphs is the shape and slope of the curve.
I am also adding some summary commentary on the day’s figures. I am not a medical professional or epidemiologist, just someone who loves numbers and finds number-crunching a good way to take one’s mind off the crisis in which we find ourselves.
March 27th Summary Commentary (positive stories first: scale from 5+ to 5-:
1+: Italy: Deaths per millions: rate still slowing. New cases: more evidence for curve flattening. Italy may be about 14 days from new cases in the low hundreds, but there are reports of case clustering in Lazio and Campania. The Mezzogiorno has a weaker infrastructure and is poorer.
0: Northern Ireland: Deaths per million: slight shallowing.
0: South Korea: New cases: SK seems stuck at about 100 new cases per day.
1-: China: New cases: is there a second steepening happening?
2-: Republic of Ireland: There was an error in yesterday’s ‘Deaths per million’ graph: I had forgotten to include new figure. Our deaths per million curve looks more like Italy’s than the UK’s. Our new cases are slightly steepening. Cases per million graph suggests that we may end up with about 48,000 cases eventually. Logarithmic best-fit suggests 3,790 cases after 100 days (365 more than yesterday). Recovery rate fluctuates due to early stage in COVID19 outbreak compared to China or South Kores.
2-: UK: Deaths per million curve steepening. New cases steepening. Recovery rate fluctuates due to early stage in COVID19 outbreak compared to China or South Korea.
4-: USA: Deaths per million shallowing but still serious. Biggest ever daily new cases of any country today. Cases per million: USA overtakes UK today. Recovery rate fluctuates due to early stage in COVID19 outbreak compared to China or South Korea.
“kelly salon” by susanjanegolding is licensed under CC BY
Philip McGuinness teaches at Dundalk Institute of Technology, and loves to walk around and over the wee perfect hills of the Ring Of Gullion.
