In part two of this series on Liverpool University’s election survey I’ll look at some of the data on social issues. As the report itself notes that they were not simply looking at the attitudes of those who were planning to vote but those who have stopped voting.
This is a group that the parties (and certainly the public commentariat) generally choose to discount because they feel they cannot coax them to the polls their views don’t matter. However, they are likely to feature much more heavily in any future border poll.
The 1998 Northern Ireland Belfast Agreement referendum achieved a turnout of 81.1% of the electorate whilst the following Assembly election came to just 69.8% shortly afterward. But I intend to come to that section of the survey in another post.
What’s most fascinating is how it digs beneath the usual sectarian tropes to find surprising nuggets particularly in the social data. For instance, it is clear that beyond a hardcore vote there is no longer any significant resistance to abortion reform.
Some 72.1% of those who answered supported the right to an abortion in at least some circumstances and some 17.5% did not know what they thought about the matter. There is only a tiny proportion of the population now in favour of the status quo.
The report also notes how the view of young Catholics and Protestants are converging on a range of social and intercommunity issues, and how this shift has largely been ignored at least by the main and to some extent the wider commentariat.
For instance, only Sinn Fein supporters were in a (bare) majority in saying that they preferred their kids to go to ‘an own’ religion school. This is way out of line with younger voters (18-44), of which 18.6% of Catholics and 14.8% of Protestants agreed.
61.7% of those in the whole survey said they would not mind if a close relative was to marry someone from a different religion. That figure shoots right up amongst non-voters. And in the younger cohort, it is 83.7% of Protestants and 69% of Catholics.
It’s not just a matter of preference though. Nearly a quarter 23% of all the 19-23 year-olds say they are living with or married to someone from another or no religion suggesting that things are moving apace despite the stuck nature of NI’s political game.
Interestingly, same-sex marriage makes a majority, but only just. 51.4% agreed it was right to make same-sex marriage legal in Northern Ireland. Again, the most support comes from young Protestant nonvoters, with 73.7% agreeing and 62.7% Catholics.
As for supporters of the two main parties, 51.6% of Sinn Fein voters approved, whilst a hefty (for the only party still opposing it) 42.6% of DUP voters were supportive of same-sex marriage. The SDLP (17.2%) and Alliance (17%) had the lowest % of objectors.
On the other side of the ledger, few (23.3%) in Northern Ireland particularly agree with the idea that immigration is good for the NI economy. Of those who disagreed there was no discernable difference (both 46%) between the two religious groups.
The most important issues at the time were Brexit (23.4%) and the NHS (23%). Next came RHI (9.1%). Irish unity came in at 3.1%, just above immigration (3%). When we isolate social issues from culture question, young NI is rapidly converging.
To the extent that our politics has remained polarised (not particularly helped by a media that seems to leap gleefully into any scoilt or split along the old lines of conflict rather than the new lines.
Photo by PDPics is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA
Mick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty
Discover more from Slugger O'Toole
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
