Now I may have got this wrong because I haven’t been catching Irish TV election coverage here in London. But am the only one thinking that the parties in the election are sleepwalking through the campaign? Varadkar and Martin are playing for margins as if they were German party leaders. Who in GB could imagine a party leader speculating about a grand coalition in the first week of the campaign? Coalitions can be deadly for its members and confidence and supply not much better, witness the fate of the lib Dems in GB after 2010. The Conservatives came through narrowly until November, thanks to fundamental splits inside the Labour party more fundamental than Brexit, even exceeding those within Tory ranks. Yes, first past the post imposes more binary results than PR – but until Johnson’s big victory we learned that by itself, it doesn’t ensure a clean outcome.
Both Fine Gael and Fianna Fail are suffering from the denial of voters’ choice produced by confidence and supply bottling up the inevitable demand for change from “ austerity”. This is clearly felt by many people who feel they have to run very hard to stand still economically – and this despite some closing of the inequality gap.
On the figures produced by Prof Michael Marsh for RTE, Fine Gael stand no chance of reaching an 80 seat Dail majority based on a rainbow grouping of the entire opposition minus Sinn Fein. Fianna Fail could make it but would the margin would still be tight. And so the next government will be either the weakest of minorities and probably short lived, or a grand coalition of the two ( hitherto?) main parties. Goodness knows what voters will make of these prospects in the last week of the campaign. Martin and Varadkar will be praying they neatly polarise as usual. But not as yet…
By rejecting Sinn Fein so vehemently, Micheal Martin is trying to eliminate them as a direct competitor for votes that could deny FF first place. He shows no sign of heeding disquiet within his own ranks. He is therefore gambling on the highest stakes of his own and his party’s future. If FF results were dire and SF’s near the optimum 42, a party revolution after polling day could topple him and reverse the Sinn Fein ban. He himself could hardly eat so many words. But could it happen before the next government has to be formed?
Sinn Fein will see themselves as win :win as the main opposition party or as Fianna Fail’s eventual partner. But opposition can be a two edged sword. They can be seen as a government in waiting or the institutional losers. Either way the party system in the Republic whereby two parties slug it out on the basis of traditional allegiances must come into question. Meanwhile no clear message on an approach to unity looks imminent if political ferment continues.
Former BBC journalist and manager in Belfast, Manchester and London, Editor Spolight; Political Editor BBC NI; Current Affairs Commissioning editor BBC Radio 4; Editor Political and Parliamentary Programmes, BBC Westminster; former London Editor Belfast Telegraph. Hon Senior Research Fellow, The Constitution Unit, Univ Coll. London