Uncertainty reigns as the (latest) Stormont talks enter final phase

So today should be the day. Much of yesterday the Secretary of State briefed the ‘problem’ parties, the DUP and Sinn Féin on the nature of the governments’ text without revealing it.

The smaller parties receive their briefings today, so whilst Good Morning Ulster is broadcasting from Stormont this morning, the next development is not expected before this evening.

Will there be a deal? Gareth Gordon speaking on BBC NI’s Newsline last night pointed out that it will only take one party to object to the provisions and it will fall.

What are the chances of a political agreement among the Stormont parties? Here's our political correspondent Gareth Gordon. pic.twitter.com/KCzne0igUB

— BBC Newsline (@bbcnewsline) January 8, 2020

He reports that the chances of success are about 50/50. Reports of a shouting match (or indeed, several) last week suggest more than one party is not getting its way in the negotiations.

But despite not being the source of the shouting inside the talks, the DUP is the party most likely to reserve its position on the thorny issue of statutory Irish language provisions.

There’s a subjective sense within the party that the southern government has targeted them as the problem from the get-go and have taken the attitude that they will have to lump it.

It would not be the first time they’ve been targeted by both governments as blockers. In February 2018, the draft of a negotiating document was presented with fanfare as a draft deal.

Back then the perception was that the DUP was still reeling from an Assembly election in which Sinn Féin had got to within one seat of them in the previous March.

Perhaps Mrs May was trying too hard to prove to the Irish that despite her dependence upon the DUP for her governmental mandate she was prepared to be tough with them.

But political fortunes have since changed. Despite great tensions between themselves and the Alliance Party, on December’s form, the latter’s surge is least likely to hit them in new elections.

The great consolidation of unionism that we saw in the 2017 Westminster election may be over but it has only dropped to 30% putting them where they were in that year’s Assembly election.

That may reduce the likelihood that Smith and Coveney pulling off a similar ‘outing’ to 2018, not least because whatever happens today, there is still time to run before Monday’s deadline.

Despite the implication of loyalist paramilitaries in two murders at the weekend (years after their ceasefire), Julian Smith took the unusual step of pulling in loyalists for consultations.

Unlike the Provisionals, loyalists have never been under the direct command of any senior party and as such, they retain the potential to wreck any nascent deal that emerges from the talks.

None of which indicates what the outcome will be. The best one for Northern Ireland is to get the institutions back up and running as soon as possible. Not even the DUP wants an election.

It would be the sixth democratic ballot in five years. Money is low, activists are tired and more importantly, so are the voters. After three years’ time out, it’s time to get back to work.

And to stay there, whatever the provocation. We’ve had an object lesson in what happens when tactical politics wilfully crashes democracy. It brings no one any good, not even the crashers.

“Stormont” by stevelavo is licensed under CC BY-ND

Mick Fealty

Mick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty