What does the election mean for the union?

What does the UK’s seismic election result mean for the island of Ireland, Brexit and the union?

We break it down in a new episode of The Irish Passport podcast: what will happen next with Brexit, whether an ‘Irish Sea border’ is really in the post, and why the vote is being described as the most serious for the union in a century.

One reason Scottish National Party’s landslide victory and First Minister Nicola Sturgeon’s demand for a referendum on independence.

“Unionists will be looking across the water and thinking if Scotland is going to go, then the Union is going to go,” commentator Sarah Creighton told us. “That vote coming through in Scotland is going to make a lot of people nervous.”

Did an interview with the @PassportIrish about #GE19 https://t.co/HkivEd35vm

— Sarah Creighton 🍂 (@Saraita101) December 13, 2019

Will Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal really case an Irish Sea border? We lay out the timetable for what will happen next with Brexit. Barring major upsets, the UK is expected to leave the European Union on January 31st. How hard the checks on trade will be between the island of Britain and the island of Ireland all depends on how much Britain chooses to diverge from EU norms. It will all have to be hashed out in trade negotiations with the EU over the next year, covering complex detail on everything from how animals are raised, food is prepared, light bulbs are made and your car is insured.

“We thought the first phase were difficult but it was only about three issues,” First Vice-President of the European Parliament and MEP Mairead McGuinness said. “The next phase is where we will really have to look at the whites of each others’ eyes.

We sum it up in the new episode of The Irish Passport podcast, do check it out.

The Tory's electoral victory might well present the greatest threat to the Union for a hundred years. In our latest episode, we investigate what the #GE2019 results really mean for Northern Ireland. Listen here⬇️ https://t.co/DpHOxWWFMj

— Tim Mc Inerney (@TimMacAndErny) December 14, 2019

Examining the data more closely, it reveals interesting insights. Look how much the three middle-ground parties of Alliance, the SDLP and the UUP have gained since the last election, while the DUP and Sinn Féin shrank. Alliance more than doubled its vote share overall, becoming the third largest party, and proving it could win outside Belfast for the first time by taking the North Down seat that had been expected to go DUP.

Northern Ireland MP constituencies by party, 1983-2019 pic.twitter.com/9fLuweLKql

— The Irish Passport Podcast (@PassportIrish) December 14, 2019

Taking a longer-term view, the change is dramatic. In 1983, nationalist parties could only win in Foyle and West Belfast. For the first time, they now outnumber unionist MPs, and represent all border constituencies as well as three out of four Belfast seats.

https://twitter.com/niamhlear/status/1205850751484006405?s=20

Naomi O Leary

Irish journalist and host of The Irish Passport podcast on Irish culture, history and politics.