South Antrim comprises a lot of disparate places from its north-west where it runs alongside Lough Neagh from Toomebridge to Antrim town and Crumlin, then over to Ballyclare, Doagh and down into the urbanised fringes of Belfast and parts of Newtonabbey like Glengormley.
Although it comprises a lot of countryside as Gerry Lynch noted in 2007, “almost half of the electorate live in what, by most people’s definitions, would count as Belfast”. Most of the rest live or derive income in towns. Predominantly Protestant, there’s a growing Catholic minority in the Antrim area.
In the Brexit referendum, it was pretty much 50/50. In a constituency where nationalist parties took 23%, South Antrim demonstrates that the stereotype that took hold after the result (ie, Unionist = Leave/Nationalist = Remain) was very far removed from the actual reality.
When it comes to the race here, the 3000 vote gap between the present and former incumbents Paul Girvan of the DUP and the UUP’s Danny Kinihan counts in Northern Ireland as being on the outer edges of marginality, meaning that it is probably the latter’s number two.
As we’ll see when we come to look at South Down next, the historical patterns are not that easy to shift once a smaller party loses to a bigger one. The conditions that create the chances for the SDLP in Foyle are not really present in South Antrim for the UUP.
For a start this is one of those constituencies where the third tribe is more in evidence than many other places in Northern Ireland. Core identities are there but nowhere near as intense as they are in neighbouring North Belfast which is almost completely defined by religious attachment.
Unlike North Down, Ulster Unionism retains some of its traditional strength, but in 2015 when Kinahan won the seat he was greatly aided by the fact that he was facing uber Paisleyite Willie McCrea. Girvan is no such bogeyman and so his convening power as the liberal most likely is not as strong.
To add to his problems he faces John Blair co-opted MLA for a resurgent Alliance for him leap that gap. In the June council elections, they nearly doubled their seats and drew very close to the Ulster Unionists in their vote share. Two parties competing for “remainers” may give Girvan an easy in.
Blair is probably too far out to win, but if the pattern of the summer elections hold, might he pick up sympathetic Sinn Féin votes? Worth watching the lower order (Nationalist) candidates, Declan Kearney of Sinn Féin who sits on quite a bank of votes and Roisin Lynch (SDLP) on the night.
Likely winner: Paul Girvan. 3000 votes in our glacial climate is hard to find. The Alliance local council breakthrough won’t help Kinahan. Can he attract DUP leavers (or indeed, are there any in any numbers). He needs tail wind, and his leader is not long enough in the door to give him that.
“Westminster Bridge, London” by Arran Bee is licensed under CC BY
Mick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty
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