Well, it says Foyle, but it is actually Derry/Londonderry. Bit like Merseyside it describes a general place of belonging but by not naming it directly it uses a river to covers up the cracks in local identity. On the city side (the west bank) of the river the population now is almost entirely Catholic.
Overall within the old Derry City Council area in 2011 Catholics made up 74.8% of the population, whilst Protestants made up 22.3%. Both denominations are in slight decline since 2001. The rapid decline of the latter minority population has stabilised during the years of peace.
Economically, despite providing two deputy First Ministers to Stormont, Foyle has long performed well below its capacity as the second city of Northern Ireland. Poor transport links and its position on the western border contrast starkly with the regeneration of Newry for instance.
There is a long-running low level dissident republican presence in the poorer parts of the city which occasionally stokes up the old Troubles habit of recreational rioting, and which led to the death of Lyra McKee earlier this year. Policing has not bedded in here as successfully as in other places.
Politically, the SDLP have been dominant. But that was upset two years ago when the current incumbent Elisha McCallion (the niece of Sinn Féin’s Northern Ireland MEP Martina Anderson) put on a massive bounce to overtake the SDLP’s Mark Durkan who dropped about a thousand votes.
It was remarkable achievement fueled in part by sympathy for Martin McGuinness who had just died, and the polarisation that followed from the collapse of Stormont in the wake of the RHI scandal. Few saw it coming, perhaps with the exception of McCallion herself and her campaign team.
On the unionist side, Gary Middleton of the DUP got a 4.3% bounce bagging the largest number of Unionist votes in any Westminster election since bagged over 10,290 in 1997. This may also have been partly aided by some unionists ending their traditionally tactical support for Durkan.
The Remain “pact” (or arrangement, if you like) between the SDLP and Sinn Féin giving the latter a free run to unseat the DUP’s leader in the House of Commons will do very little to reverse this trend of alienation of unionist voters from both nationalist parties.
However, there have been developments. For a start, the SDLP reasserted a narrow lead over Sinn Féin in the May local elections for the Foyle area by a greater margin they’ve seen in local government since 2005. Secondly, it is party leader Colum Eastwood who is challenging the incumbent.
Eastwood, in contrast with McCallion, who as a non-sitting MP has had little hands-on media practice, will be aided by what have in his fifth year of leadership have quietly become relatively polished media performances in this campaign. But will abstentionism matter?
Indirectly, perhaps. Foyle (in contrast to West Belfast’s low turnout, discussed here already) is the least indifferent Remain constituency in the whole UK clocking up a massive 78.3% of the population. But in areas like Shantallow, it is the onset of Universal Credit and PIP that’s creating turbulence.
The other factor is Aontú’s candidate here. Dr Anne McCloskey is mining a deep seam of social conservatism among still devout Catholics. Both the SDLP and Sinn Féin have concerns about how much damage she will do them and whether it is disproportionately to one side or the other.
Others who are providing interest in the lower spots include Darren Guy of the UUP, Rachael Ferguson, Alliance and Shaun Harkin of PBP.
Likely winner: Colum Eastwood. This is only one of two seats where I think the change in wider conditions is clear enough to punt against the incumbent. Quality of candidate is never a reliable bet in Northern Irish politics, but consolidation of the SDLP vote should take him home.
With or without the support of other parties.
“Westminster Bridge, London” by Arran Bee is licensed under CC BY
Mick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty
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