#GE2019 Profile: West Belfast a crucial test for People Before Profit in Sinn Féin Central

Welcome to the poorest and the most Catholic constituency in Northern Ireland. Containing all of the Greater Falls and the poorest lower Shankill area this constituency saw the highest death rates during the troubles. The peace line here delineates two almost completely different worlds.

According to a profile Gerry Lynch wrote for the 2007 Assembly elections “over two-thirds of children were born to unmarried mothers in 2004”. Back then birthrates were even higher in the lower Shankill than anywhere on the Catholic side.

Whilst the Falls was always predominantly single identity, it wasn’t till the onset of the Troubles that the smattering of mixed areas at the foot of Divis and Black Mountains saw massive in and outflows as Catholics sought the relative haven of this vast northwestern quarter of the city.

The old Broadway Presbyterian Church has long since been renovated and transformed into the vibrant Culturlann centre for the Irish language. In the outer west, one of the few leftover Protestant communities now lives in the small, tight-knit community of Suffolk estate.

Isolation from other parts of the city forged this into one of the most unique communities in Northern Ireland. In the 70s and 80s government funnelled cash and community resources via the Church (and to some extent the SDLP) in an attempt to strengthen and undermine Sinn Féin and the IRA.

After SF took up electoral politics, large parts of the community infrastructure slowly tipped towards Sinn Féin’s influence if not control. The annual Feile is a celebration of the constituency’s political and social culture. The first Irish medium primary and secondary schools started here.

Although there are significant middle-class areas in Andersonstown and Finaghy, life for the vast majority of its population has not improved. The isolation, the multigenerational dominance of Republican paramilitaries and a traditionally low access into skilled work hasn’t helped its economy.

The abandonment of Stormont has left the new GAA stadium stranded years after similar soccer and rugby projects have been completed. Without a Stormont minister to grip matters, the project is stuck in planning whilst the value of original capital budget dwindles.

Finally, it is worth noting that turnout for the Brexit referendum was bottom of the UK table at 48.9%. Sinn Féin’s refusal to campaign and People Before Profit’s active endorsement were a contributory factor. The tiny SDLP constituency party actively campaigned for Remain but to little effect.

The dominance of Sinn Féin is evident in the 66.7% that Paul Maskey got back in 2017. Until the big push in the south, this is where the party was headquartered. If the political leadership has gone south, the electoral machinery is well oiled and is everywhere in evidence.

In the Assembly, it holds an incredible four out of five of the local seats. Going by the density of posters and past performance, the only contemporary challenge to its local hegemony is People Before Profit MLA Gerry Carroll. PBP’s campaign here is highly visible and well organised.

Carroll entered the 2016 Assembly with a landslide, but less than a year later it lost nearly half of that in an impressive counter move from Sinn Féin that cut Carroll’s vote by nearly 50% and pushed down the SDLP’s Alex Attwood well below the DUP’s Frank McCoubrey who is also running in this race.

That dominance should see Maskey (younger brother of the higher-profile Alex) home and hosed. The main interest will be to see if there’s a revival in the PBP vote ahead of the next election. They are certainly throwing the kitchen sink at it.  How will the reality of Brexit play here this time?

Other runners Paul Doherty (SDLP), Donnamarie Higgins (Alliance), and former Sinn Féin Ballymena councillor Monica Digney (Aontú)

Likely winner: Paul Maskey. Well, four out of five Assembly seats and 58.7% of the council vote says it all. This is Sinn Féin’s Rock of Gibraltar (if I can ever be forgiven for making the comparison).

Westminster Bridge, London” by Arran Bee is licensed under CC BY

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