Lagan Valley straddles the eponymous river that marks the boundary between two of the old county authorities of Antrim to the north and Down to the south. At its centre is the large town (although officially speaking it’s now the small city) of Lisburn.
Billowing out north and south is a large rural hinterland stretching to the small hill farms around the river’s source in the Dromara Hills on the edge of South Down, west to the fringe of Banbridge and then up to the Belfast Hills through to Stoneyford and Ballinderry and Lough Neagh.
Like Strangford, it used to be part of the heartland of Ulster Unionism, but that has since reversed since the present incumbent of the Westminster seat jumped ship alongside his UUP constituency colleague Norah Beare. That double whammy put it beyond the reach.
Whatever the vagaries of Brexit, there’s no real challenge to Jeffrey Donaldson here. His only unionist rival Robbie Butler is locally popular, but not particularly outspoken on Brexit so there should be no direct challenge for Donaldson here.
The interest really lies in the competition at the lower end of the race between candidates who may be their party’s pick in the next Assembly depending on how well or otherwise they do this time out. The Alliance put in an especially good council performance right across in the Lisburn area.
Slugger understands that there was serious internal competition for Sorcha Eastwood‘s Lagan Valley Westminster ticket, since if the candidate can push up the vote (most likely at the expense of the UUP), they’ll give themselves a fighting chance for succeeding Trevor Lunn as MLA.
Next comes Ally Haydock the SDLP candidate who lost out on a council seat in Killultagh to the Sinn Féin candidate Gary McCleave after she stepped into Mairia Cahill’s shoes when the latter discovered the law covering NI council elections demanded she disclose her home address.
What we’re really looking at here is a scrap between the two nationalist parties to get into pole position as a successor for the Assembly seat Pat Catney unexpectedly won for the SDLP in 2017 at the expense of the UUP’s Jenny Palmer.
Likely winner: Jeffrey Donaldson.
“Westminster Bridge, London” by Arran Bee is licensed under CC BY
Mick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty
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