Good piece from Katy Hayward…
The UK-EU stand-off over the backstop is no longer in the realms of negotiation. The topic has become a mutually incapacitating snare. The more forcefully one side stresses its position on the backstop, the more justified the other feels for not bending from its opposite bearing. And thus the noose tightens.
Getting out of this bind is increasingly difficult because Johnson has posited the abolition of the backstop as an iconic issue for demonstrating UK sovereignty itself.
She goes on to note the Johnson administration is expressing scepticism over Mrs May’s axiomatic assumptions in agreeing to the backstop in the first place…
Whereas May’s government had accepted in principle the reasons why the avoidance of a hard border went hand in hand with upholding the 1998 agreement, Johnson’s is much more sceptical. It is not only querying exactly how important the openness of the Border is to peace, it is beginning to ask whether the very premise of the backstop is in breach of the agreement itself.
Johnson’s team is beginning to test the backstop against the obligations of the British government as set out in the 1998 agreement. Not to put too fine a point on it: the UK government is coming to meet the Irish Government in battle over the interpretation of the 1998 agreement itself.
And…
This argument is more nuanced than the ones we have seen in the past from Brexiteers, who claimed Varadkar and Coveney’s insistence on the backstop is merely a form of unreconstructed irredentism. Instead, the UK government is wondering whether to concede on the backstop would mark a devastating sacrifice of sovereignty, national identity, and legal jurisdiction. All this would be, in its view, exemplified over what happens to Northern Ireland, and specifically, what it would mean for unionists there.
The debate over the backstop has risen to such a point that what happens in post-Brexit Northern Ireland is now seen by both the UK and Ireland as emblematic of their capacity to protect and represent their citizens.
This carries enormous implications. The obvious one is that Ireland is seen to represent the interests of the pro-remain, nationalist, and Irish in the North, while the UK represents the interests of the pro-leave, unionist and British there. But there are no such two distinct communities in Northern Ireland.
The pro-Remain voters in Northern Ireland are not all nationalist; those who support the backstop are not all Irish. What is more (why should this need saying?), the British government has a responsibility to protect the prosperity, wellbeing and interests of all in Northern Ireland.
For all the endless talk of the Conservatives being willing to sell out the DUP, Hayward has bad/good news…
Given the risks of a no deal to Northern Ireland, it is significant that Johnson has ignored the path of least resistance towards getting changes to the protocol that would please Brexiteers. He could have sought to remove the all-UK dimensions to the backstop, have a harder (customs) border down the Irish Sea and (in theory at least) be done with it.
The fact that he hasn’t taken this route is not only a sign that he is not (yet) willing to “shaft” the DUP but actually that the Northern Ireland-specific dimensions of the backstop are now very much on the British radar too. This is not necessarily a form of newly rediscovered unionist sentiment from England. But it does mean that Northern Ireland is now seen as totemic for the UK’s Brexit project.
A key rule in politics is never to make a threat unless you are willing to see it through. Johnson clearly has no appetite to jump through the parliamentary hoops that bound his predecessor into a sterile domestic stalemate. This is no longer just about laws and protocols (which has been the EU’s trump card) and more about politics.
Mick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty
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