This Derry DEA is a six seater that in 2014 resulted in the SDLP beating Sinn Féin in first preferences but not in terms of seats – Sinn Féin’s 3 candidates took 3 seats and the SDLP took 2 after standing 4 candidates. This time the SDLP are running Angela Dobbins, Rory Farrell and Brian Tierney, Sinn Féin are putting forward Sandra Duffy, Caoimhe McKnight, Neil McLaughlin and Aileen Mellon.
This is also the sitting MP Elisha McCallion’s old stomping ground from the days of Derry City Council.
Last time around SF and SDLP had about 2.9 quotas each.
The number of candidates for each party in 2019 has been reversed with Sinn Féin standing 4 and the SDLP 3. Sinn Féin are perhaps basing this on the surge in their Assembly and Westminster vote in 2017 and are rightly ambitious but running 4 does carry a degree of risk.
Dee Quigley took a seat as an Independent in 2014 and came in just below quota on the first count. He has since been replaced by Warren Robinson who will be standing on the Independent ticket this time around.
There are a group of 4 Independent councillors on Derry and Strabane Council that have worked quite closely over the past term and are running together this time under the slogan ‘Think Independently, vote Independent’. Incumbency will be a plus to them though they will face tough challenges including one from People before Profit’s Eamonn McCann in The Moor DEA.
The unknown factor here is the candidacy of Dr Anne McCloskey who represents Aontú’s best chance of taking a council seat in the north next month. A GP in Shantallow for 28 years McCloskey previously ran as an Independent in the 2016 Assembly election and polled a respectable 3,410 votes. At that time she was nominated by her now competitor Warren Robinson. She will poll well here.
People before Profit are running in the 4 Derry City DEAs for this council area and their candidate in this area is Nuala Crilly. However their breakthrough seat in Derry is more likely to come via Eamonn McCann than in Ballyarnett.
Without McCloskey standing a good bet here would have been on the status quo returning. However her candidature could impact on the other incumbents in a number of ways. The SDLP’s more conservative voters that like her position on abortion, the Independent voters that gave her a number 1 before in 2016 and a number of Sinn Féin voters that know her personally through her previous work might give her consideration on polling day.
The SDLP and Sinn Féin will also be hoping that Aontú and PBP standing might split the Independent vote and allow either one of their respective candidates in to take an extra seat.
Danny McCloskey will be seeking to build on his last outing for Alliance but it will be hard to make himself heard in this very competitive field.
Twitter : @daithimckay
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