Out of respect to the voters, the governments and parties must spell out in detail where they stand on the Assembly by next week. Otherwise the election is an insult to democracy.

Although only one of 13 MPs  to deny Theresa May the green light for calling a Westminster general election, Mark Durkan MP surely got it right for  Northern Ireland.   

I was not asking for an election last week or the week before; I was arguing that any move to an election in the near future would not help the negotiations in Northern Ireland. My mind has not changed, so why should I pretend that it has?

Of course, this general election has been called without regard to the sensitive ongoing negotiations in Northern Ireland, and it is hard to see how it will not have an impact on those negotiations. First, it will probably colour the parties’ attitude to some of the issues we are dealing with, and it will certainly colour their attitude towards each other and their level of trust. Also, the British Government will not be in a position to give undertakings or commitments in the context of those negotiations as purdah kicks in, so how will we get any sort of comprehensive agreement in such circumstances?

In truth a fifth election in two years will make very little difference to our political scene. A sixth for the Assembly on the same day or another day would be gesture worthy of  Pontius Pilate. Surges or retreats by one party or another only  harden up positions, whether aggressively or defensively.  We should know by now they do not concentrate minds. How could they, when there can be no outright winner, a very weak sense of the common public interest and  only conditional allegiance to their own flawed democratic  institutions? A political system which is strangled by mutual main party vetoes has the seeds of its own destruction in its DNA.  So rather than rate its salvation as first priority, all the energy piles into the minor shifts of opinion that one day just possibly might make a difference in  a date with destiny . Or not.

This is what really turns the guys on, identity politics. And of course grudgingly or not, you can see their point. Those are the toys they’re given to play with  and they’re a lot more fun rather than getting on with their homework.  While they lack the power to call  elections they sure can fight any number of  them forever and a day,  on the basis of  inching a little closer to UI or keeping it out of reach. Somehow – and we never know entirely quite how- the money is always found to campaign.

A unionist pact is surely inevitable and there will be  a more limited understanding between Sinn Fein and the SDLP. Denis Bradley’s slightly obscure  piece in the Irish News  makes sense as a coded plea to Sinn Fein  not to  contest the Foyle seat too hard, in order to let Mark Durkan, the heir of Hume back in again, and to promote his even more ambitious  theme of persuading Sinn Fein to recognise their limitations.

Sinn Féin is presently strong but continues to suffer from the blindness that is inherent in the republican project and was easily detected in McGuinness. He and his party were blind to the reality that Sinn Féin are the last people in the world to be able to reconcile with unionism. Charm and a warm handshake does not heal everything. There is too much hurt and death in that mix. They are also blind to the fact are the last people to lead on the Brexit issue. They have neither the knowledge, the people or the experience within that world. They would be better following other more experienced political parties into that morass.

For  a few more days, James Brokenshire  will stick doggedly to his  threadbare script that is the despair of so many people outside the parties. At last, it has now produced a perceptible  crack  in the British-Irish facade.  

Mr Flanagan said: “The Secretary of State has two choices in the event that the talks process doesn’t produce an appropriate and satisfactory result, that is: a series of fresh elections, or direct rule.

“And in that regard I made it quite clear to him the position of the Irish Government is such that we will not support, under any circumstances, direct rule from Westminster in Northern Ireland.”

 

F or the moment, Mark Durkan is right;  it is now too late for the British government to intervene substantially  in this talks sequence  until after June 9.  One urgent decision  flagged up in the Belfast Telegraph is what  to do about the  future of welfare. Will full strength  “Tory cuts” be imposed or will the Evason mitigations be implemented in the spirit of the lapsed  Fresh Start? Who cares?

We have only questions, no answers. Yesterday I took part  in a despiriting  Talkback discussion on Radio Ulster with Brian Feeney the  Irish  News columnist and Peter Osborne the chair of the Community Relations Council, interrupted with interviews with politicians. All of us the politicians included, were mere commentators, nobody took responsibility for the situation.  And none of the politicians minded. That was the most depressing thing.

Aside from blaming the other guy, the present standoff has two other pernicious characteristics. One is the magic circle of participants which excludes not only the public but most members of their own parties.

The other is the decision to leave the parties largely to their own devices because the topics are largely devolved to Stormont and therefore no longer the business of Westminster. This has been a serious, even potentially fatal mistake.

Sinn Fein could not have written a better script  for the  erosion of Westminster’s authority and prestige, even from the low base of  the crisis management that was Fresh Start.  Whatever the constitutional position – and that’s now increasingly in dispute – Dublin is now the more visible player in our affairs. Charlie Flanagan’s  insistence  on no direct rule from Westminster ” under any circumstances”  out of such a diplomatic mouth  shows how the balance has shifted – assuming he has an alternative. At least they debate us in the Dail and sound as if they know roughly where the place is on the map.  Therefore this Westminster election will be seen as no  more than another sectarian counting of heads.

There will no progress unless there is intervention from the outside the local parties on matters of substance. At the very least by the end of next week, the governments  and the parties separately should publish papers which explain in some detail where they stand and what is needed to close the gaps.

How wide a scope for an Irish Language Act? Why is  this otherwise obscure  topic important?  Spell out the  differences over the legacy. What do  you mean by a rights-based society?   SF says Arlene Foster is probably innocent of wrong doing over the RHI. Why oppose her as FM? What are the Brexit concerns  for Northern Ireland and  how will you address them?  What are  the domestic policy priorities and can you agree of programme for government?   Why do you think the other side is gaming the negotiations?  How do you test their sincerity? What is  the scope for compromise?

The public – voting and non-voting – have a right to know. Creeping direct rule is woefully inadequate.

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  • file

    Brian, did you not listen to the other Brian when you were on that show? The first step that needs to happen before Sinn Fein even start negotiating about restoring Stormont is that EVERYTHING that has already been agreed in previous talks has to be implemented. Then, I would suggest, the DUP needs to state publicly how it is going to change its behaviour utterly and actually operate power-sharing. When those two steps have been completed, haggling over bean-counting and who gets which hollow ministry can start. This is what SF voters voted for – no return to the status quo. The party will lose its supporters if it accepts anything less than those two initial steps.

  • Ciaran74

    Salient point Brian. You keep mentioning across a number of pieces SF say AF is probably innocent of wrongdoing concerning RHI. You’re making it appear a broad judgement when personal wrongdoing is only one line of investigation. Criminal/contrived wrongdoing and malpractice are very separate outcomes. RHI and the attitudes towards it have not dissipated for the public, however much politicians are ready to move on.

  • murdockp

    My Business Rates go up by 20% next week as does all the SME’s rates in NI because you could not agree to replace the small business rates relief scheme.

    This move will put many businesses under, not that many politicians even care.

  • Jag

    So, we won’t have a government until after June 8th? Or maybe just an election called then for sometime in August maybe?

    By 2nd June, each MLA will have been paid £12k and run up an average of £18k expenses. That’s £1m in salaries and £1.6m in expenses.

    For what?

  • file

    It keeps them out of trouble and off the dole (just like the standing army of unneeded civil servants), and at least they pay taxes on it.