Here’s last Thursday’s SluggerReport. It kicks off with comment on that SF did not register as a ‘registered campaigner’ story.
It has been pointed out that individuals in SF did campaign against Brexit, and some appeared on GUE/NGL posters. They may even have spent up to £10k. But as a named party they were nowhere to be seen.
And for Upper Bann:
- In May, Carla Lockhart got 7,993, several hundred above 7615, putting the DUP on 1.86 quotas. By contrast, the two UUP MLAs have 1.3 quotas. Even with .38 Unionist quotas the second seat is in question.
- Sinn Fein has 1.5 quotas, whilst the SDLP has just 0.57 quotas. That could make for an interesting fight for the second nationalist seat. But Kelly needs access to Alliance preferences sooner than she did last year.
- Despite the fact her stock is not high with unionist voters, Kelly might provide them (who are likely to maintain a higher turnout than nationalists) with a means of punishing Sinn Fein for its role in the crisis.
And for Newry and Armagh:
- The UUP have .85 quotas here, the DUP just over a quota, and the extra .2 of a quota sat with Paul Berry. I make that a solid 2 Unionist quotas which will inter-transfer taking two of the five seats out of contention.
- That’s four nationalists chasing just three seats. One of them is almost certain to lose. Unsurprisingly early reports suggest that SF is throwing the kitchen sink at this one. But McNulty has more than a quota.
- Elsewhere 2.5 quotas might get three. The very polarised nature of this constituency means there’s going to be little to spare. Boylan in the north should come home, possibly with Fearon and Murphy in the balance.