I’m putting this here for those who wish to comment, from the ICM poll for the Guardian. First thing to note is that there is no statistically significant change, but the position is not great for Labour…
Conservatives: 43% (up 2)
Labour: 26% (down 2)
Ukip: 11% (down 2)
Lib Dems: 8% (down 1)
Greens: 6% (up 2)
Now, 17% is likely to be accumulated damage from a summer of very nasty and public in-fighting. You pays your money and you takes your choice as to who is to blame for that. But the poll suggests that other critical gaps are even wider…
Today's ICM poll shows a massive gender gap between Tories & Labour – Theresa May has more than double the support from women than Corbyn pic.twitter.com/afbpwLBpWy
— Matt Dathan (@matt_dathan) October 10, 2016
And although in the case of 18-24s Labour has a solid advantage, amongst the very oldest (75+) the slip in pro-Labour sentiment is shocking (just 7%)… And whilst just a year ago, Labour was deemed to have been struggling to get 36.7% in England…
ENGLAND & WALES ONLY figures from ICM poll
CON 36.5%
LAB 36.7%
LD 7.9%
UKIP 12.9%
A CON to LAB swing since GE 2010 of 5.2%— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 6, 2015
…the Conservatives now lead in England by 25%. Labour are reckoned to need to get their noses ahead by 13% in England to beat the Tories.
The Referendum seems to have been the turning point. Labour is struggling (as they did after the Scottish poll) to account for why critical numbers of their own constituents backed nationalist right arguments rather than a left-led Labour party...
Mick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty
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