Times / YouGov results on the Big Debate:
Which side won ? Remain: 34% Leave: 39% Not sure:17%
How will you vote? Remain 41% Leave 40% Not sure 8%
Never mind the polls. How was it for you on the big stage? Was it about as relevant as the Eurovision Song Contest? More or less fun? Either way, didn’t they all do well! And that was the problem. It was a no score draw, both sides shooting and blocking like mad.
So why was there no clear winner?
First lack of trust lies very deep, in politicians, big business, bankers, pundits after the MPs expenses scandal and the banking crash. We are in the middle of a people’s revolt.
People fold their arms, ask troll’s rude questions and challenge the politicians with “ impress me,” knowing, even wanting them to fail. Widespread cynicism is filling the chasm left by the decline of the old class loyalties tied to party. Nowhere more is this true than in the bleak north east of England and in areas like it, where ominously Brexit or indifference seem to prevail.
Most the time the battle was between blue on blue, Tory versus Tory, until last night. The Remain Tory faction was barely more enthusiastic about the EU system than Leave. This was an obvious weakness they only clocked at the very last minute. Most of the time the campaign was about the narcissism of small Tory differences.
In spite of the lies and over stretched interpretations, why no killer facts?
The campaign was fought on shifting sands. Future projections of loss or gain are notoriously fallible. The public know this from the usual party battle.
It was fought on narrow ground. How much worse/ better off would we be? £4320 a year seems suspiciously precise. If we stopped £350 million/£140 million a week going to “Europe” we could spend it on the NHS” sounds too easy by half. There is a paradox at work here. Our personal finances are terribly important to us. But after a while they begin to pall. Or we get frightened off them in case we discover we’ve made a mess of them all along. When it doesn’t provide easy answers – which is almost never – we look to political debate to distract us from the anxieties of daily life, even lift our sights a little.
Which brings me to the old familiar compulsion, identity politics. Who are “ we “ in this debate? If “we” are Europe the Leave campaign is narrow minded and selfish. Why should we not bung a few billions a year to eastern European countries which never ever knew prosperity and democracy before the Fall of the Wall 27 years ago?. In Ireland at least we know the benefits of improving infrastructure and basic services. I’ve seen swathes of territory in Spain Portugal and southern Italy transformed in my lifetime – not to mention southern Ireland. If “we” are European then the Leave arguments are not only selfish but short sighted. For a more prosperous southern and eastern continent means a bigger market to trade with.
Another utterly unexpected change produced this referendum. That was the extent of the rise of English nationalism, affected by ethnic pressures but resisting outright racism, and actually shared by many of the settled non-white British.
In part but only in part, this is an answer to rampant Scottish nationalism. The most stable polity on earth, untouched by invasion or foreign occupation for centuries, is in state of quiet but definite flux. The English right are invoking the spirit or Dunkirk 1940 or the Elizabethan merchant adventurers, both a response, it should be remembered, to the threat of foreign invasion. If there is a threat today it comes from German car imports, not panzers or Spanish galleons.
The UK – or more accurately GB – is not immune after all from forces that tore Europe apart for centuries. It’s unlikely that the state of flux has reached its peak whatever the referendum result. The narrowness of the polling shows that saving the Union with Scotland is a low priority. The star of the night Ruth Davidson the leader of the Scottish Conservatives didn’t even even mention it. The TUC general secretary Frances O’Grady won only tepid applause when she said:
The Irish prime minister has said that if we come out of the EU, there will have to be border controls. And let me tell you, the way that’s seen in Belfast and Derry, I really worry for our future. We should be building bridges between people, not walls.
Ireland north and south have their own different trajectories and may be coming to accept that the appeal of their rival nationalisms has its limitations. We have surely learned that our identities, while shaped by it are not completely defined by the nation state. Drawing on the metaphor of the family, our natural relationships are formative. But only by living in the wider world do we find out who we really are. Vote Remain is the healthy thing to do.