#GE16 Exit Polls show Government parties set for a beating

Well it’s all over and we are just waiting for the vote to be counted but two exit polls make terrible reading for the government and should make Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein happy.

RTE

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FG 24.8%, Lab 7.1%, FF 21.1%, SF 16%, IND 11%, AAA-PBP 4.7%, SD 3.7%, GP 3.6%, IA 3%, REN 2.4%, OTH 2.6%

Irish Times/MRBI

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Some takeaways

  1. If true this is Enda Kenny’s worst ever General Election performance as leader, he scored 27.1% in 2007 and 36.1% in 2011.
  2. Fianna Fail are back in business; in places like Munster and parts of Dublin, the party will increase its seats and should come just behind Fine Gael.
  3. Sinn Fein are now the leaders of the left. If you look at the RTE exit poll, it now has more support than Labour, People Before Profit/Anti-Austerity Alliance and Social Democrats combined.
  4. The Green Party has done very well. 3.5% is a strong showing for a party wiped out in 2011, which proves the staying power of the party as a whole.
  5. Labour’s disaster is going to be brutal as they are set to suffer a double digit swing against them.
  6. A second election within a few months is very likely in these polls. Fianna Fail will now feel confident and will seek to become the largest party next time. Moreover, on those numbers it is hard to see how Enda Kenny and Joan Burton remain as party leaders.

David McCann holds a PhD in North-South relations from University of Ulster. You can follow him on twitter @dmcbfs

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