Full results of all the Northern Ireland constituencies…

All the results are now in. SF have lost Fermanagh and South Tyrone. It has been a great election for the UUP with Tom Elliot taking Fermanagh and South Tyrone and Danny Kinahan taking South Antrim for the UUP. Alliances only MP Naomi Long lost her seat to Gavin Robinson in East Belfast.

The BBC have some really snazzy charts in their election section. All the charts below are from the BBC. Commentary on each result by Kris Nixon (Belfast Barman)

NI

all-ni

 

Belfast North (Get more data for this constituency on the BBC site)

belfast-north

Nigel Dodds DUP was a clear winner here, while he increased his vote by just over 4000, the UUP candidate in 2010, Fred Cobain, only received 2837 votes…so the unionist operation to get out their voters must have done something right… Perhaps this mystery letter had some influence, DUP reports however that it allegedly was a Sinn Fein election ploy were disseminated by Twitter, which from my experience, isn’t exactly overflowing with core DUP voters. Of all parties and/or candidates who stood in both 2010 and 2015, all increased their vote share except for Alban Maginness of the SDLP who shed over 1000 votes.

 

 

Belfast South (Get more data for this constituency on the BBC site)

belfast-south

The big story here is how much Alasdair McDonnell dropped his majority, 27.3% above the 2nd place DUP in 2010 to just 2.3% above this time. The full count isn’t in across the UK but I would be surprised if many candidates were elected to Westminster with below 10,000 votes…could this by the worst mandate in the UK? Paula Bradshaw gave a good effort, polling even higher than 2010 Alliance candidate Anna Lo and increasing her vote tally when she ran for UCU-NF in the 2010 vote by 801. For all the fuss made about Jonathan Bell, he increased the DUP vote by 554 but this represented a 1.5% drop of votes compared to 2010 for the party. Claire Bailey has been widely praised across social media from many different political corners for her election performance, increasing the Green Party vote by more than double was no easy ask. Rodney McCune, representing garnered 3549 votes, which is nearly 2500 down on the UCU-NF candidate (Paula Bradshaw) received in 2010…not a good performance, being beaten into 5th by Maírtín Ó Muilleoir. Docter McDonnell won but his electoral performance is quite frankly abysmal, a leadership change must surely be imminent, double jobbing is, in my mind, not acceptable..but he cannot lead an NI party whilst in Westminster, something must give.

 

Belfast West (Get more data for this constituency on the BBC site)

belfast-west

Paul Maskey won and did it by increasing nearly 3000 votes on 2010, his % share though was reduced by 16%, there is only one story in Belfast West however, the electoral performance of People Before Profits Gerry Carroll…2010: 1751 votes with a % share of 7.6….2015: 6798 votes with a % share of 19.2. This is huge, was this a protest vote however? Or could this be a launch platform for Carroll to join Allister et al in the oddball corner.

 

Belfast East (Get more data for this constituency on the BBC site)

belfast-east

Gavin Robinson won back Peter Robinsons heartland, his nirvana, but with a unionist pact necessary to achieve this, does this say more about the DUP than Alliance? Naomi Long lost the seat by increasing her vote by over 4000 and her % share by 10 full points…Some loss that is! If you combine the DUP, TUV & UCU-NF from 2010, you have around 20600…Gavin Robinson won the seat with 19575 votes…so the pact really did everything for him, if you go back further to when Peter Robinson defended the seat in 2005, the DUP & UUP vote was 24,437, so in comparison to those heady days of unionism in East Belfast, Gavin dropped 5000 seats, or rather the parties dropped them in 2010 when Peter Robinson lost and Gavin didn’t get all of them back again. Also is there anything to be said for UUP voters taking the hump with being instructed to vote DUP? 4000 extra votes for Alliance suggest yes… Good showing for Ross Brown in his first run at parliament, throwing aside 2010 candidates Niall Ó Donnghaile & Mary Muldoon of SF & SDLP respectively, to finish 4th on 1,058 votes.

 

Lagan Valley (Get more data for this constituency on the BBC site)

lagan-valley

A huge majority for Jeffrey Donaldson.

 

North Antrim (Get more data for this constituency on the BBC site)

antrim-north

A walk in the park for Ian Paisley Jr, he did lose around 1500 votes though, the TUV also showed strength here with councillor Timothy Gaston coming in a solid second above Daithi McKay of Sinn Fein. Robin Swann, UUP chief whip narrowly scraped behind SF by less than 100 votes, whereas last election UCU-NF finished 600 votes behind SF. so progress of sorts. Jayne Dunlop improved her 2010 showing by adding 1000 or so votes on to her 1368 tally from 2010.

 

South Antrim (Get more data for this constituency on the BBC site)

antrim-south

This one must have hurt the DUP, all their talk of bringing 9 or even 10 MP’s to the westminster party went out the window early on when estimates were showing the UUP candidate Danny Kinahan performing well…inheriting the seat that UCU-NF competed in with Reg Empey at the helm, Kinahan improved their tally by over 1500 votes which is almost exactly how many William McCrea lost between 2010 and now, causing him to lose his seat. I had been predicting this to be the curveball of NI Election night. With Kinahan expressing support for the Equal Marriage bill tabled by Sinn Fein recently, the only MLA firmly in either of the 2 unionist camps who have announced support, perhaps the ship-jumpers are the moderate unionists we hear so much of but see so little.

 

East Antrim (Get more data for this constituency on the BBC site)

east-antrim

No great shakes here, Sammy Wilson lost just under 2000 votes but the gap to UUP (or UCU-NF in 2010) in 2nd remained roughly the same. Alliance Party chief whip Stewart Dickson performed much better than 2010 candidate Gerry Lynch, UKIP entrant Noel Jordan pulled in 3,660 votes from not running last time, the other parties are pretty much where they were before polling day.

 

Strangford (Get more data for this constituency on the BBC site)

strangford

Held by Jim Shannon with an increased vote total, UUP in 2nd dropped drastically from their UCU-NF days, from Mike Nesbitt coming in the silver position with 9,050 in 2010 to Robert Burgess for UUP getting just 4,868 in second. Alliance Party candidate Kellie Armstrong increased her parties showing by nearly 2000, UKIP came straight in with more than 2,000 and the TUV are pretty much where they were.

 

North Down (Get more data for this constituency on the BBC site)

north-down

The independent heartland of NI nowadays, Lady Sylvia Hermon is returned to parliament but with a greatly reduced majority, DUP’s Alex Easton outperformed UCU-NF 2010 candidate Ian Parsley by nearly 2000. Former Lord Mayor of Bangor Andrew Muir increased the tally of Stephen Farry from 2010 to 3,086. Steven Agnew gave a good result with 1,958, up from 1,043 in 2010.

 

South Down (Get more data for this constituency on the BBC site)

south-down

What a quiet contest this turned out to be… Margaret Ritchie is returned to parliament but with more than 2000 less votes, Chris Hazzard comes in 2nd, just behind Caitriona Ruane in 2010, not a bad showing for a young MLA who was co-opted in and that this was his first election. Jim Wells suffered a very small drop and Harold McKee of UUP out performed John McCallister of UCU-NF. Alliance candidate Martyn Todd tripled his 2010 predecessor David Griffin, from 560 to 1,622. Henry Reilly of UKIP came 5th with 3,044.

 

Upper Bann (Get more data for this constituency on the BBC site)

upper-bann

This was rumoured to be a close run race and it didn’t disappoint for most of the evening, exit polls seemed to go one way or the other, in the end it was David Simpson, the incumbent, who is being returned to Westminster, UUP candidate Jo-Anne Dobson outstripped UCU-NF candidate in 2010 Harry Hamilton. Cat Seeley of Sinn Fein also outvoted her predecessor John O’Dowd. Dolores Kelly lost 1000 votes and a position in the top 3 parties here.

 

Newry & Armagh (Get more data for this constituency on the BBC site)

newry

Mickey Brady comfortably keeps his seat for Sinn Fein, Danny Kennedy of UUP however leapfrogs Dominic Bradley of SDLP into 2nd place, from 8,558 to 16,312…this will be one to watch next time around. Former GAA star Justin mcNulty increased on Bradleys vote but to no avail.

 

Foyle (Get more data for this constituency on the BBC site)

foyle

Kept by SDLP’s Mark Durkan with a slight increase, SF dropped almost the equivalent. DUP are also within touching distance of 2010 results, nothing of note here at all.

 

East Londonderry (Get more data for this constituency on the BBC site)

eastlderry

Gregory Campbell increased his majority, other candidates are essentially as is however, a safe DUP seat where nothing much seems to happen. CISTA got more than 500 votes though.

 

West Tyrone (Get more data for this constituency on the BBC site)

west-tyrone

Pat Doherty kept West Tyrone but he didn’t keep the 1300 voters who left for pastures new. DUP & UUP candidates Tom Buchanan & Ross Hussey respectively, stayed as were, with the exception of SDLP’s Daniel McCrossan coming up in between them and splitting their vote straight down the middle, 6,747, 6,444 & 6,144.

 

Fermanagh & South Tyrone (Get more data for this constituency on the BBC site)

From the BBC

From the BBC

The other unionist pact that worked out… Tom Elliott powered in with 23,608 votes to the 24,078 of Sinn Feins Michelle Gildernew. John Coyle of SDLP gave a decent showing considering the media mob around his un-prepared and inexperienced interview on BBC.

See Fermanagh coverage here…

 

Mid Ulster  (Get more data for this constituency on the BBC site)

mid-ulster

Francie Molloy, SF, ran away with this, 13,000+ votes ahead of Sandra Overend of UUP in 2nd place, Mid Ulster was a barren candidate landscape in the 2013 by-election, Sinn Fein, Independent, SDLP & Alliance competed…this time around there were 9 candidates, the electorate split wide open, not much between UUP, DUP & SDLP, then TUV sitting in the very middle with UKIP, Alliance Party, Workers Party & NI Conservatives left to pick up the scraps. Molloy country.

 

  • Jag

    Terrific result for unionism. Dreadful result for nationalism.
    A Conservative/DUP coalition either formal or on an issue-by-issue basis looks quite possible.
    SF lost share in all (or all but one) of the 18 constituencies. Ditto with SDLP.

    Back to the drawing board for nationalism. Plainly the voters didn’t come out and the message didn’t hit home.

    However SNP victory probably means a re-run of independence referendum in a couple of years and Scotland will be independent by 2020.

    Pacts work.

    Northern Ireland has taken a backwards step in terms of liberalism.

  • NMS

    It is a strange day when the 6,798 votes for Belfast’s own toytown Trot, Gerry Carroll is a positive sign. West Befast is going to send its own Richard Boyd Barrett, (without of course the nice accent and famous mammy) to the Assembly next year!

    There will be opposition from both Left & Right in the Assembly, which will make interesting times for both the DUP & Provos. I await to see the wreck a TUV, Trot, Green administrative alliance (a Technical Group?) will be able to cause to the cosy cartel of DUP/Sinn Féin.

    I wonder does Gerry still want his border plebiscite?

  • NMS

    Jag, A great victory for apathy, or a plague on all your houses. Turnout was up slightly in FST South Antrim and East Belfast, but down everywhere else?

    The parties will be lucky if they get close to 50% next year.

  • Zeno

    “Speaking at the Belfast election count centre, Sinn Fein president Gerry Adams says neither the DUP nor “any rabid Tory” can change the Good Friday Agreement if unionists enter into a coalition with the Conservatives. Credit: Belfast Telegraph”

    Eh?

  • Cue Bono

    The silly old man should stick to naked trampolining with his Teddy Bear. The Sinners took a kicking in this election and we can hope and pray that the southern electorate will deliver the coup de grace.

  • Jag

    NMS turnout was up marginally overall

    2010 Electorate 1169184 turnout 678013 % 57.99% (Cain http://cain.ulst.ac.uk/issues/politics/election/2010west/rw2010.htm)

    2015 Electorate 1236683 turnout 58.1% (BBC)

    Not quite the same as Scotland roaring for the SNP but this has been an impressive results orientated victory for unionism. Nationalism needs some serious reflection and SF needs credible policies.

  • Jag

    If the Tories do get 329 (current BBC prediction) then they have a majority of six which will make governing uncomfortable. There were 20 byelections in 2010-2015 the Conservatives won just one. The DUP’s eight MPs may become indispensable within a year.

  • JohnTheOptimist

    These results are a disaster for nationalism in N. Ireland. It is all the more galling when put aside the triumph of nationalism just across the water in Scotland. If Milliband, Clegg and Farage are resigning today, they should be joined by the political leaders of nationalism in N. Ireland. Nationalism in N. Ireland is going nowhere.

    These results were signposted by the results in last year’s Euro elections, which showed an identical trend. The stark facts are as follows:

    2010 Westminster election:

    total unionist vote: 44.1 per cent
    total nationalist vote: 42.0 per cent

    2015 Westminster election:

    total unionist vote: 47.9 per cent (+3.8 per cent)
    total nationalist vote: 38.4 per cent (-3.6 per cent)

    note: for these figures, I exclude Alliance and Greens.

    In the traditional nationalist heartland of Mid-Ulster, the total nationalist vote is down a staggering 5.2 per cent. Fermanagh South Tyrone has been lost. And in North Belfast Gerry Kelly has been humiliated (deservedly so in my opinion). The political leaders of nationalism in N. Ireland need to give us an explanation as to why they are failing so spectacularly.

    As I see it, The main problem is that the nationalist parties in N. Ireland have abandoned traditional moderate non-violent nationalism of the type that has swept the board in Scotland. The SDLP peddle a soft left ideology, identical to that of UK Labour and Irish Labour, both of which are in decline and being rejected by their own electorate. For the SDLP the clue is in their name. They are not a nationalist party in any meaningful sense, but rather another social democratic party of the type that are in decline all over Europe. As for SF, leaving aside their record of terrorism, gangsterism, sectarianism and general air of menace, their current policies are a mixture of marxist voodoo economics and extreme social liberalism, as evidenced by their obsession with abortion and gay marriage. I’d say the latter is one of the reasons their vote has declined significantly in rural Ulster.

    In contrast, the unionist parties have remained closer to sensible economic policies and to their communities’ traditional social values. For this they are now being rewarded by the electorate. We were told by the liberal-dominated media that the DUP would suffer greatly because of its lack of enthusiasm for gay marriage and abortion. It doesn’t seem to have happened.

    What is necessary is for SF and the SDLP to dissolve themselves. A new nationalist party should be formed, modelled on the SNP. That is, it should eschew violence in all its forms, have no links with any paramilitary organisation, be totally non-sectarian, adopt sensible economic policies, and allow freedom of conscience (rather than the party whip) on social issues like abortion and gay marriage.

  • Jag

    “What is necessary is for SF and the SDLP to dissolve themselves. A new nationalist party should be formed, modelled on the SNP. ” Or maybe FF should bring forward their plans to field candidates in the 2016 Assembly elections.

  • Dan

    I suppose in their desperation Sinn Fein will have to engineer another crisis at Stormont over welfare.
    Let it fall.

  • Jag

    And the DUP has leapfrogged SF to become the largest political party in NI. Some serious reflection needed.

  • NMS

    Jag, Yes I saw that after posting, but down where there was no real contests.

  • sk

    I think it’s time that Sinn Fein and the SDLP seriously consider arranging tribal pacts of their own in order to maximise the nationalist vote.

  • barnshee

    Each party should reflect- most of the electorate who voted did not vote for their party

  • JohnTheOptimist

    Actually I think my figures were wrong. I didn’t include Sylvia Hermon in the total unionist vote total, as she was officially an Independent, but in practice a unionist. Include her and the total unionist goes above 50 per cent and its lead over the nationalist vote goes into double figures.

    A decade ago when John Hume was effectively the leader of nationalism in N. Ireland, the gap between the total unionist and total nationalist vote fell at every election, hitting low single figures at the turn of the century. Given demographic trends, it was confidently predicted that the nationalist vote would overtake the unionist vote within a decade. It clearly hasn’t. Since Gerry Adams became effectively the leader of nationalism in N. Ireland, the trend has been in the opposite direction and the gap has gone back into double figures. And its no freak. It has nothing to do with pacts. The same trend was apparent in the Euro elections last year, at which a PR voting system was in operation.

  • Jag

    Brian

    ” Cat Seeley of Sinn Fein also outvoted her predecessor John O’Dowd.”

    In terms of number of votes yes; but share of vote was down.

    An extra 40000 people voted in NI compared with 2010 with Alliance getting 18k DUP getting 16k UUP 13k SF 4k SDLP (minus!) 11k UKIP (plus!) 18k TUV (minus!) 10k

  • Cue Bono

    That’s a bit of a turnaround from you. Not so long ago you were going into hysterics about the sectarianism of pacts. I suppose that breathtaking hypocrisy from republicans is not to be unexpected.

  • Jag

    2015 proves that TUV remains a one-trick pony with just 16k votes down 10k from 2010 in a turned out electorate that’s 40k higher.

  • McDonnell’s winning shareof 24.5 is not only the lowest winning share in this election, it is the lowest in any UK general election EVER, easily beating the previous record of 26% in Inverness in 1992. Belfast has form in this area, as North Belfast in 1979 is 4th on that list, Belfast south 2005 in 15th place and Belfast East 1979 in 21st place.
    The implications for the Assembly elections are interesting. Alliance and UUP must fancy their chances of extra seats. It wouldn’t be a surpise to see an Alliance gain in North Belfast now. UKIP had some reasonable finishes which they could build on, especially Reilly, Gerry Carroll looks a shoe-in, just a question of whether he gains from SF or the SDLP, who look very shaky

  • Jag

    Hah! Cannabis is Safer than Alcohol gets more votes than SF in north Down.

  • smcgiff

    SF must be praying for an overall Tory majority now and not just the 324 seats that would see SF’s abstentionism granting Tory power in Westminster 🙂

  • Cue Bono

    It’s looking like a small majority for the conservatives. John Bercow must be crapping himself.

  • sk

    My opinion on tribal pacts remains the same. My approach to them has changed on the basis of the results of this election.

    I’m openly advocating that nationalists follow unionists into the gutter and eject as many of them from their seats as possible.

  • Jag

    BBC now predicting 331 for Tories which gives them a 16 MP majority (319 for the others but the four SFers abstain).

    Unless the Tories have serious health issues (and with all that private health insurance they probably don’t) seems likely the Tories will go it alone.

    Wonder who’ll be the next secretary of state? Theresa Villiers has been re-elected in the safe seat of Chipping Barnet but she’s unlikely to keep the portfolio.

  • Sharpie

    Nationalist parties now need to seriously respond to a growing disaffection among their previous ranks against sectarian politics. There are many in the electorate who `are crying out for something else and they cannot find it anywhere on the current ballot papers.

    SF and especially SDLP have permission if not a duty to create a new and fairly different narrative that has something to say about progress and not about negative campaigning and shrinking mindsets.

    Take time to go talk to real people – not in secret huddles and convocations – real people give you votes, not party aficionados.

  • Jag

    John that seems unfair. SF has dominated nationalist politics since 2000. In 2005 it attracted 174k votes (the same as today incidentally) compared with 125k votes for the SDLP.

    GA has seen his party become the biggest in NI last year and has been the biggest in some recent opinion polls in the south (and is placed second behind FG in the others). They have four out of 14 Euro MEPs tops with FG they could well have won another seat and possibly two last year.

    This was just a bad election for SF. Its manifesto was a disgrace and its politicians appeared incompetent when debating issues outside their comfort zone (economy health education policing). I think SF also failed to energise their supporters. They didn’t deploy the joinedyuppness that GA was promoting last year apart from a couple of Donegal TDs I didn’t see much evidence of Southern personnel deployed in NI where were all the councillors where was Peadar Toibin and MLM?

    SF needs some serious reflection and more importantly credible policies – beyond the hackneyed “austerity isn’t working” – which it can convincingly articulate.

  • Zeno

    I’d say we can look forward to 20 years of Tory rule. Once Boris replaces Cameron its game over for Labour.

  • Zeno

    Demographics, eh. Maybe it will finally sink in that a growing Catholic population does not mean a growing Nationalist/Republican vote.

  • Chingford Man

    I suspect South Antrim has a lot to do with people never really taking to Willie McCrea. Sammy Wilson, Jim Shannon and Jeffrey Donaldson have made their formerly UUP constituencies into safe DUP bankers, whereas DUP support in South Antrim since 2010 has fluctuated as to whether McCrea’s name was on the ballot. Paul Girvan might have done better last night.

    Of course the fiercely moderate Kinahan is now off to Westminster where he can be as liberal as he likes, whereas the new UUP MLA might be someone very different like Adrian Watson.

  • Gillian Mc Naull

    I think it is a bit patronising to call Gerry Carroll success a protest vote. PBP is a grassroots movement, which has evolved according to the needs of the community, and has gained success due to its unflagging community activism. People are ready for a change, a party of the west which serves both sides of the community and prioritises those whose voice is currently ignored by our partisan politics. Perhaps people of the west are starting to question the point of putting Sin Fein in power when they refuse to represent the community needs in Westminster when decisions are being made? It is an affront to me that NI representation in Westminster is practically homogenous in the form of the DUP/NI Taliban. Time for a change #peoplebeforeprofit

  • mjh

    The implications for the Assembly Election are interesting. Some people vote differently at Westminster compared to the Assembly, and there is also differential turnout. I have looked at how the votes changed between the last Westminster election and the following Assembly and applied them to yesterday’s vote. There then needed to be a judgement adjustment to take account of the different parties (and independents) standing in each election. This suggests the following:

    Belfast East: DUP 3. Alliance 3. The UUP losing their seat to Alliance. Alternatively the UUP might retain their seat at the expense of the DUP.

    Belfast North: DUP 3, SF 2, SDLP 1. No change. The SDLP seat is precarious, and there is an outside possibility that it could fall to Alliance. Also a UUP gain from DUP cannot be ruled out.

    Belfast South: Alliance 2, DUP 1, UUP 1, SDLP 1, SF 1. Alliance gain from SDLP. A DUP gain from UUP cannot be ruled out.

    Belfast West: SF 3, SDLP 1, PBPA 1, DUP 1. DUP and PBPA both gain one from SF. SDLP could lose their seat reducing SF losses to one – although this appears unlikely.

    East Antrim: DUP 2, Alliance 2, UUP 1, UKIP 1. UKIP and Alliance each gain one from DUP and SF.

    East Londonderry: DUP 3, UUP 1, SF,1 SDLP 1. UUP gain from Independent. There is a possibility that the Ind could retain the seat, and UUP gain one from DUP instead. Alternatively Alliance might just take the Ind seat.

    Fermanagh & South Tyrone: SF 3, UUP 2, DUP 1. UUP gain one from DUP. Alternatively no change.

    Foyle: SDLP 3, SF 2, DUP . No change. If the PBPA improvement in West Belfast were even partly reflected here it is possible that it could take a seat, probably from SDLP.

    Lagan Valley: DUP 4, UUP 1, Alliance 1. No change versus 2011. The fourth DUP seat is precarious and could fall to UKIP, or less likely NI21.

    Mid Ulster: No change. SF 3, SDLP1, DUP 1, UUP 1.

    Newry & Armagh: No change. SF 3, SDLP 1, DUP 1, UUP 1.

    North Antrim: No change. DUP 3, UUP 1, TUV 1, SF 1. TUV now safe.

    North Down: DUP 3, UUP 1, Alliance 2. Alliance gain 1 from Green. It is almost as likely that the Greens would retain their seat at the expense of the DUP.

    South Antrim: DUP 2, UUP 2, Alliance 1, SF 1. UUP gain one from DUP. Alternatively no change.

    South Down: No change. SDLP 2, SF 2, DUP 1, UUP 1.

    Strangford: DUP 3, UUP 1, UKIP 1, Alliance 1. McNarry keeps his seat – representing a UKIP gain from UUP since 2011. A long shot alternative would be the SDLP gaining the seat instead of UKIP.

    Upper Bann: DUP 2, UUP 2, SF 2. SF gain one from SDLP.

    West Tyrone: No change. SF 3, SDLP 1, DUP 1, UUP 1.

    This gives the most likely net change: DUP -2, UUP +1, TUV n/c, UKIP +2, Ind -1,
    SDLP -2, SF -2, Alliance +4, Green -1, PBPA +1.

  • Brian O’Neill

    You make a fair point but the DUP/NI Taliban bit does you no favours.

  • Brian O’Neill

    Just to give him his dues all the commentary with done by Kris Nixon. We thank him for getting up so early to write it 😉

  • Cue Bono

    You have shifted from your previous lofty position for purely sectarian reasons. Fair play to you for openly admitting it.

  • Cue Bono

    Especially if they follow Ed’s advice and keep tacking left. Will their union paymasters permit anything else?

  • sk

    I’m intrigued. Is it the case, then, that nationalist pacts are sectarian and unionist pacts are not?

  • Jag

    David McNarry who I don’t think was being hubristic says the results indicate 6-7 UKIP seats next year.

  • Croiteir

    The nationalist parties are losing out due to there increased leftist liberal vote. They are being punished. I know natural nationalists are voting for the DUP.

  • mjh

    I’ve no idea how he could get that figure. Apart from the two I mention their next best chance (apart from the Lagan Valley long shot) would be South Down where they got 7.1% of the vote. But while this would be half a quota the combined unionist parties accumulated under two quotas’ worth between them. Since the UUP on 9.3% and the DUP on 8.2% both sit above UKIP it is inevitable that UKIP would be eliminated before them.

    Nowhere else do they get to 0.4 of a quota.

    He must be assuming rocket-propelled growth in the UKIP vote over the next 12 months.

  • JohnTheOptimist

    I don’t think I’m being unfair. As a socially conservative nationalist, who wants to see a UI achieved democratically and by peaceful means, I want to see the total nationalist vote in N. Ireland as high as possible. Since SF became the dominant component of N. Ireland nationalism, the total nationalist vote has declined despite favourable demographic trends, This decline has accelerated sharply in both last year’s Euro election and yesterday’s Westminster election. Most nationalists in N. Ireland are middle-class (as elsewhere) and not at all interested in marxist economics or street agitation. A fair chunk of them are socially conservative and don’t give a fig for all this ‘progressive’ politics. Many of them would support The Ashers’ Bakery. I posted on Slugger last week that these people were being treated with contempt by the nationalist parties and that I would be voting DUP in protest. It looks like I wasn’t the only nationalist to do that.

  • Starviking

    I can’t see how that would work – SF do not represent their constituents at Westminister, and the SDLP believe strongly in representing their constituents.

  • JohnTheOptimist

    One hundred per cent correct. I am one of them. We were told by the left-liberal media for the past fortnight that the DUP would take a hammering because of their ‘backward’ social policies, especially in relation to abortion and gay marriage. Instead, I see this morning that the DUP have become the largest party in N. Ireland.

  • Cue Bono

    It is the case that you objected hysterically to unionist pacts because you deemed them to be sectarian. It is now the case that you support nationalist pacts. There can only be two possible causes for this volte face.

    1. You are an exceptionally sectarian person.

    2. You are not very bright.

    Which is it?

  • 9,055 votes (1.3%) for the Tories in the north, yet they’ll set our finances in the following term. Austerity and a democratic deficit are, again, the price of the union.

  • Johnny Irish

    The English have foisted the Tories on the celtic nations. They had minimal votes in Scotland, Wales and here.
    Yet we must suffer their corporate, capitalist values.
    The people of n ireland will pay a heavy, dark price for English stupidity.
    Time for a split up of the union and devolution for the celtic nations!

  • Zeno

    People will pay any price rather than have the alternative. Imagine an Ireland with Sinn Fein in charge.

  • stewrogers

    I think you’ll see a Blairite shift to the centre again as the SNP are now eating Labour’s lunch.

  • Cue Bono

    Only 9,055 votes yet they will give us in excess of 10 billion quid.

  • Cue Bono

    That would be the sensible thing to do (David Miliband might have won that election), but will Len McCluskey and co let them?

  • Jag

    give us *back* our own money and keep us in a state of perpetual dependency

  • Jag

    SF has gone from 21.7% (equal to 176k votes out of an electorate of 1191k with a 68% turnout) in 2001

    to 24.3% (equal to 175k votes out of an electorate of 1140k in 2005 with a 63% turnout) in 2005

    to 25.5% (equal to 171k votes out of an electorate of 1169k with a 58% turnout) in 2010

    to 24.5% (equal to 176k votes out of an electorate of 1237k with a 58.1% turnout) in 2015

    GA has dominated the party throughout.

    It’s the SDLP which has steadily declined from 21% in 2001 representing 170000 voters to 14% today with under 100000 voters

    And during this period especially post 2009 SF has built a significant party in the south.

    Surely the 2010-2015 decline in nationalism is the fault of the leadership of the SDLP. That’s not to say today is not a bad day for SF it is and they’ll miss the €200k that an MP role is worth but it’s not a collapse and if they take stock of their policies and presentation and try harder to do a pact deal with the SDLP they will recuperate.

  • Cue Bono

    Ah yes the Sinner Hazard was explaining how that would work on Nolan. Unfortunately his figures were out by about 4 billion quid.

  • james

    The two things are not mutually exclusive, are they?

  • sk

    I think nationalism is at a bit of a crossroads.

    Either follow unionism into the sectarian gutter where they currently find themselves, and have historically found themselves most at home, or get back to the drawing board.

    The Shinners have no hope of obtaining the success of the SNP across the water, because they took it upon themselves to blow up shopping centres for three decades. It appears that they have reached their electoral nadir.

    So what next, then? Voting pacts are self-evidently sectarian. Like any black hole, they have a gravity of their own that has the capacity to draw people in. It’s tempting to follow up unionist tribalism with a bit of tit-for-tat, but on mature reflection, who does it benefit? It benefitted the knuckle-draggers this time around, but why go down that road?

    Disenchantment with the sewer that is Northern Irish politics should not lead one to stoop to the level of lowest common denominator politics. Best leave that to the orangemen and the blanketmen, I think. Find a better way.

  • sk

    A mature and intelligent response, typical of your good self, james. You don’t happen to write Gavin Robinson’s victory speeches too by any chance?

  • Jack Bauer

    I rethink around what politics actually means and to who is now needed. Across the divide politics can be viewed as mere familial political dynasties-where chioce is a dirty word? Look no further than SF & SDLP, who have copied and embedded the curse of Irish Nationalism-‘yes-men.’ When I went to vote yesterday, my initial thought was why-nothing will change. Sadly, I was right. The same old faces, the same old mantra- right across the board. Politicians feeding of each other, offering nothing new.

    Time for change. First abstentionism needs to go. What does it achieve? MP`s who are unconnected with the political realities of a central government! What has West Belfast gained from SF? Surely a party must be judged on the benefits it`s able to bring to its constitutuency. I`ve noticed no change. Levels of poverty/deprivation that have generally increased. Unemployment, one of the largest across the U.K. In fact, a paper policy of abstentionism, that will never feed the hungry on either the Shankill of Falls.

    Yeah we hear this at every election but with the re-election of the Tories, the next 5yrs could be brutal for everyone in N.Ireland. Hard choices lie ahead. When further economic cuts are inflicted and they will be inflicted-there is no point in complaining if you voted SF. You choose an abstentionism party!

    Can SF change? I doubt it. The stalinist grip of their leadership over the party machine puts the stickies to shame. Where is the new blood-those from outside the ranks of the chosen few!

    The SDLP are no better. The image of a middle-class party of old fuddy-duddies-people who will never know want-is from my humble perspective, not far off the mark. Irish Nationalism talks of liberty and democracy when really it`s a prisoner of inward looking uber-Catholism.

    What for the future? I foresee nothing of benefit for West Belfast (maybe this is SF`s hidden agenda-keep the natives poor and blame the British!). You get what you vote for-democracy in a nutshell.

    Just remember when you`re struggling to paid that overdue bill-how many of the political elite within the West, suffer the same fate. Not many, if any. Lemmings are lucky-they don`t realise they are jumping off a cliff!

  • Dan

    The ‘left liberal’ media clique here needs cleaned out.
    Same old faces, same old views on the radio, TV and newspapers
    The gurning from Heenan today was something to behold.
    Tired, stale. They all are continually described as experts, and they all called it completely wrong..

  • sk

    I’ll share with you my thought process. After railing against pacts for months, you’re met with the sight of the most tribal elements in NI making decent electoral gains on the back of their sectarianism. This is
    disconcerting. If this is what you’re up against, if the net result of taking a
    principled stand is a victory for the dinosaurs, then where should you go from there?

    Do tribal pacts become pragmatic pacts in a context where
    unionism revels in a good, old-fashioned, sectarian slug-fest? Tom Elliott, in his acceptance speech, openly thanked the Loyal Orders for getting together with the DUP, UUP, TUV in ensuring the result in F/ST. This is how politics is in Northern Ireland. This is what you’re up against. How do you combat that? Disenchantment kicks in, and you conclude that nationalists need a pact of theirown to cancel out the Tom Elliott’s of this world.

    But, then, what does that achieve? What is the benefit in becoming like them, for nothing more than the prospect of transient electoral
    success? You lose more than you gain in the long run, both morally and
    strategically. That’s been my thought process today. So to answer your question am I a bit stupid, or a bit sectarian? Probably a bit of both, if I’m honest!

    But I don’t approach this stuff with the same dogmatic certainty that others do. I readily accept that I wrestle with my own atavistic
    instincts at times, and today was a good example of that. But I do think
    tribalism is wrong. I think it’s strategically wrong, and I think it’s morally
    wrong. I was wrong to stoop to that level. I wouldn’t be inclined to do it
    again.

  • tmitch57

    Maybe cannabis is also safer than plastique and ammonium fertilizer.

  • Croiteir

    I am in – when do we get this party of the ground?

  • P Bradley

    “Nationalism talks of Liberty and democracy when really it is a prisoner of inward-looking über-Catholicism”. I voted SDLP so that must be me. I don’t recognise myself. I go to mass about 2 times a year and the Catholic Church don’t guide my views. Nice intellectual-sounding commentary but what do you mean?

  • Cue Bono

    Tom Elliot thanked members of a perfectly legitimate fraternal organistaion for their help. Gildernew claimed that the seat belonged to a dead IRA terrorist. You focus on the unionist. There can be no escaping the conclusion that you are a very sectarian person who notices only the speck of sawdust in the eye of the Prod, but ignores the beam in the eye of the Provo.

  • Cue Bono

    The reality is that unionists have been on the backfoot for almost twenty years and that the peak of republicanism has now come and gone. What we see in Northern Ireland today is how the country will look throughout our life ties. People should accept that and knuckle down to making it a better place to live. Republicans do not have an inherent right to deliver kickings to unionists. They need to accept that these things cut both ways.

    The Sinners have conned their electorate into thinking they were on a one way street to a united Ireland the ‘any day now’ strategy. It was a lie and that is obviously sinking in amongst the CNR electorate.

  • james

    No, but perhaps I should.

  • Robin Keogh

    I think it is important to remember that politics can be cyclical and suprising at times. The electorate giveth and taketh away. I think it might be wrong to assume that what we have now is how it is always going to be. We have all made that mistake down through the years when in reality the political landscape now is totally different to what it was thirty years ago. There is nothing surer in life than unexpected change and while it sure is a good night for Unionism a flip of only 2% can change that picture entirely.

  • Am Ghobsmacht

    You disregarded option #3:

    The stable door has been open and the tribal horse is galloping over the hill, so either;

    a/ do what unionists do and maximise the tribal vote or
    b/ stick to the moral high-ground and lose out in terms of votes.

    SK from my recollection has never said anything sectarian and he/she is certainly bright.

    You’re seemingly deliberately misconstruing SK’s points.
    If you fight someone thinking “well, I’m not going to hit below the belt, bite or gouge their eyes” knowing that they might you’ll soon change your mind once you lose.

    Come the time of fight #2 you’ll go in with fingers jabbing at the eyes, feet flailing at the knees and palms aiming for the throat;
    your opponent lowered the bar and set the standard and if disregarding Queensbury rules means you are likely to win then you are more than likely to do so if the bitter taste of taking a beating weighs on your mind.

    This is what political nationalism will probably do next time around (and if they don’t then all credit to the SDLP).
    I think what SK has said will prove prophetic and for sure rather than think “bugger, we started this” unionists will instead gurn about it and label all nationalists as part of the ‘pan nationalist front’.

    Tom Elliot’s win is a short term victory with very bad long term consequences for unionism.

    Cnute knew he couldn’t hold back the sea, political unionism thinks it can.

  • BetsyGray

    Ok..Dupaban…..?….Puratan….?….16thcenturyaban…..?..endless…!
    ..its easier to be more comical about it.

  • Carl Mark

    really how do you figure that out!

  • Carl Mark

    right so if you believe in sectarian pacts for unionists then which are you,

    1. You are an exceptionally sectarian person.

    2. You are not very bright.

    Which is it?

  • Pasty2012

    Tom Elliott is the same person who on TV claimed that the UVF in 1912 were “set up by the Government of the day”. This was to justify the Orange Orders celebrating the Terrorists 100th Anniversary. They were set up to defy to the Will of Parliament and to oppose the Bill Passed on Irish Home Rule at Westminster. The same people who set up the Terrorist Group had no real problem accepting Home Rule as long is it was Protestant Orange Home Rule as per their establishment of the Orange Stormont Government.
    However The Provisional Government of Ireland did set up the Irish Republican Army after the Rebellion of 1916. It will be interesting to see and hear his objections to the events next year.

  • David Elliott

    Nice analysis mjh – must have taken a lot of work. Do you have a spreadsheet or something that enables you to look at how sensitive the results would be to small fluctuations? It would be interesting to see your results predicting the total MLAs in the Assembly – and also some indication as to potential Ministerial changes. Thanks for all the hard work on this.

  • Kevin Breslin

    Lowest vote share? And Yet …

  • mjh

    Thanks, David. Yes its done with spreadsheets. Although there has to be a human element of judgement (where for example a party stood in the Assembly last time but not in the Westminster) – which is why I indicate alternative lesser possibilities in some constituencies.

    The total projected for each party are given, together with the Best case and Worst cases which could arise from the alternative possibilities I have given. I should add that for some of the larger parties to get all of their Best or Worst outcomes would be very unlikely.

    DUP 36 (Best 40, Worst 31)
    SF 27 (Best 28, Worst 27)
    UUP 17 (Best 19. Worst 14)
    SDLP 12 (Best 13, Worst 9)
    Alliance 12 (Best 14, Worst 11)
    UKIP 2 (Best 3, Worst 1)
    PBPA 1 (Best 2, Worst 1)
    TUV 1 (Best 1, Worst 1)
    Green 0 (Best 1, Worst 0)
    NI21 0 (Best 1, Worst 1)
    Ind 0 (Best 1, Worst 1)

    On the most likely projection I don’t see it making any practical difference to the number of Executive seats held by each party. Unless one or more were to go into Opposition. On both the current number of MLA’s per party and the most likely projection from the Westminster results the Executive would be:
    DUP: FM + 3 other Departments
    SF: dFM + 2 other Departments
    Alliance, UUP and SDLP – one each including Justice.

    This assumes the reduction in Departments provided for in the Stormont agreement.

  • mjh

    Yes John that is what comes out. As to why, well a lot of it is that Alliance votes are more geographically concentrated than those of the SDLP. But if you have any particular constituency where you would like to discuss the projection to test it please let me know.

  • mjh

    You make an old anorak very happy.

  • michael robinson

    They are cutting the Assembly seats to 90, not raising them.

  • michael robinson

    PMSL, Alliance will not win three seats in East Belfast.,nor will they win two in South or even one in North Belfast.

  • I know that, but it hasn’t happened yet and won’t happen for the next assembly election, which will likely go ahead as before with 108 seats.