Could the SNP and Tories trigger a UK shift to the nationalist right?

This is interesting. I’ve made the point on the SluggerReport that even reliable national polling will be mediated by ground war efforts by various parties. However FPTP may allow the SNP to take almost all the spoils in Scotland:

The latest and final Ipsos MORI poll for STV News puts support for Nicola Sturgeon’s party at 54%, up by two percentage points on the last poll, with Labour trailing on 20%, down from 24%.

Support for the Conservatives has increased by five points to 17% while the Liberal Democrats are on 5%, up one point, the Greens are on 2%, down by two points, Ukip are polling at 1%, with support for other parties also at 1%.

Using these figures, the Electoral Calculus website predicts that the SNP would take all 59 seats in Scotland.

Ipsos MORI questioned 1,071 people between April 22 and 27 on how they would vote if the election was tomorrow.

It is the latest poll to show a record level of support for nationalists after a survey by TNS published on Monday put the SNP on 54%.

It recorded support for Labour at 22%, the Tories at 13%, Lib Dems at 6% and the Greens and Ukip both on 2%.

The mere reporting of these polls may of course help shape the outcome. The MORI MD had this to say:

The swing of course is exaggerated if you measure back to the 2010 Westminster election, but it’s a less dramatic upswing if you look at 2011 Scottish Parliamentary Election, with the SNP on 45.4% and Labour on 31.7%.

It’s something to conjure with, if nothing more. With such a mass desertion of the Scottish left to nationalism, the old SNP nostrum that UK Labour has never needed Scottish seats to make up a government could be tested to breaking point.

If the Tory ‘fear the SNP’ line does its work in England we could be looking at an SNP leader in a numerically powerful place in Westminster, but with no one but the Tories to do business with. In other words, no business to

Having a Tory baddie to poke into ever more blind anti Scotland words and actions is always useful. It might also – in the shorter term – save them the slow [if apocalypic] poisoning that Neal Ascherton recently warned them of

But it could also afford Labour an opportunity of pinning the dampening weather on their own defenestration of political power, and a sudden and general lurch to the political right…

Interesting times ahead…

  • MainlandUlsterman

    I suspect polling day, while dramatic for the SNP, won’t see quite the clean sweep suggested. But Tories doing their best to produce it!

  • 23×7

    The Scottish left have not deserted to Nationalism. Actually it’s Labour who have, over the past decade or more, deserted the left. There will be plenty of pro-union voters voting for the SNP in this election.

  • Barneyt

    What is your premise Mick? Tories and Liberals establish a working coalition…or the expected happens i.e. Labour and SNP, perhaps with a little support from others form a government?

  • scepticacademic

    I don’t quite follow the premise here. Are you arguing that the SNP are right wing? How so? NS has campaigned on anti-austerity and argued for an alliance with Labour to keep the Tories out.
    As for the results in England, the polls are still too close to call between Lab and Con, and when you factor in the geography of the vote, it’s by no means certain that Tories will be the largest party in England or overall.

  • smcgiff

    The loss of seats by Labour to SNP does not affect the Labour/SNP “coalition” dynamic. Fascinating times in Scotland. How many seats do people think SNP will get?
    Lower than 40, 40-50 or 50+. Anything above 40 would be massive considering they are starting with only SIX!

  • Robin Keogh

    I am assuming you mean UKIP and BNP et al. when you say the nationalist right. If thats the case then i reckon its a big no. Yes there has been a re emergence of English nationalism but despite the support for UKIP and the BNP there is no sign of a groundswell of support which would indicate the rise of a narrow English nationalism the like which UKIP nad BNP represent. The English are far too emotionally and intellectually switched on similar to their Scottish and Welsh neighbours to allow that to happen. After years of football louts and aggressive holiday makers damaging brand England abroad, my own feeling is that the English have become far more self aware of their politcal and social culture, they have taken their flag back from the trouble makers and put themselves back on the international stage as people who are tolerant, inclusive and internationally responsible. Central to all of this is a revival of an English Identity seperate and distinct to that of the UK, which includes a realisation of their own right to self determination.

  • james

    I tend to agree with much of that and would like to see the Irish follow their lead in choking out the weeds of extreme nationalism. To date, sadly, the Irish answer to the BNP (Sinn Fein, for clarity) continue to swell.

  • Robin Keogh

    Nonsense James. SF are a full galaxy away from the likes of the BNP. Dont equate SF’S struggle for equal status for the irish language and identity as some sort of narrow right wing nationalism. It clearly is not as u well know. The BNP with their homphobic and racist tendencies are similar to some parties in Ireland for sure, but SF aint one of them.

  • Mike the First

    Well SF do celebrate those who murdered people because of their religion, their nationality and their political opinion…

  • Robin Keogh

    Sinn Fein do not celebrate anybody who has “murdered” anybody because of their religion, nationality or politcal opinion. I am sorry you feel the way you do about us, and I accept your right to that view, but thats what it is, yoiur view. and its not even remotely close to reality.

  • mickfealty

    No Robin. If I meant extreme right I would have said extreme right.

  • mickfealty

    Yep, they will certainly have to if Jim and Dougie are to lose their seats. On UK politics the SNP has largely shadowed the Labour agenda (Trident excepted). Classic triangulation.

    But the nature of the argument which is coming up if the Tories get in will provide little opportunity for pursuing a leftist agenda until after independence is achieved, or some degree of fiscal autonomy.

    Mori polling coming up tomorrow reportedly shows the Tories starting to pull significantly ahead in England. After the dullest campaign in history we could be in for a real roller coaster finish here.

    (And I really have no idea what Murdoch is up to: just backing winners? http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/04/sun-says-stop-snp-scottish-sun-says-back-snp).

  • Robin Keogh

    Ok then I am lost, who do u mean precisely by the nationalist right? The tories?

  • Zeno

    Of course, all Sinn Fein did was support the IRA and make excuses for them, and the IRA were a noble band of brothers who didn’t murder innocent men ,women and children or use Human Bombs, kidnap and murder Jean Mc Conville and disappear people..
    But were SF and the IRA not the same people?
    Shuuuush we never mention that.

  • james

    Well, hang on old chap. Tempting though it might be to run from the issue let’s ‘have the discussion’ (I believe that is the approved phrase). My position is clear: I see no difference in the boorish self-righteousness of “there ain’t no black in the union jack”/”the green white and gold” supplanting the original orange. I see no difference in the aggressive yobbishness of the BNP towards people of colour coming to live in England and the arrogant refusal of Irish nationalism to accept the rights of migrants to this country. And I see no difference to both groups appealing to the frustrations of the working class by demonizing some ‘other’ as a scapegoat. I see no difference to the depiction of black people as apes in far right ‘literature’ and the ‘knuckle dragger’ caricature of Protestants that appear mostly in words but sometimes in cartoons in the likes of the Irish News. What do you take to be the key differences, beyond the primary colours and better PR?

  • james

    Sinn Fein do celebrate people who committed murder, whatever difference of opinion we might have about precisely why the murders were committed.

  • Robin Keogh

    we do not celebrate murder, we commemorate and remember irish nationalists and republicans who lost their lives in war and conflict over the centuries, in exactly the same way as others commemorate their lost ones.

  • Zeno

    Well you can’t say the IRA who are now mostly Sinn Fein were sectarian. I mean there was only 5 Bombs directed at civilian targets on the Shankill Road. …………………. Ohhhh it does sound a wee bit sectarian when you write it down, but sure these things happen in war/conflict etc…….. forget about it and move on.

  • Robin Keogh

    As far as SF are concerned the orange represents the protestant planter and his traditions, with the white a symbol of hope for peace between us. Irish nationalism welcomes immigrants to this island, we have a black councillor from ghana elected in Dublin for gods sake. accomodating and protecting the rights of minorities is a central plank of SF policy. SF have no control over the Irish news and we make no apology for challenging tge rampant racism and homophobia engrained in unionism. Your view of what SF is and what it stands for is coloured by propaganda James, no fact just fiction.

  • Gerry Lynch

    1. Back the winners.
    2. Say the winners only one because you backed them.
    3. Demand political concessions from the winners and tell them you won’t back them any more if you don’t get them.

    Simples!

  • james

    My view of what it is and what it stands for is based entirely on what it does and what it says, mo chara.

  • Robin Keogh

    And u are clearly very selective when it comes to assesing the reality. Just because you want us to be bad people to suit ur subjective caricature, does not mean we are.

  • Robin Keogh

    They will win 49 seats

  • james

    If I am only selecting the bad, as you believe ( and of course you are entitled to) it suggests two things: first, that those bad things are there to select, and second, that there are good things there, too. What, in your view do SF offer to the unionist community, or indeed anyone who disagrees with them?

  • Robin Keogh

    You are selective in that u choose to assign blame on SF for IRA events of the past, skipping over the GFA and forgetting that we are where we are due to agreement between all the main parties on this Island and the london government. People who disagree with SF have to decide for themselves what we can or cannot offer them, politically, socially and economically. SF can offer a commitment to equality, fair economic oversight and regulation, protection for those on lower incomes and those who are ill or otherwise vulnerable, accomodating the needs of minorities including gays, ethnic minorities and those trapped by immigration beuracracy, the list goes on. Do u think any of that might appeal to your average unionist?

  • Zeno

    ” fair economic oversight and regulation, protection for those on lower incomes ”

    SF have signed up to cut the tax bills of wealthy businessmen (Corporation Tax) and are borrowing £700 million to cut 20,000 public service jobs. The cost for both of those will come directly from cuts in public services. If the Tories were in power here and cut 20,000 jobs and reduced tax for the wealthy……….. imagine the outcry, led by Sinn Fein, but no, now they are in power it’s all fine and dandy…. You should try thinking about what you are voting for Robin.

  • Slater

    Strange leap in support for the Conservatives in Scotland. Is that the start of tactical voting by anti-separatists picking the more dynamic party rather than Labour which is on the skids apparently?
    If so, they could win three or four Borders seats to balance the SNP’s near clean sweep.

    Perhaps devolution has passed its zenith and the roll back has started.

  • Robin Keogh

    Ok Zeno I will give it one more try with you here and see if you can discuss respectfully and rationally. I don’t care if we disagree, but I would rather learn something from you rather than have to put up with childish one liners and side swipes.

    In my view you are quite correct in that SF have signed up to a deal that runs contrary to their stated aims. They did their absolute best in long drawn out protracted negotiations and in my view also, they got the best deal possible.
    It has to be fair to look at this in the context of the institutions and the power sharing arrangements. Firstly, NI is not a sovereign state and the assembly is not a sovereign government similar to that say in Dublin. The power they wield is weak and they are subject to a hand out from London to bridge the fiscal deficit. Their revenue raising powers are severely limited especially in the area of taxation. If SF was in government with all the powers that normal governments wield, another way would have been found, be it through higher taxation on the wealthy, a Capital tax or an increase in capital gains tax such as they have argued for in the south.
    Secondly, the Tories are the defacto power dynamic in the North due to the reasons I have outlined above and because they have the influence to enforce cuts that are unpalatable across the union, with little or nothing the smaller parties can do about it in the constituent regions.
    Thirdly, both the SDLP and SF held out for as long as they could to get the best deal they could during long drawn out and protracted negotiations. With pressure form the other three parties and both govs claiming the shinners refusal to sign up was reckless and irresponsible, not to mention the fines, penalties and threat to shut down the executive, they were left with no choice but to do a deal.
    For SF or any other party to have a reasonable chance to Implement their policies they have to have the power in government to do so. One of the reasons they want to remove the border is built around this basic principle. Where they have influence they have shown to be good to their word. A good example would be in the South where they have cut property tax to the legal maximum amount in the face of opposition from the other major parties, in the local councils where they have a majority. They are at the forefront in objections to the water charges and the property charges where they will abolish them if in power. And all their policies are fully costed based on growth figures and figures provided by the department of finance.
    There are very few wealthy businessman in NI compared with GB and the South. The reduction in corpo rates in designed to make the north more competitive to encourage new business start ups and attract greater FDI. Its crazy to have two rates on such a small Island which puts the six counties at such an unfair disadvantage.
    I would say to you and everybody else on this Island, if you want to see an end to austerity, an opening up of opportunities for our younger graduates, a fairer distributional policy on revenue and a programme of equality that protects the most vulnerable in society; vote for SF so we can enter government and work to remove the border.

  • mickfealty

    Yes, but the price appears to be going down: http://goo.gl/O5CojK. Single point of negotiation on this one is likely to be the Tory, I would suggest.

    Expect any incoming Tory government to be presented in Scotland, as ‘look what the SNP got you for Christmas boys and girls…’

    🙂

  • mickfealty

    Okay..

    Unlike Ireland’s parties, the SNP is a single confluence of two historic parties. It is in fact inert on the matters of social justice not least because both former parties united to pursue national freedom.

    So SNP triangulate to a Labour, leftist agenda [which can only payout on a Labour led government] in order to destroy UK Labour in Scotland [and the job is almost jobbed on that account.]

    Where next? Most likely the Tories play up the national card and squeeze the social justice agenda out of the way, what do we have? Power which now swings on nationalist right axis.

    And the left is nowhere for [at least] five whole years.

  • mickfealty

    Can someone explain how this relates to Scotland? Or are we just avoiding another ‘awkward conversation’?

  • mickfealty

    No, but the anti SNP campaign in England will affect the result there. It’s quite a dynamic system in that regard.

  • mickfealty

    Sa, sorry been past my eyes with other stuff. No, it’s nationalist. That’s it. It’s not inherently left or right in that regard. IN order to take the support away from Labour it has had to triangulate into Labour’s territory of social justice, and it’s pro austerity approach. That may grow into something more genuine over time, particularly if Labour fail to make a comeback, but it is not inherently central to the mission, which is its nationalist ambition for Scotland.

  • Robin Keogh

    I was just answering a question from Zeno. He has been chasing me around every thread asking this question so i thought i would do him the courtesy of replying. In any event, SF attempts to steer a better deal is an important component part in understanding how a similar left wing party like tge SNP might face similar challenges should it slide up beside either of tge main GB parties.

  • mickfealty

    Well, without blaming you entirely, don’t answer it if you cannot bind in something of the subject material my advice is don’t answer.

  • scepticacademic

    cheers Mick, I take your point now, although social justice is arguably a core Scottish value, not just the preserve of Labour (past or present), so I don’t see why it can’t be a central mission of the SNP too,esp. when hear the way senior SNPers talk about the Nordic model.
    PS: regarding my other point about the Lab-Con contest in England, it was interesting to see yesterday’s Ashcroft polls showing Labour ahead of the Tories in 40 out of 50 marginals. I’m wondering if Labour could end up with more seats than the Tories on a smaller national share of the vote, despite their likely rout by SNP in Scotland.

  • Robin Keogh

    Sure ting boss 😉

  • scepticacademic

    “Tories starting to pull significantly ahead in England”
    – in some national polls the gap is 2-5% but not in the key marginals which will decide the balance of power (according to the latest Ashcroft polling).

    “if the Tories get in will provide little opportunity for pursuing a leftist agenda”

    – none of the projections I’ve seen give the Tories anything near an outright win (not even 300 seats) and the Lib Dems are likely to lose at least half of their seats (possibly more), so even if the Tories get the most seats, they may struggle to form a government. Plus the papers are saying the Lib Dem grass roots may block a 2nd ConDem coalition

  • Zeno

    Welfare is not resolved. SF signed up and then pulled out. We are still being fined £2 million a week. One minute they had got us the best possible deal and a few days later……. they did an about turn.
    Did they not understand what they were signing up for?

    There are plenty of wealthy businesses in Northern Ireland, but it is hardly the point. Taking money to fund the already wealthy from the public purse in the hope, with no guarantee that they might provide some jobs.

    I don’t recall any fight about borrowing £700 million to abolish 20,000 jobs. They are not just paying people off. They are cutting 20,000 Jobs in public service. As I said, if the Tories did it Sinn Fein would lead the outcry, but SF not only signed up to it, they signed up to borrow the money to do it.

    Sinn Feins manifesto was ripped to pieces in the Sunday Times, at best there is a £4 billion hole. Chris Hazzard has been similarly destroyed on local radio. Their economic policies don’t stand up.
    Their claim to be ending austerity is blown away by their actions (cutting jobs and funding businesses).

  • mickfealty

    As I said above, I’m only conjuring.

  • Zeno

    Jeez Mick I’ve been trying to get an answer for months.
    Now you killed it,

  • barnshee

    Which taxes should SF
    Increase
    Decrease
    Introduce
    and by what margins?

  • jonlivesey

    Well, one way to put this is that because of FPTP, given current SNP support a vote for Labour in Scotland is effectively a wasted vote. Coming second in every Scottish constituency does Labour zero good.
    But if you think about it the pollsters are telling us about the percentage Labout support nation-wide. In other words, they are counting Labour votes in Scotland that might as well be null and void.
    So I think these “neck and neck” claims are really misleading. In FPTP, you really don’t want to have a strong second place showing in a lot of constituencies, and in Scotland, that is exactly what Labour has.
    They have Ed, too, but that’s another story.

  • jonlivesey

    I like the headline question, but I have another way of thnking about it. It’s not so much a matter of triggering a shift to the nationalist right, as it is a matter of undoing a shift.
    One of the glues that held the Union together was a more or less deliberate avoidance of English nationalism by the English. Sure, many Scots and Irish will object that the English are nationalisti, but the convention was that the English were *British* nationalists.
    Of course, that offends many Scots and Irish, who will probably object that the English treated England as the whole UK, and ignored the Scots and Irish, so the two kinds of nationalsims are really one and the same.
    But that’s a contradiction if you also denounce people like Farage for promoting English nationalism. English nationalism is either a new thing or it’s not. You can’t have it both ways.
    Personally, I think the cat is out of the bag. I saw so many people posting during the Independence Referendum that they felt a sense of liberation at contemplating Scotland leaving the UK that I have to believe that this new form of English nationalism is here to stay. For better or worse. My guess is that it will be better for the English to recover their identity, and a bit worse for the fringe.

  • jonlivesey

    Wow, you lost a lot of credility right there. Sorry, but you did. I lived through those times. Postmen as “military targets”? Come on. Let’s wait a while before we re-write history.

  • Robin Keogh

    Hey barn if u check out SF wesite you will find it all there buddy