The results of our 2015 predictions survey!

More than 270 people filled in the survey over the past day and here are the results:


Bad news for big Al but not entirely unexpected. Who will be the new SDLP leader? The favourite is Colum Eastwood, but can he reverse the party’s decline or are they beyond all hope? As Gerry Adams begins his 32nd year as President of Sinn Fein it is no surprise that many think he will hang on for another year.



As with question 1 many expect Peter Robinson to announce his long rumoured retirement in 2015. Interestingly most people expect Martin to stay on. Is he hoping to be First Minister?



Some good news for Al: most people expect him to keep his Westminster seat.



At our Slugger end of year review show, Brian Feeney described Gavin Robinson as a ‘Tailor’s Dummy’. That may be a bit unfair to Gavin, who had a very successful spell as Lord Mayor of Belfast. But most expect Naomi to keep her seat: it seems many admire her strong stance against her attackers and her hard work for her constituents.



Despite Michelle Gildernew winning her seat by only 4 votes most people think she will be returned as the [absentee] MP.



If we had of asked this question last month we might have expected the results to be reversed. But with the recent talks people are more optimistic that the Assembly will survive another year. Whether they actually do anything is another matter.



It looks like people expect the caravan to be occupied well into 2015. That’s another £14.6 million spent on policing the protest to look forward to. When we can’t afford to replace the street lights it’s comforting that we seem to have unlimited funds for policing our everlasting protests.

 What do you think of our readers 2015 predictions? Let us know in the comments below…

  • Gerry Leddy

    needed for 2015 the political equivalent of Viagra

    no party wants to get all worked up only to go limp when the big moment arrives as with NI21 in 2014

  • Turgon

    Slugger’s predominantly nationalist / republican readership expect (or claim to expect) things to turn out largely as they would hope for. Amazing surprise.

  • Ernekid

    I’m surprised that so many people think that Big Grey Al will keep his seat.

  • Morpheus

    Nads, my money was on Joe dishing out this line first 🙂

  • carl marks

    well thing’s aint going the other way thats for sure! Unionist numbers have passed the high point (percentage wise) and it’s leadership leaves a lot to be disired, niether of these things look like changing!
    as for a pan Unionist front to fight the next elections, well those days are long gone, to many egos needing catered for and to many hatchetts to bury.

  • Framer

    That 34% think SF (MO’M) will win the South Belfast seat says more about Slugger’s readership, their hopes and aspirations than reality.
    Maskey got 12% for SF in the 2011 Assembly election and 9% in 2005 for the Westminster one. For pan-nationalist reasons, SF pulled out in 2010. They are unlikely to this time.

  • Brian O’Neill

    I am impressed that you know the individual political preference of all the tens of thousands of slugger readers.

  • Bryan Magee

    What has changed to his disfavour?

  • Ernekid

    Low turnout O’Muilleoir and Alliance will eat away at his vote leaving a Unionist Unity candidate to take the seat.

    Also he’s a grumpy old git whose done little for his constituency. If I’m living in South Belfast in May, He’s not getting my vote.

  • Brian O’Neill

    ‘An agenda’ is definitely reading to much into it. No one posts over Christmas so to combat the tumbleweed going through the site I thought of the survey idea. It’s meant as a bit of fun we don’t claim its scientific.

  • Sergiogiorgio

    Themmuns get everywhere, even onto the unionist Interweb…

  • Turgon

    Well Mick has frequently stated what the political preferences of the readership are; and more importantly in this regard the commenters (largely / very largely nationalist / republican). He has done whole blogs on the subject after all.

    He has also sought more unionist commenters: something snide remarks from you is hardly likely to help.

  • Brian O’Neill

    Assuming to know the political preference of the anonymous visitors to slugger is utter nonsense. Only around 1% of readers comment so to extrapolate that the commentators represent the views of all the visitors is false.

    In the new year we may do a reader survey to establish the views of the readers but in the meantime none of us can claim to know.

  • Turgon

    Well Mick has commented on the readership frequently over the years: long before you arrived. Maybe he is talking nonsense: why not ask him? To be fair you are right that extrapolation of readers from commenters is flawed. That said attacking unionist commenters when they comment is hardly likely to encourage them despite your protestations that you want more unionists.

    Back to the subject in hand you asked what we thought of your survey: One your comments suggest you are frightfully proud of. I answered and your response was somewhat petulant. Unfortunately a number of other commenters pointed out in more detail than me that it was not a great survey and that its results have little if any value. Shooting one of the messengers is hardly a mature response.

    Furthermore if you went to debate with the commenters why not remove the moderator hat.

    Oh and a happy New Year to you as well.

  • Brian O’Neill

    The survey is based on the questions we asked our panel at the Slugger end of year review show. It is designed to be a bit of fun in the otherwise quiet Christmas week. It is not meant to be scientific or taken seriously. Its only propose is to provide a stimulus for debate about what you think might happen next year.

  • Brian O’Neill

    Well we always welcome writers who want to give an alternative opinion.

  • Turgon

    So it was all a bit of fun: fine. Why the need to defend it so aggressively then? The lady doth protest too much me thinks.

  • Brian O’Neill

    I was disagreeing with your ‘Slugger’s predominantly nationalist / republican readership’ comment and I stand by my view that none of us can possibly know the political views of all readers.

  • Turgon

    So that bit of fun explains the attacks calling my comments (which echo Mick’s previously) nonsense?

    I see your own comment had been promoted to “Featured by Slugger O’Toole”. Who promoted it to that status by the way?

  • Nicholas Whyte

    Yes, I agree with this comment!

  • streetlegal

    NI21 was the last best hope for liberal unionism. The reactionaries have it – the reactionaries have it…

  • MainlandUlsterman

    Seems to be a lot of fuss here about what was presented as a bit of fun. Can’t it be taken in that spirit?