Latest SBP/REDC poll in the South-Sinn Fein still second

The first opinion poll taken in the South since the BBC Spotlight programme was conducted on Monday-Wednesday of the past week. Here are the results

Fine Gael-26% (-2)

Sinn Fein-20% (-3%)

Fianna Fail-18% (nc)

Labour-8% (nc)

Inds/Oths-28% (+5)

Overall, Sinn Fein will be happy with this poll as in other bad times for the party such as the Northern Bank robbery and the McCartney murder, the party’s support halved in just 9 weeks. This 3% drop is more stable and still maintains their position in second place.

The NUI academic, Adrian Kavanagh did his usual excellent analysis of just what this result would look like in seats

Dail seats estimate based on constituency level analysis of Sunday BP-Red C poll: FG 48 IND/OTH 41 FF 33 SF 29 LAB 7 http://t.co/inB62synMI

— Adrian Kavanagh (@AdrianKavanagh) October 25, 2014

But, what about the leader’s personal ratings? (Note; leader ratings do not always correspond with party success, in 1997, Mary Harney was the most popular leader in Ireland the Progressive Democrats halved in seats, likewise 1987, Garret Fitzgerald was personally well liked but Fine Gael still lost the election badly)

Joan Burton-41% (-4%)

Gerry Adams-40% (-7%)

Michael Martin-37% (-2%)

Eamon Ryan-33% (-4%)

Enda Kenny-29% (-6%)

David McCann

David McCann holds a PhD in North-South relations from University of Ulster. You can follow him on twitter @dmcbfs