Nuff history – Ed. Thanks to Alan and Chris Donnelly for presenting significant data on how Northern Ireland is faring. The third CRC Peace Monitoring Report by Dr Paul Nolan reads authoritatively, quite depressingly and utterly unsurprisingly. At around the same time, some polls have been published which broadly reflect the results but with the odd chink of light showing through. This post as much as anything is a plea for better qualified analysis and fuller discussion about this evidence than anything around so far.
Broadly what I’m reading is this:
Political attitudes are still significant but no longer decisive for defining the state of community relations and personal wellbeing.
Satisfaction with the Assembly is not consistently dire – but Protestants are less satisfied than Catholics.
Many poor Catholics are still poorer than most poor Protestants.
Despite all the bad news, hope springs eternal and – here’s the thing – the people in general are more advanced in their opinions than most politicians. How can this phenomenon be exploited?
I understand the danger of conflating different polls and surveys and comparing apples with pears. Low opinion of politicians is hardly limited to NI and blaming politicians for everything is far too easy an option. But the purpose of surveys is to enhance understanding. Thus my appeal for better and more analysis. It seems too much to hope for that this should come from the political parties – publicly at least – though no doubt they comb the evidence to help their positioning.
Next, to summarise key content. First,the Nolan Report’s “ ten key points”. Reading this there are no surprises, but there are hints of remedy in 4 -5 and 8 and grounds for optimism in 9.
1. The moral basis of the 1998 peace accord has evaporated.
2. The absence of trust has resulted in an absence of progress
3. There has been some increase in polarisation
4. A culture war is being talked into existence
5. The City of Culture year presented a different understanding of culture
6. Failure lies in wait for young working-class Protestant males.
7. Front line police have been the human shock absorbers for failures elsewhere.
8. The rebalancing of inequalities unbalances unionism.
9. At grassroots level the reconciliation impulse remains strong
10. No one picks up the tab Failure in Northern Ireland comes cost-free.
( Quoted in Nolan) An August 2013 Belfast Telegraph/LucidTalk opinion poll delivered a massive vote of no confidence in Stormont politicians. With only 9.4 per cent of those expressing an opinion rating the performance of Stormont as ‘excellent’ or ‘good’, the Assembly’s net approval rating sank deep into minus figures to -59.9 per cent. Gerry Lynch, an analyst for the pollsters LucidTalk said “this is the sort of score which a politician could expect after being arrested on serious criminal charges.”
The Telegraph’s latest Lucid Talk poll of 16-24 year olds earlier his month, looks a bit brighter. Are kids naturally more resilient or just naïve? On better relations and a good place to live the headline breakdown is about 60:40 in favour; on politicians nearer to 50:50. But when applies to Protestants and Catholics separately, the proportions are reversed: many more young Prods are more pessimistic and dissatisfied than young RCs.
A NICVA SURVEY by Ipsos Mori at end of March.
68% of respondents said economic policy was important when considering what party to vote for, and 56% said constitutional issues were important.
In relation to who they would trust with the economy, respondents were most likely to trust voluntary and community groups (73%), followed by the business community (55%). Respondents were least likely to trust the Northern Ireland Executive (39%).
Lots of analysis. Now where are the plans for action?
Former BBC journalist and manager in Belfast, Manchester and London, Editor Spolight; Political Editor BBC NI; Current Affairs Commissioning editor BBC Radio 4; Editor Political and Parliamentary Programmes, BBC Westminster; former London Editor Belfast Telegraph. Hon Senior Research Fellow, The Constitution Unit, Univ Coll. London