Update-#Ausvotes Tomorrow is election day in Australia-ABC projects Coalition Victory!

We are sending enough our people there, so I thought I’d do up a blog post on the election that is happening tomorrow.

Australia came to the attention of people here back in June when Kevin Rudd ousted Julia Gillard as Prime Minister. Well actually she ousted him first in June 2010 but anyway I shall not bore you with the intrigues of Australian Labor politics.

Rudd was brought back to help raise Labor’s dire position in the polls. Under Gillard the party was set to lose half of its 72 seats in parliament.

Rudd’s return did help the party for some weeks with polls reporting the ALP for the first time in over a year neck and neck with the opposition Coalition. However since this election was called five weeks ago the party has slipped in the polls and is now around 7-8% behind.

However, despite Rudd’s falling popularity he will still probably win more seats for the ALP than Gillard would have.

Tomorrow will be fascinating as around 90% plus Australians decide their new government. Voting is complusory in Australia and incurs a fine of £12 if you don’t vote.

Most Australian networks have lifted their geo-blocks for the election and you can watch online results as they come in from about 9am our time.

On a side note-Kevin Rudd the outgoing PM is a republican and the opposition leader, Tony Abbott, is a monarchist and actually was a leading figure who helped defeat the 1999 Australian republic referendum.

Current make up of the Australian parliament-76 needed for majority.





Also key thing to remember when governments lose they do so badly. Best result for a losing government was John Howard in 2007 with 47.3% and 65 seats. The worst result was Gough Whitlam in 1975 with 44.3% and 36 seats.

Early results pointing to ALP losing over 20 seats. ALP head office already leaking that Rudd was to blame for loss.

Also remember as of 9.50am-there are still 18 seats where polls have not closed.

ABC has projected a Coalition majority government at 10am.

Seat predictions-ABC-Coalition-93, ALP-56 and 1 independent.

7 News-Coalition-90, ALP-56 and 4 independents.

That’s it-12.15pm Coalition crosses the 76 seat mark and wins.

12:55pm-Rudd resigns as ALP leader.

David McCann holds a PhD in North-South relations from University of Ulster. You can follow him on twitter @dmcbfs

  • Charles_Gould

    All that infighting is such a turnoff.

  • Drumlins Rock

    Thats 150 MPs to 22 million ( 1 per 146,000 )
    Uk is 650 MPs to 64 million ( 1 per 98,000 )
    Ireland 166 TDs to 5 million ( 1 per 30,000 )

    Considering the size of the place maybe a touch under represented?

  • Charles_Gould

    DR remember that they have a federal system, so there is a LOT of power in each of the states.

  • Mainland Ulsterman

    Have you seen this unofficial election plea by an Aussie Labor supporter? Brilliantly written, but if you don’t like swearing, don’t look.

  • dodrade

    The republic debate is pretty much moribund in Australia and hasn’t featured in the election campaign, it seems to be of interest now only to British journalists.

  • Charles_Gould

    Labuor have really squandered this term. What have they done for the working class in Australia in this present term?

  • David McCann

    It’s a mix-the whole Rudd/Gillard fued crippled the government. Three leadership ballots in three years.

    Gillard’s statement 2010 ‘there will be no carbon tax under a government I lead’ and then proceeds to introduce a carbon tax after the election.

  • Charles_Gould

    A highly paternalist/authoritarian streak – banning branding on cigarettes.

  • Charles_Gould


    What did this Labour government do for economic inequality? For the working class?

  • Rory Carr

    Tony Abbott famously declared that “No one, however smart, however well-educated, however experienced, was the suppository of all wisdom,” not realising that at least one man at least was worthy of that title – the man who continually talks out of his arse !

  • David McCann

    Charles-they’ve introduced the National Disability Insurance Scheme and dramatically increased schools funding.

    Australia is in fairness much easier to climb the ladder in than here. But it was like that before the ALP came to power.

  • IJP

    Lose not loose – I’ve seen MLAs get that wrong and it’s bloody irritating!

    “Lose” they will and were always going to. Pathetic that personal infighting took over from Labor’s otherwise reasonable record. The next Government faces a real challenge as the commodities boom ends. I wish it well.

  • PeterOHanrahanrahan

    The better half is Australian and is refusing to speak to anyone about the election until a week after the results; my facebook newsfeed is like a live report from the apocalypse, such is the perception of Abbott from the lefty side. Herself works in international development and is staring a $9 billion cut in foreign aid taking her career down with it, as well as the assault on women’s rights taking her family planning out to boot.

    I never saw the infighting of Labor as a bad thing – Keating’s assumption of power arose from such battles and he was arguably the finest PM the country has ever seen.

  • Harry Flashman

    “a live report from the apocalypse, such is the perception of Abbott from the lefty side. Herself works in international development and is staring a $9 billion cut in foreign aid taking her career down with it, as well as the assault on women’s rights taking her family planning out to boot.”

    Jeez, the left going into a hysterical meltdown screaming about “CUTBACKS!!!” and making up nonsense about a war on women just because a centre-right politician looks like he’s going to win an election.

    Wow, that is so unusual.

    What else? Oh yeah I’m sure he’s a racist too, there’s always the racism card.


  • Charles_Gould

    Any exit polls due?

  • Mick Fealty

    Behave Harry!!

  • Charles_Gould

    Exit polls suggest a big win for the Liberals….


  • Delphin

    I think it’s all over bar the counting
    From the ABC site
    Voting in the federal election is now closed in the eastern states, where Labor appears on track to be swept from power.
    Exit polling has suggested the Government is facing a wipeout in New South Wales and Queensland, with several high-profile MPs at risk of losing their seats.
    Retiring defence minister Stephen Smith has told ABC News 24 he fears tonight’s defeat for Labor could be worse than the 1996 landslide which swept Paul Keating from power.

  • Charles_Gould

    The new PM of Australia seems to have a proactive attitude to Aboriginal people.

  • Charles_Gould

    For those wanting a bit of live coverage

  • Charles_Gould

    The ALP did nothing for the least well off.

  • PeterOHanrahanrahan


    “Jeez, the left going into a hysterical meltdown screaming about “CUTBACKS!!!”

    You mean the project on which my partner works, and the one which has been directly earmarked for elimination after the Liberal win? It is ‘hysterical meltdown’ to bemoan the loss of your livelihood? Australian foreign aid is critical to many development projects in SE Asia, the loss of funding there will see the rolling back of a huge swathe of achievements in health, human trafficking, legal reform, disease control, etc. But since we’re batting around inane assumptions, I guess we’d best be trading, not aiding, right?

    “and making up nonsense about a war on women just because a centre-right politician looks like he’s going to win an election”

    No-one has made up a single action or word of Tony Abbott’s on this matter. Gillard was on the receiving end of some of the most grotesque gender-based insults during her time in office, and Abbott’s silence in his failure to condemn was deafening. Using his daughters as “not-bad looking” vote-bait should give you an idea of his own perception of women, as well as some of his prize quotes, which are easily found.

    “What else? Oh yeah I’m sure he’s a racist too, there’s always the racism card.”

    As opposed to the ‘brain-dead assumption about left-wingers’ card? Harry, I know you’re happy that a centre-right is getting in and all, but there’s no need to make yourself look like a trafficker-in-stereotypes in celebration. The nearest I’ve seen to him saying something racist is this gem:

    ‘Jesus knew that there was a place for everything and it’s not necessarily everyone’s place to come to Australia.’

    And that makes him look like something, but it’s not racist.


    Your best work on-topic yet.

  • Harry Flashman

    Paul it was you who started the hyperbole about an Abbott win. Trust me in this; five years of moderate right-of-centre government is not about to cause an “apocalypse” (your word) in Australia, it really won’t.

    I am sorry if your missus loses her job, but that does not actually amount to a nationwide disaster for Australia, I live in SE Asia and I know that Australia will not somehow end all its ties and projects with the region especially as Abbott is perfectly well aware of the huge importance of Australia’s role there. He might just cut back on a few of the blodgers that’s all, it’s not the end of the world.

    The continuous Pavlovian reaction of the Left, as illustrated by your comments above, to the idea of a moderate centre-right political party gaining office has poisoned the well of political debate in the Anglosphere countries. Lefties need to wind down the rhetoric a wee bit, the second coming of the Third Reich is not around the corner every time a fiscally conservative, socially moderate politician wins office.

    We now have conservative prime ministers in the UK, Canada, New Zealand and Australia, I haven’t seen too many cattle trains clanking off to the east with their wailing human cargoes yet, have you?

    Calm down dear.

  • PeterOHanrahanrahan

    Harry, I used the word “apocalypse” to describe the reactions of my friends on the left, not my own; read carefully, sweetheart (since we’re “poisoning the well of political debate”). I didn’t bring up the prospect of the Third Reich, or anything like that at all; that is – yet again – your own construction, which appears to be borne out of some need of yours to stereotype the left. We have not seen any “trains clanking off to the east” because it is more cost-effective for the Con-Lib coalition to screw over the poor in their own homes, but that’s a different argument for a different thread.

    The reaction is not against the Liberals in-and-of-themselves; if Turnbull was currently shaking off the hangover of his own election as PM, the sounds coming out from the left would be much more to your liking. Abbott is not the idiot he is made out to be, but his statements on a wide range of topics – whether prepared or given in the heat of the moment, which is clearly not his element – give much pause, although apparently most of all on his own part.

    If you think $9 billion in cuts in foreign aid is getting rid of a few “blodgers” (I assume you mean bludgers), I dread to think of your idea of major axe-swinging.

    You don’t happen to live in Singapore, by any chance?

  • Harry Flashman

    “Abbott is not the idiot he is made out to be”

    Ah yes, I forgot the other usual knee-jerk reaction of the left to a right-wing politician, he must ipso facto be stupid because lefties are oh-so-clever as everyone knows.

    No one with an inkling of knowledge about Australian affairs believes Abbott is an idiot, only left-wing propagandists parrot that rubbish. Abbott was a Rhodes scholar, he ain’t remotely stupid and neither are the Australian electorate.

    “You don’t happen to live in Singapore, by any chance?”

    No, why?

  • Charles_Gould

    Abbott sounds an interesting figure. Socially conservative, which makes him not instinctively free market, he trained to be a priest when he was younger. He was put off the labour party by its republicanism. (Pen sketch in the FT).