#Euref: The Ayes have it. But do they really think it’s all over?

So the polls had it spot on.

The final tallies were… Yes (60.3%): 955091; No (39.7%) 629088…

But as has been noted throughout the day, Europe is no where near resolving the actual problems… Meanwhile no one in Brussels is thinking about anything other than the lengthening shadow of the Spanish banking crisis

One thing that’s obvious from watching the body language of the day is: One, the government parties are relieved they can get on with the next bit; two, Sinn Fein got the prize of taking control of the political rebel camp; and three the visible relaxation on the part of Fianna Fail reps who are not just relieved of the burden of being the bad guys, but delighted to talk on behalf of the political grown ups…

Meanwhile in Greece, Alexis Tsipras, the leader of far left Syriza wants the next general election vote to be a sort of referendum on terminating his country’s bailout agreement. Populist no doubt. But politically dangerous too.

If there is anything to be learned from the Irish referendum it must be that large national populations are not keen on taking big risks, even if the alternative is a long dull austere period of slow recovery… It was a hell of a party… Now it’s time to pay the bill…

  • Zig70

    Read a nice quote,”you can’t have irresponsible borrowers, without irresponsible lenders” from Bloomberg. It was over ages ago for the tax payer. Euref was just a sideshow. The more I read the less I understand. I’m stuck on the mechanism and morality or transferring so much private bank debt to soveriegn eu debt and therefore taxpayers. The greek election has just given more time for money to be pulled out of the country and we are getting a self fulfilling prophecy will the Nero’s in Eu fiddle.

  • Zig70

    Link to quote. http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-23/merkel-should-know-her-country-has-been-bailed-out-too.html
    The bit I balked at was bundesbank pulling out money from greece. Sounds easy but I’m sure it is fairly technical.

  • Alias

    The Irish are now fully aboard a sinking ship, having traded their lifejacket for a straightjacket. This is the end of their short-lived independence. The collapse of the euro, which they have dedicated all reserves and assets to saving, will now completely wipe them out – and it’ll happen far sooner than they dare imagine. And even if by some miracle it doesn’t collapse, soon more than half of their ever-declining tax revenue will be diverted from the domestic economy and exported to France and Germany, for the purpose of propping up massively overleveraged eurosystem banks. Given that revenue is already half of what it was, that works out at a 75% cut in state services. Your granny better start growing potatoes because she’s going to need them…

  • cynic2

    It’s only just begun, sadly. The ship is sinking and all the Irish can do is hope they cling to the lifebelt longer than the other pigs. My money is on Greece out first followed by Portugal then Italy. Perversely Spain may stay because the rest of Europe sees its government as rational and it as too close to home to let go

  • aquifer

    Ireland will have cheaper borrowing now because of the result.

    Well done. Sell Spain and Italy, buy Ireland.

    Maybe now they can finance the Green New deal that our minister’s ducked, to take some of the economic sting out of those public sector wage and benefit cuts.