2012 Prediction Contest

OK – Ten questions – predictions any time this year please – answers this time next year:

i) Who will be the Republican nomination for US President?
ii) Who will be the leader of the UK Labour Party this time next year?
iii) Who will be the leader of Sinn Féin this time next year?
iv) How far will the Republic of Ireland go in the Euro Football?
v) How many gold medals will Wales win in the Olympics?
vi) How many countries will be admitted to the UN?
vii) How many languages will die (to the nearest 5)?
viii) What percentage will the 2011 census reveal as People of a Protestant Tradition in NI (the headline number)? (To the nearest 0.5%)
ix) Ditto with any knowledge of Welsh in Wales?
x) Who will come second in the Six Nations (Rugby)?

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  • Reader

    Clarification please, for (v)
    What about team games? And what about people who have moved around the UK – for instance, would it be based on current residence? eligibility for football team?
    Also – (viii) I assume that’s relating to Q18, not Q17?

  • Dewi

    v) Team games count – eligibility based on:
    a) Welsh team at commonwealth games.
    if not applicable my judgement!
    viii) If Q18 relates to tradition maybe. What I was was referring to was what the census people come up with after allocating those who do not state a religion. Is that what Q18 was for?

  • Drumlins Rock

    Romney, Ed Milliband, Gerry Adams, wont make quarters, none (no idea about Welsh athelites but the country wont win any), none (Palastine wont get full membership), 10?, 43%, 22%, wales

  • Dewi

    43% DR? Am I asking the wrong question?

  • Drumlins Rock

    think im pretty consevative and pedantic in my guesses.

  • Drumlins Rock

    sorry dewi, your right, that is the “active religious” figure protestant tradition is around the 50%, but the Catholic figure wont increase much either if any, the grey area is growing.

  • Dewi

    Forgot to add my predictions:
    Huntsman, Ed Milliband, John O’Dowd, Semis, 4,1, 30, 50.2%, 24.6%, France.

  • john

    Mitt Romney
    Ed Milliband
    Gerry Adams
    Quarter Finals
    1 (although dont know what you do with relay teams if 1 of 4 is Welsh!)
    None
    35
    Community background protestant 48%
    Welsh speeking 23%
    Ireland

  • Dewi

    If 1 of any team is Welsh that counts as 1.

  • john

    Ok in that case change my answer for the gold medals to 3

  • Drumlins Rock

    Dewi, was Palastine the country your thinking off? Apart from it where do you think the next new country will be born? I’m going to go for a Belgian breakup myself. Although they could do it without creating new countries, Belgium becomes a city state round Brussles, the Flemish areas join the Netherlands, most of the Waloons France and the German bits and a few other to Luxenbourg. Yemen could re-split, and Morocco-Western Sahara could merge formally. Scotland would take longer even with a yes vote.

  • Cynic2

    i) Mitt Romney
    ii) Yvette Cooper
    iii) Mary Lou MacDonald
    iv) First Round
    v) 0
    vi) 2
    vii)14
    viii) 53.7%
    ix) 65.4%
    x) France

  • Dewi

    Kurdistan DR

  • Drumlins Rock

    Had though of it Dewi, but too many countries involved would be very messy, espically Turkey.

  • I’d not severely differ from Dewi‘s go @ 11:49, especially with those guesstimate percentages.

    90%+ it’ll be either Romney or Perry, with the likelihood of it being Romney. Santorum is not a total wipe-out, yet. Huntsman is the more personable (and less flip-flopping) of the two Mormons; but he’ll only get the nod if the Convention goes to multiple ballots. Let’s wait for the Iowa bounce.

    On experience so far, (i) is effectively “bum of the month club”. I see Chris Christie of NJ has indicated a willingness to take the Veep spot. Which says a lot about what he thinks of GOP chances in 2012, and whom he thinks should take the (far more promising) top spot in 2016 — especially if, by then, the Republicans have overcome their OD on camellia sinensis and are back in the real world.

    Any chance of (ii) having sub-sections on (b and c) who will lead the Tory Party and the LibDems, and even (d) in which month will the ConDem coalition collapse? All are at least as likely as four wings (a bit of a buffalo, then) of the Labour Party combining to go doolally over a change of leader at this stage (despite the Tory press drooling for a bit of action).

    Six Nations? England have England and Wales at home, but have to go to Murrayfield and Paris, while desperately and comprehensively rebuilding. Fourth place, if Ireland can’t pull off an away win?

    Ireland have Wales and Scotland at home (I refuse to brand-name Lansdowne Road) — but have Paris and Twickenham, even if it’s St Patrick’s Day evening, to overcome.

    Wales ought to do well — I guess how well depends on taking Ireland at Lansdowne and holding a thrusting France in their last game of their season. In my mind, it’s France to beat — and then there’ll be Katharina Fritsch’s blue cockerel on the Fourth Plinth for 2013. Highly symbolic, no doubt; and a German artist to boot.

    All in, I’d venture France, Wales /Ireland, England, Scotland, Italy.

    A trifle off-topic: the Times nominates “Briton of the Year” — Alex Salmond. Now there’s someone most likely to keep his place over the next twelvemonth.

    As for the Olympics frolic: quite frankly, my dear, I couldn’t give a damn. We Londoners are merely paying for the privilege of having our city and transport become untenable. The only good news will be if Ken, not Blasted Boris, is the face in the frame. Well, in all truth, not “good news” but “slightly better”. And I rather liked Yinka Shonibare ship-in-the-bottle on the Fourth Plinth.

  • Typo alert:

    England have Ireland and Wales at home …

  • Obelisk

    1. Newt Gingrich
    2. Ed Milliband
    3. Gerry Adams
    4.Won’t survive the Knockout Phase
    5. One
    6.Zero
    7.Ten
    8. 49.5%
    9. 25%
    10. England

  • i) Newt
    ii) Ed
    iii) Gerry
    iv) Quarters (btw the answer above makes no sense, to survive knockout stage is to win)
    v) 2
    vi) 2
    vii) 5
    viii) 47.5
    ix) 40
    x) France (to wales)

  • Dewi

    Malcolm – just answer mun!

  • gréagóir o frainclín

    Who will be the Republican nomination for US President? ….Some Religious Right Wing Nut!
    ii) Who will be the leader of the UK Labour Party this time next year? …. Balls!
    iii) Who will be the leader of Sinn Féin this time next year?……Pearse Doherty! (ahhh… named after Padraig Pearse …the once Religious Right Wing Nut!)
    iv) How far will the Republic of Ireland go in the Euro Football? …..Will miss the flight……as some ‘Nordy’ folk hope.
    v) How many gold medals will Wales win in the Olympics?…ermmm…None?….. They are ‘British’ medals.
    vi) How many countries will be admitted to the UN?….Who Cares!
    vii) How many languages will die (to the nearest 5)?….ermmmm 10 … including Gaelic? ……as some ‘Nordy’ folk hope.
    viii) What percentage will the 2011 census reveal as People of a Protestant Tradition in NI (the headline number)? (To the nearest 0.5%)……..45% …. but it will be put down as 51% ‘officially’ for the next 10 years and more!
    ix) Ditto with any knowledge of Welsh in Wales? errrmmmmm ……. 101%?
    x) Who will come second in the Six Nations (Rugby)? Ireland of course as they nearly always do …… well up to recently. BTW the Grand Slam was a one off…it will be another 60 odd years before we win it again.

  • 1 Mitt Romney
    2 Ed Miliband
    3 I think Gerry Adams will stand down…..his successor will be a woman.
    4 Wont get out of group.
    5 Wales obviously win any gold medals as its not represented (in its own right) but the probability is that Welsh folks will win gold medals in team competitions.

    I see Gareth Bale in “Team GB” Football. The bulk of the “Team GB” will be underage English players and as there is a limited number of places available for overage players it is unlikely these will go to English players as the better English players will be involved in Europe. Therefore there is an opportunity for Bale who is probably the best non-English player available.
    Possibly Jonny Evans will go as token Norn Iron person. And there will be a token Scot.

    I have an awful feeling that a David Beckham-influenced team will actually win Gold. Whether any Welshman considers Bale getting on the podium a price worth paying to hear stirring renditions of “Footballs Coming Home” I just dont know.
    Likewise there is a chance that the Hockey Squads will do wel but I dont know if many Welsh men and women will be involved as previous Games have shown that England Hockey tends to dominate selection for reasons of er…….continuity.
    I note that a Welsh lad and a Scots guy have both qualified for the Olympics thru representing Wales and Scotland in either rankings or qualification competitions but only one can go to London. So a box off is inevitable. Maybe even three way if an English boxer qualifies.
    So that should provide nationalists in Wales and Scotland with an opportunity to show up “English” misrule.
    Watch this space. There will be eligibility and selection issues.
    Personally Id hope for a Welsh or Scot to have a John Carlos (USA …)1968 or Peter O’Connor (Ireland…1906)
    moment.

  • roadnottaken

    (i) Gringrich
    (ii) Harriet Harman (yes I know) ..possibly a punt on Chuka Umunna
    (iii) Doherty, with Mary Lou continuing as Deputy.. could even be a contest just to liven things up a bit, with Gildernew as the Northern candidate
    (iv) Quarter Finals
    (v) Taking a random guess…. 2
    (vi) None
    (vii) 10
    (viii) 49%
    (ix) Haven’t a clue…
    (x) Ireland

  • Zig70

    1. Don’t know
    2. Please not the goofy rabbit.
    3. Gerry
    4. Heart or head. Head says fingernails will be lost against Italy on the Houghton aniversary.
    5 1
    6 don’t know – 0
    7 More blarney – 5
    8 49.5
    9 Not a notion – 33
    10 I’d like to see Wales win as it means so much to them, so England.

  • Dewi

    Need more entrants please.

  • USA

    1)Who will be the Republican nomination for US President?
    Mitt Romney
    iii) Who will be the leader of Sinn Féin this time next year?
    Gerry Adams
    iv) How far will the Republic of Ireland go in the Euro Football?
    One point and out.

  • antoinmaccomhain

    iv) How far will the Republic of Ireland go in the Euro Football?

    0-0,0-0,0-1-‘We were unlucky with injuries’.Robbie Keane will score a hat-trick,in a pre-tournament match against Malta or the Faroe Islands….But Feck it -We have an away match coming up against Sweden…..Record numbers have fled from their native land….Divorce is at epidemic levels…..

  • Reader

    i) Huntsman
    ii) Ed Milliband
    iii) Gerry
    iv) 1st Round
    v) 2
    vi) 1
    vii) 20
    viii) 51 (Question 18)
    ix) 24 (spoken)
    x) England

  • Dewi,
    I cant really enter an answer to questions 6-10 as I just dont know.
    I always find the dog days after Christmas are ideal for idly speculating/predicting unlikely recipients of “New Years Honours”….especially those who have been fawning on the Establishment for years.
    The relevance here is that perhaps the Olympic Flag will be marched around the Stadium by “Sir” David Beckham