Red C poll confirms Higgins retains leadership of the field…

The Red C poll is slightly less generous to McGuinness and more generous to Norris, but everything else is pretty much as the Irish Times:

Higgins 25% (+7); Gallagher 21% (+10); McGuinness 16 (nc); Norris 14 (-7); Mitchell 10 (-3); Davis 9 (-4); Scallon 5 (-1)

Key Findings (full report on the RTE site here)

• Michael D Higgins tops the poll securing 25% of the first preference vote, a rise of 7% since a similar poll conducted for the Sunday Business Post a week ago. He also remains in pole position with regard to transfers and based on this poll is likely to win the election.

• However, Sean Gallagher actually has even stronger upward momentum, and appears to benefit from the demise of both Norris and Davis. He takes second place in this poll with 21% of the first preference vote, a rise of 10% in just one week.

• McGuinness retains his position in third place, having secured 16% first preference, the same as a week ago. His share appears to be limited at around this level, with poor levels of transfer suggested by the poll analysis. He is also the candidate that over a third of the public least want to see become president.

• David Norris falls back into fourth place, securing 14% of the vote, a drop of 7%, having lead a similar poll last week with 21% share. He is still liked by the public who suggest he is the candidate that most would like to have to dinner, but his suitability for this role now appears to be in question.

• Gay Mitchell is fourth securing just 10% first preference, a fall of 3% in the past week. Suggesting that while the campaigning against other candidates like Norris, McGuinness and Davis is working, it isn’t giving Mitchell a lift himself. He also only secures 15% of the Fine Gael vote, with Higgins taking 27% and Gallagher 25%.

• Mary Davis also sees her vote decline by 3% after a week of intense scrutiny, leaving her in sixth place on 9% first preference.

• Finally, Dana remains in last place, securing 5% of the first preference vote, down 1% in the past week.

• It is a case of young vs. old among the top two candidates, with Higgins needing to do better among younger voters and Gallagher needing to persuade older voters more on his credentials.

• Transfers are initially positive for Gallagher, as Davis is likely to go out early on – but after this Higgins dominates the transfers for the next three candidates suggesting at this stage that he is currently in a strong position to secure the Presidency.

• When Irish Citizens are asked who they think will win the election, most think that Higgins will be elected, Gallagher needs to portray a stronger image of someone that should be President.

Hat tip to David and Politics.ie for the information…

  • Nordie Northsider

    This poll was taken post Vincent Browne debate. Could be that Vincent’s IRA library stunt hurt McGuinness a little.

  • What I don’t immediately see there — perhaps because I didn’t look close enough — is any indication of reliability. The Red C poll is with a significantly smaller sample than IPSOS — and IPSOS claim only +/- 3% margin of error.

  • Mick Fealty

    732 is the base, so the error rate’s significantly higher than -/+3%… Love the data set though… MASSIVE caveat even given the increased error margins, people are notorious poor at truthfully remembering how they voted last time out.

    But the poll tells us where the missing FF voters are going.. and that up to 30% of SF’s March vote is not currently moving behind Martin… Although he is taking 10% of those who voted FG, which if true is not an insignificant number…

    Also, with FF in mind, SF is taking one of the poorest shares of their March vote (only Mitchell and Dana are doing worse). Which suggests there’s not much of a flank there for FF to defend, or for SF to eat into.

    These trends are highly conditioned by region… I’ll most the more complete data set above shortly…

  • keano10

    The Poll summary also states that:

    “McGuinness is the only party candidate to really hold on to party supporters. Higgins only retains 28% of Labour supporters, with a large chunk still supporting Norris. Mitchell does very poorly among Fine Gael supporters, only securing 15%, while Gallagher takes 25% and Higgins 27% of the Fine Gael vote. Independent candidate voters are evenly split across the top four candidates”.

    Clearly McGuinness needs to gain more potential transfers but I suspect that SF will push hard to try and get 18-19% of first preferences thus doubling their perecentage vote in the general election. He also polls strongly with male voters but poorly amongst women voters. Perhaps he needs to borrow a few suits and a pair of dapper sunglasses from Gerry Kelly…

  • [The following is not off-topic.]

    I trust some saw the Lisney ad among today’s Irish Times (print edition) property porn.

    If not — ahem! — it is thoughtfully considered elsewhere.

  • Munsterview

    Mick : “….Although he is taking 10% of those who voted FG, which if true is not an insignificant number…”

    I have said from the outset that a significant FG vote will not go to Mitchell and some of that will come Sinn Fein’s way.