Where is the Fianna Fail vote going in #Aras11?

This has just come up as an off topic conversation on another thread. Whilst the Red C poll gives a good idea of where the candidates where just before the campaign began, it does tell us where the core vote of each of the parties is going.

Both Sinn Fein and Labour candidates were up on their parties poll showing, whilst Fine Gael was spectacularly down. But given none of the four other candidates are representatives of political parties, it is hard to tell where the vote of others is going.

In particular, it is not easy to tell where the non combatant Fianna Fail party vote (what’s left of it) is going… So tell us, what’s your guess? And why do you think that way?

Adds: Erm, thanks to John and Sean below, it seems they are jumping to Gallagher… McGuinness is moving up nicely, and Michael D is getting caught up (this could lose a lot of people a lot of money…) Norris and Mitchell are dropping like stones…

Mick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty

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