Where is the Fianna Fail vote going in #Aras11?

This has just come up as an off topic conversation on another thread. Whilst the Red C poll gives a good idea of where the candidates where just before the campaign began, it does tell us where the core vote of each of the parties is going.

Both Sinn Fein and Labour candidates were up on their parties poll showing, whilst Fine Gael was spectacularly down. But given none of the four other candidates are representatives of political parties, it is hard to tell where the vote of others is going.

In particular, it is not easy to tell where the non combatant Fianna Fail party vote (what’s left of it) is going… So tell us, what’s your guess? And why do you think that way?

Adds: Erm, thanks to John and Sean below, it seems they are jumping to Gallagher… McGuinness is moving up nicely, and Michael D is getting caught up (this could lose a lot of people a lot of money…) Norris and Mitchell are dropping like stones…

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  • seanobriain

    Judging by the polls – Probably in part to Seán Gallagher.

  • John Ó Néill

    Irish Times busy too. Gallagher, ex-FF National Executive would be a good guess?

  • FuturePhysicist

    Seems Gallagher, though the three other independents might do well out of it.

  • Alias

    I think a lot of folks are going to come unstuck in the next couple of weeks by making premature predictions with so many

    volatile variables in play.

    Mitchell will do marginally worse than the polls suggest because he has a lot of support from an age group that doesn’t

    bother to vote and will have even less incentive to bother to do so when their preferred candidate is so far behind in the

    polls. Higgins has a similiar problem but as he is ahead in the polls that will work to overcome a similiar outcome. I’d

    still bet on him to win with the transfers pushing him way up.

    The Red C poll giving only 10% of FF vote to McGuinness and not registering anything for Dana makes me discount its value.

    But apart from the question of where the FF vote is going, isn’t it just as valid to ask where the FG vote is going, given

    that it isn’t going to their candidate?

  • Alias

    John, is Gallagher’s vote really not just the ‘two fingers to the establishment’ vote that the Shinners were hoping to capitalise on?

  • FuturePhysicist

    In terms of losing money, it’s tough to see a situation where Higgins is beaten when it comes to transfers. If it’s Higgins vs. Martin, Higgins will be seen as the lesser evi by other votersl. If it’s Higgins vs. Gallagher, then Higgins will probably get most of McGuinness’s transfers, most of Norris’s transfers and problably most of the rest.

    Ultimately McGuinness and Gallagher supporters would have to back each other over Higgins to stand any chance.

  • Alias

    McGuinness will be eliminated a few counts before that could happen simply because his support comes from a core group with little appeal outside of it.

    Incidentally, it’s easy to say that FF support will transfer to Davis or Gallagher because both of them are de facto FF’ers but that is predicated on assuming the type of blind loyalty that really shouldn’t be assumed because its absence is why many of them are now ex-FF voters. There is essentially two FF classes of voters now: those who voted for them in the last election and those who would have but didn’t. Those who did vote for them still have the old core FF values: catholic and nationalist above all else. The rest might be catholic and nationalist but not above all else. So it’s a case of which group of FF’ers is being referred to. If those who actually voted then I just don’t see it going anywhere other than McGuinness and Dana, with some going to FG because its continuing the old policy of bailing out the banks and thereby keeping rich farmers and grocer ilk out of harm’s way.

    While the Irish voting public might have more degrees per capita than any other nation in Europe, they’re remarkably uneducated in their voting practices. Unfortunately, this election is going to be used by a frighteningly large percentage of the population to ‘send a message’ to the government. If Gallagher does well then the message is ‘please promote job creation via support for indigenous businesses.’ Pretty good message actually (if not the actual purpose of it), whereas if McGuinness does well then the message is a bit cruder. Mary Davis, with all due respect to her, is little more than a quangocrat.

    Gallagher, I think, might have stole McGuinness’ thunder but the voodoo about public moods is that if you can do well out of them if you capture them and you can also shape them just for long enough to do well out of them…

  • John Ó Néill

    Alias – these are only first soundings so I’d attach a strong health warning. FG losing votes to Michael D and Gallagher showing well are both before any real focus on them.

  • keano10

    The Red C poll was conducted before the TV3 debate. It will be very interesting to see the how the next poll pans out. Todays Irish Star reports that over 820,000 people tuned in to the televised date. There were also 80,000 hits on TV3’s online stream. There may be a further bounce for McGuinness who performed well. I also thought that Mary Davis did particularly well during most of the debate.

  • keano10

    Ps – Does anyone know when the next scheduled poll is due to take place? Thanks 🙂