Via World by Storm (since I’m too tight to take out even a daily sub on the Sunday Times) that poll at the weekend. General election results in brackets.
Fine Gael 44% (36)
Fianna Fail 15% (17)
Sinn Fein 13% (10)
Labour 12% (19)
Greens 2% (2)
IND/others 12% (15)
Interestingly the biggest change is on the government side with Fine Gael benefiting from what WbS refers to as a mudguard effect. I’d quibble somewhat with that, in that it’s probably more to do with the way the two parties segmented the electorate with FG taking the private sector and Labour the public.
Having Brendan Howlin in charge of cuts in the new post of Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform is less a mudguard for Fine Gael, and more forcing the poacher to eat his own poison. It’s not a strong move for Labour in the short term at least.
And it’s one that both Fine Gael (and to a lesser extent Sinn Fein -up three points from the election) are benefiting from. Labour face the same problem as the Greens, in that a poll lapse now may not matter by the time of the next election, if they can demonstrate public progress over the whole term.
Mick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty