There are more than two shades of Green

Chris has provided a very useful analysis of what he sees as the main electoral battleground between the two forms of constitutional nationalism. One of the main areas of growth he suggested for SF was at council level. However, he overlooked that at this election SF will be facing numerous challenges across multiple councils from Republicans of various hues.

In January I suggested 22 Council seats that dissenting Republicans could consider running in. While I didn’t get them all right, republicans will have a non-SF option in 17 areas (if I’ve missed anyone please let me know and worse if anyone is on the list that shouldn’t be advise me ASAP): 

Dungannon: 

Torrent – Patricia Campbell

Dungannon Town – Barry Monteith 

Fermanagh: 

Enniskillen – Pat Cox 

Erne East – Gerry McHugh 

Erne West – Bernice Swift 

Omagh: 

Mid Tyrone – Paul Grogan 

Strabane:

Mourne  – Paul Gallager (IRSP) 

Derry:

Shantallow -Martin McMonagle (IRSP) 

Northland – Lucy Callaghan (IRSP) 

Magherafelt: 

Moyola – Oliver Hughes

Sperrin – Patrick Groogan

 Moyle: 

Ballycastle – Padraig McShane (????) 

Belfast: 

Oldpark – Paul Little (IRSP)

Lower Falls – Jim Gorman (IRSP)

Lower Falls – John McCusker (éirígí)

Upper Falls – Padraic Mac Coitir (éirígí) 

Newry:

Newry Town – Davy Hyland 

It seems that dissenting republicans have learnt a lesson from the humiliation of the anti-PSNI Assembly election campaign of 2007 and this time have set themselves slightly more realistic targets.

Any success for these candidates would impact on what Chris Donnelly highlights as SF’s main target growth area – Council elections they underperformed in in 2005.

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  • Chris Donnelly

    Mark
    I really don’t see more than a handful of those candidates being in with a chance.

    Hyland, Swift, McHugh, Hughes and Groogan are prospects, but I don’t envisage any of the IRP/ Eirigi candidates making the cut.

  • Mark McGregor

    Chris,

    Interesting how your analysis of dissenters only gives a chance to a few that previously held an elected SF position.

    I’ll wait and see but think 3 IRSP/éirígí seats are in play (would have been 4 if not for the Lower Falls nonsense)

  • Drumlins Rock

    Locally Monteith has a chance as a sitting Cllr. being young and articulate and seen as hardline but not a nutcase, but he needs a full quota to make it I guess, learning Portuguese might help as foreign Nationals could easily elect their own cllr. in Dungannon Town!
    Know less about Torrent, but with 4 SF existing, there obviously is scope to carve off enough of a vote there.

  • Chris Donnelly

    Mark
    That’d be because party voting weighs heavily on the electorate’s mind- hence the fairly consistent story of former party members failing to match their performance when appearing on the ballot beside the party logo.

    Of course, we’ll find out soon enough but I can’t see the IRSP getting anywhere near a seat whilst Eirigi are about to discover how unrepresentative the republican activist base is in the context of an electoral constituency….

  • Coll Ciotach

    Chris – I hear that Fidelma Leonard, who worked for McHugh is standing for council – but am I correct that McHugh is not? I cannot see his name anywhere.

  • Sam Maguire

    Gary Donnelly in Derry is another.

    Gallagher has a puncher’s chance in Strabane for the 6th seat given the clusterfuckage that has gone on within the SDLP in the town.

  • Big Boss

    Drumlins Rock,

    I think Monteith will stand a very good chance of re-gaining his seat or at least he will stay in the running for quite some time. I suspect he will get a good bit of the transfers from SF. If he does get a seat, im not sure if it will be at the expense of the 2nd Shinner or the SDLP….though i suspect the latter. H

  • Big Boss

    Damn enter button

    anyway,

    Monteith has a good base to work from and it will be interesting to see if he can indeed put up a fight.

    Campbell in Torrent is a different issues, and i dont expect her to be anywhere near elected. While SF dont have Oneill or Molly running (replaced by very questionable reps, who anywhere else wouldn’t be selected by the party) i dont believe she will have the support to get close to a Quota.

    I believe the other independent James Walshe will stand a better chance of getting elected as he is running on the big issue of the Canal (so will the SDLP with SF on the opposing side)…but in the end id be surprised if it is SF 4, SDLP1, UUP 1…… though ill be voting for both SDLP and Walshe.

  • Pat Mc Larnon

    It is to be welcomed that these very small groupings of constitutional nationalists (along with independents) are testing their support.

  • vanhelsing

    What about those pesky environmentalists aren’t they a shade of green too 🙂

  • An Phoblacht Abu

    Id say Gallagher will get in,partly due to the SDLP splitting like the popular front of judea and partly due to Sinn Fein standing one candidate in particular whos idea of community politics is showing up for the easter commemoration, or as my friend put it ‘in strabane they could run a donkey wrapped in a tri-colour and it would be elected, it appears the provos couldnt find the donkey so had to run him’

    the assembly election for west tyrone could prove interested as well due to sdlp split, a chance that sinn fein might grab that fourth seat

  • J Kelly

    they irsp and donzo have next to no chance in derry, any of them will be lucky to get 300 to 400 votes.