It’s Saturday as I write this, listening to the RoI GE11 results come in, as well as the analysis we are already hearing predictions for the next election, will it be a revived FF, or FG going for a majority, Labour becoming the major party,or even SF making the it to the top table in some form. In light of this speculation may I be so bold to quote three statesmen, two Brit’s and a Yank to boot.
Firstly, Sir Winston Churchill (its hard to escape his quotes)
“This is not the end, nor the beginning of the end, but merely the end of the beginning”
A wartime context originally, I believe it could also be easily applied to the stage we have now reached in the political upheavals in the Republic. Some might think getting rid of the corrupt government of FF will be that corner finally turned, others could think that a clean sheet now exist and things will gradually return to normal, while those on the left might think, let FG do the dirty work and then we can come to the rescue next time. The reality might be very different because of the second quote-
Harold McMillan “events dear boy, events!”
Ireland has had a rather interesting few years shall we say, with few, if any, guessing the extent of the meltdown. As I have said there is much more to come that is basically being ignored at present, that is at least until FG get a look at the books for starters. However just as the Middle East unrest came out of the blue, other events might also destabilise things, both at home and abroad, the roller coaster is not finished yet. Of course the events can fall into two groups, which bring me to my third quote, from the Yank.
Donald Rumsfeld “…there are Known Unknowns…but there are also Unknown Unknowns.”
We all know that the banking crisis is far from over, but there are pretty good estimates out there of the extent of the problem, its a know unknown so to speak, as is the public deficit, emigration problem etc. in these cases there are a range of scenarios available, although many of these are ugly to say the least, ranging form serious to catastrophic. Which finally leaves the unknown unknowns, but we don’t know about them to speculate, therefore any speculation as to future election is premature to say the least, so stick to the number crunching of this result, but if you want to avoid egg on your face dont speculate part next week!