Enda Kenny: “There will be no complacency from Fine Gael”

The latest Red C poll for the Sunday Business Post shows a little bit of movement in support for a number of parties.  From the iol report

In today’s Red C poll commissioned by the Sunday Business Post, Fine Gael stands on 38%, a rise of three percentage points since last Sunday despite the controversy over the party leader Enda Kenny’s decision not to take part in the first of the leaders debates.

Labour is down two points to 20%. Support for Fianna Fáil has also dropped, down two points to 15%, with Sinn Féin down three to 10% and the Green Party on 3%, up one point.

There has also being a slight bounce in support for Independents and others, up three points to 14%.

A RTÉ report adds

This Red C poll was carried out on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, so it should take fairly full account of the impact of the TV3 Leaders’ Debate on Tuesday night, and of the criticism of Enda Kenny for not taking part in it.

Red C polled more than one thousand voters around the country, and found the number undecided down three points since last week, to 17%.

Meanwhile, what seems to be a separate Red C poll identified a credibility problem with Sinn Féin’s “doughnut approach to policy and economics”.  From a separate iol report

The survey of a 1,000 people was carried out by RED C and is published in today’s News of the World.

Some 71% said they did not trust Gerry Adams to handle the economic crisis, while 67% said they did not trust Sinn Féin.

Update  In the Sunday Business Post, Red C’s Richard Colwell looks at party support across the country.  And political editor Pat Leahy adds

For Sinn Féin, the campaign is going the wrong way – it started strongly, but is fading away. Falling by three points to 10 per cent is evidence of the difficulty for all small parties – making their voices heard in the cacophony of a campaign.

The party will take seats where it has strong candidates and a strong base, but it appears that there will be no surge for Sinn Féin.

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  • Strange poll by the SBP. Sinn Féin are between 11% and 14% in all regions but somehow only manage 10% nationally. Go figure…

  • ItwasSammyMcNally

    Enda,

    the luckiest man in Irish politics – the worst leader – possibly in the history of his party, who has been complicit in the economic debacle and his is still going to be teashop.

  • Nunoftheabove

    ItwasSammyMcNally

    That’s quite an impressive under-achievement given at least the last 4 party leaders that spring to mind…quite a shower when you think about it.

    I don’t think it’s by any means over with yet though, thankfully enough. They’ve played a fairly loose game in under and over-candidating certain seats and may yet regret their strategy….if it is a strategy. Mind you, it wouldn’t come as much of s surprise that they’ve got the maths wrong; doesn’t seem to be an area of strength for the Blueies.

  • ItwasSammyMcNally

    Nunoftheabove,

    “I don’t think it’s by any means over with yet though”

    Get ye to the bookies if you think you are on to something there.

    re. Enda – the one positive in his makeup is that he seems to realise himself how poor he is – the look on his face when Bruton (the elder) was replying to the budget on behalf of FG said it all – however this hardly assists him in his career in politics.

  • aquifer

    If Enda has the wit to promote people smarter than him he could do OK.

    Not mixing it with FF is fair enough. Debating with political delinquents will not add much to your stature.

  • Mark

    ” If Enda has to wit to promote people smarter than him he could do ok ”

    Well he has the whole FG party to choose from and it did work for John Bruton ….

  • I think one of the big unknowns in this election is going to be the transfer voting. Do these opinion polls have any analysis about that?

    It also seems to me that it is practically a dead cert FG will win and have a working majority coalition with Labour in second place.

    The main media interest seems to be the state of the opposition parties after the election.

  • Mick Fealty

    Ulick,

    That puzzled me too.

  • ItwasSammyMcNally

    Seymour Major,

    Perhaps the most known unknown is how many seats SF will get with Paddy Power suspending the betting every couple of days.

    It is more difficult for the ‘establishment’ i.e. FF/FG/Labour/IirishTimes/Indo/Examiner to sell – the SF will wreck everything line – when we are in the current mess – so I suspect SF will get quite a few transfers in unexpected places as people simply tire of hearing the same old lines trotted out once more.

  • Henry94

    The regional figures are averaged from all the RedC polls.

    The problem for everybody is that the undecided are breaking for FG. That’s even more noticeable on the ground than it is in the polls so I would expect them to climb even higher. Over 40% and we are talking FG minority govt. If they hit 42%…they could be a majority government and King Kenny won’t mean Dalglish anymore.

  • “The regional figures are averaged from all the RedC polls.”

    I’m not sure I understand the logic in that Henry. If they carried out polling in the regions why would they publish an average of previous polls and not the actual current results? There was no mention of averages in the paper either btw.

  • Pete Baker

    Update In the Sunday Business Post, Red C’s Richard Colwell looks at party support across the country. And political editor Pat Leahy adds

    For Sinn Féin, the campaign is going the wrong way – it started strongly, but is fading away. Falling by three points to 10 per cent is evidence of the difficulty for all small parties – making their voices heard in the cacophony of a campaign.

    The party will take seats where it has strong candidates and a strong base, but it appears that there will be no surge for Sinn Féin.

  • Mick Fealty

    In Ulick’s (and my own) defence, a glancing look at the graphic in the paper version does not make that distinction clear.

    It’s an interesting observation from Colwell. Gerry’s made a complete hames of Doherty’s good start. But I still reckon that in CNC and in a few other places (possibly even in Dublin Central), SF should get a decent return in this election.

  • Pete Baker

    Mick

    I think you’re refering to this quote from the Richard Colwell article which clarifies how the regional figures were obtained.

    “The picture in Dublin is very different to the rest of Ireland, mainly due to the strong support for the Labour Party. In the four Red C polls conducted in the past three weeks, Labour has secured an average share of the first preference vote in Dublin of 29 per cent, significantly ahead of its share outside Dublin. [added emphasis]

  • Munsterview

    Henry94, : “The problem for everybody is that the undecided are breaking for FG. That’s even more noticeable on the ground than it is in the polls so I would expect them to climb even higher. Over 40% and we are talking FG minority govt. If they hit 42%…they could be a majority government and King Kenny won’t mean Dalglish anymore……”

    Hit the nail on the head!

    In my opinion the Sinn Fein vote was more or less floored and ceilinged before this election. There may have ten to fifteen percent of Sinn Fein’s existing percentage to grow but that was it.

    The big question is where the majority votes of those people with a stake in the country to go ? Some will come SF way, I am amazed at the new demograpic inroads being made by SF. However the ‘haves’ that are leaving FF will join the other ‘haves’ and in the absence of a new centre right party seriously impacting, the natural political philosophy for these people is in Fine Gael.

    In the final week these ‘do not knows’ ( actually they do ! ) will declare with a 3% to 5% nice wee top up for FG. In this respect outside of Dublin, I expect that Sinn Fein and FG will be the greatest beneficiaries of the ‘walk off’ voters.