General Election 2010 – the TUV

Right, moving on to the TUV. 2010 represented the first General election to be fought by Traditional Unionist Voice. How did they do?
A total of 26,300 votes over the 10 seats fought split:

North Antrim
Jim Allister – 7,114 (16.8%)
East Belfast
David Vance – 1,856 (5.4%)
North Down
Mary Kilpatrick – 1,634 (4.9%)
Terry Williams – 1,814 (5.6%)
East Antrim
Samuel Morrison – 1,826 (6.0%)
East Derry / Londonderry
William Ross – 2,572 (7.4%)
Lagan Valley
Keith Harbinson – 3,154 (8.6%)
Mid Ulster
Walter Millar – 2,995 (7.3%)
South Down
Ivor McConnell – 1,506 (3.5%)
South Antrim
Melwyn Lucas – 1,829 (5.4%)

So three real categories:
1) Allister on 17%
2) Ross, Harbinson and Millar – 7-9%
3) The rest – 3.5-6.0%

The real disappointing outcome for the TUV is that a similar performance next year will not come close to a quota outside wherever Allister stands as the Category B base is just too small. Parodoxically a similar performance would seem to eliminate the prospect of a Nationalist First Minister as DUP would need to lose half a dozen or so seats before SF have a prospect of overtaking them. Two losses to the Alliance a possibility, boundary changes might mean another net 1 loss and 1 going to Allister should see Robinson returned…UCUNF next….
P.S. Entirely intuitively I suspect TUV candidates in West Tyrone and FST might do better than average in the Assembly elections.