Paddy Power odds favour Dodds and DUP to retain 30 plus seats

Here’s a nice piece of market making from the entrepreneurial Paddy Power’s odds on a successor to Peter Robinson. Nigel Dodds is 4/5 on, which is probably just about what you might expect for a deputy leader. The boul Paddy says “From a betting point of view it’s beginning to look like a one horse race with eighty percent of the bets placed so far supporting Mr Dodds”. We’ll see if it stays that way when and under what circumstances there is an actual leadership competition.

From a party point of view though, this is good news viz a viz their odds on holding their dominant position in the Assembly next year, given the UCU-NF project is now in tatters, and the TUV dog so utterly failed to bark. You sense several tense shoulders beginning to relax at Dundela Avenue since the small hours of Friday morning.

Here’s the details from the presser:

Next Leader of the DUP

4/5 Nigel Dodds

9/4 Arlene Foster

5/1 Ian Paisley Jnr

8/1 Jeffrey Donaldson

12/1 Sammy Wilson

16/1 Edwin Poots

20/1 Nelson McCausland

20/1 David Simpson

25/1 Robin Newton

Number of DUP seats at the next Assembly Election

3/1 Over 36 seats

5/4 32 to 36 seats

7/4 27 to 31 seats

10/1 22 to 26 seats

12/1 17 to 21 seats

16/1 Under 17 seats

Number of Sinn Fein seats at the next Assembly Election

10/11 Over 30 seats

3/2 28 to 30 seats

6/1 25 to 27 seats

12/1 21 to 24 seats

22/1 20 seats or under

Ends

All prices remain subject to fluctuation.

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  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    Immediately before the election result SF were favourites and these odds may reflect that the view that the depleted TUV may close down before the Assembly election.

  • Itwas SammyMcNally whatdoneit

    …SF were favourites to have the most seats.

  • fitzjameshorse1745

    I am not one to second guess a bookie……but some points.
    If a week is a long time in Politics then a Year is 52 times longer. Anything can happen and probably will.
    For a start will all the Westminster MPs stand, thus bringing in others on their coat tails?
    Events dear Mr Fealty…….events.
    One only has to look back three months into Sluggers archives to see how the DUP were written off. They were in melt down.
    The new improved UUP (with added non sectarianism) was the theme. It didnt happen.
    Or the TUV under Allister would wipe the floor with the DUP. It didnt happen.
    And the SDLP was in permenant freefall. Obituary written. Didnt happen.
    And SF-IRA weighed down by scandal would suffer. Didnt happen.
    And the dissidents…..you see my point here.
    The more things were supposed to change, the more they didnt. Save for a result which happened for a particular set of circumstances.
    The rather odd thing is that the partisans on Slugger are carrying on as if the election never happened. They are still peddling the same stuff they were peddling three months ago.
    While I made a small profit on last weeks results, I had the good sense to wait until Wednesday before making my investment.
    And while I will probably be tempted into one of Mr Powers excellent establishments next year, the shrewd punter would be well advised to wait.
    At this stage its no more than a marketing ploy by the estimable Mr Power.
    Frankly most punters betting NOW on next years Assembly Election wont remember where they put the docket. And Mr Power will already be making a few pounds.