Red C Poll: Labour 7 points up, SF 4 points down

The interesting thing to note from the reports of the Red C poll figures for tomorrow’s Sunday Business Post is that the only statistically significant swings appear to be away from Sinn Féin (down 4 points at 6%) and towards the Irish Labour Party (up 7 points at 24%).  From the RTÉ report

The poll found Fianna Fáil support down one point to 23%, leaving the party in third place just days before the second anniversary of Brian Cowen’s election as Taoiseach.

Labour are up seven points to 24%, putting the party in second place, which is the first time it has ever achieved that position in a Red C poll.

Fine Gael is down two points to 33%, but maintain a commanding lead as most popular party.

The Green Party is up one point to 6%, while Sinn Féin dropped four points to 6% support.

Adds It’s worth noting Richard Colwell’s comment on this

However, the data does not suggest that Sinn Féin voters have simply moved to Labour.

Some have, but others have moved elsewhere; it is perhaps simply this fluidity among the disenfranchised electorate that is also Labour’s gain.

For Sinn Féin, this represents a fall in support of 4 per cent, following several consecutive months when the party had seen its support gradually improve. It is difficult to explain this loss without more information, but perhaps it is because the party has been seen canvassing heavily in the election in the North and taken its eye off the ball in the Republic.

Alternatively, Sinn Féin may well have suffered in the eyes of voters due to renewed activity by dissident republicans in the North.

Possibly…

, , , ,

  • Mark McGregor

    Margin or error +/- 3% so SF go from

    7-13%

    to

    3-9%

  • Mrazik

    Seems like Sinn Fein’s a micro-group in the South.

  • old school

    A micro group in the south with no strategy.

  • PaddyReilly

    In 2007 there were two elections in Ireland, an Assembly one in the North and a General Election in the South. It is interesting to put the votes together, and see what sort of results would have occurred in a United Ireland.

    Fianna Fáil 859,300
    Fine Gael 563,900
    Sinn Féin 323,083
    Labour 208,600
    DUP 207,721
    SDLP 105,162
    UUP 103,145
    Green 101,736
    Prog Dem 56,396
    Alliance 36,139

    Sinn Féin is the third most popular party in the country, more than half as large again as the Labour Party.

    From this we can see just how much Unionism relies on false presentation. The alleged microgroup received more 1st preferences than all the Unionist parties put together!

  • Mrazik

    Are you an estate agent?

  • Re-engaged

    I think this post proves the point – no strategy and no sense of reality – Sinn Fien is truely a wasted vote on Thursday and not just becuse of their refusal to enter Westminster.

    Paddy unless we have all missed something major in the wake of ‘Bigotgate’ what exactly is the point of the abover – it is 2 years ago – which might as well be a world ago – real issues are on the table and Sinn Fiens wild republican, left wing Castro politics has left the people in the RoI saying – what were we thinking – eventually and hopefully sooner rather than later here in NI they will wake up to the same thing.

  • Michaelhenry

    SINN FEIN gets votes in IRELANDS 32 counties, no other party can equal that.

  • PaddyReilly

    I look forward to collating Thursday’s results with the next election in the Republic and seeing if the position has changed. I somehow doubt that it will- at least not in the direction you want it to- but elections are notoriously harder to purchase than opinion polls.

  • Re-engaged

    Not if the old ‘vote early vote often’ addage so effectively used in parts of NI are to be believed – again I’m sure the drop in postal vote applications has nothing to do with the overdue crack down on electoral fraud here in the North

  • bk

    Very Significant fall for Sinn Fein, considering many of their Southern SF supporters don’t/can’t read the newspapers, or watch the news.

  • Garza

    SF are going backwards in the South, probably because of the failed leadership of GA and the banning of any form of debate on policies within the party. Its do as Gerry and Marty say or else. Not a great way to run a party. But SF will duck their head the sand as per usual.

    SF only do well up here because of the constitutional question, not their policies. If there was a UI, SF would gradually fade away – I guess there is a + for a United Ireland after all lol.

    To be honest I can’t understand why SF want a UI, Stormont will be there only chance of power ever.

  • Ulick

    The margin of error on a telephone poll these days is a lot more than 3% when you consider the amount of people under 35 renting in Dublin, Wexford, Cork, Waterford etc… This poll needs corroboration.

  • dotski

    Paddy, even if you combine those totals, you’re dead wrong when you say that “Sinn Féin is the third most popular party in the country, more than half as large again as the Labour Party”, as you’re using out of date data (hard to beleive a SF supporter could be living in the past, I know…..).

    As this poll shows, SF are collapsing in popular support – hardly a week passes by without a thread on politics.ie about another SF councillor leaving the party – it’s in disarray, and if they don’t ditch Adams soon, they’ll go the way of the original stickies.

  • medillen

    I agree Ulick, posters on politics.ie are also questioning this poll but even so it adds to the anti-Sinn Fein threads that are currently running on slugger. Impact- zero, political anoracks on this site do not change elections – prediction.

  • T.S

    Sunday Business Post must be right,just like Paddy Joe Rice who said the Brendan Hughes book was the whole truth and nothing but the truth…….6 months before it was published.
    As we have read the book. we will wait on the results then make our mind up.

  • slug

    I think their usual support is about 8.Sometimes it gets as high as 10 sometimes it drops down to 6. Its unusual for it to go from 10 to 6 in one month but I don’t think its possible to read anything much into one poll – consistent with them flatlining but they should still pick up a couple of seats in the south next time

  • lover not a fighter

    Gerry Adams go now before you completely destroy Sinn Féin in the South and longer term in the North.

  • Alias

    It does look like the arse has well-and-truly fallen out of their “republican strategy” of seeking political power in Ireland as well as Northern Ireland. There was a time when the oft-touted phrase “republican strategy” was as common as Gerry’s helicopter rides but now they don’t even mention it. Still, if they progress at the projected rate of adding one new TD every election, they should manage an overall majority before the 200 anniversary of 1916. All’s well that ends well.

  • Alias

    Actually, it would be around the 400th anniversary of 1916. So there’s still hope for that “republican strategy”.

  • old school

    Just as well Gerry doesn’t read Sunday papers.

  • Mick Fealty

    The Greens?

  • aquifer

    So when it comes to a real crisis of capitalism, that revolutionary parties are not to be trusted.

    I’ll remember that one.

  • Greenflag

    All this poll tells us is that the Irish people have little confidence in either a) the Government or b) any of the political parties .

    The SF percentage is meaningless given present conditions . The voting electorate are still looking at the politicians and still wondering how they ALL could have been ‘taken’ by the Wall St gangsters and our own local brand . The electorate is not comforted by the fact that both the UK and USA and several other countries were also ‘taken’ by the same sociopathic financial criminals .

    SF’s support percentage in the republic will not make much difference if any to their electoral support in NI . As we all know politics in NI is based on very different premises .

  • Anonymous

    A single data point doesn’t make a trend. SF have been at approximately 7-8% for years and years. That’s still inisde the range here, and my guess is that the next poll will nudge up slightly (probably after an alright Northern campaign) and they’ll still be 7-8%. The bottom might have fell out, or there might be a drop to a new pleateu, but it’s a bit early to say.

    The plateau in itself is bad in any case. There is no need to sensationalise anything.

  • old school

    The poll tells us Greenflag, that Labour, Socialists and Independents are gaining and SF is slipping.
    We were told if the armed struggle was dropped they’d soar to the political tops.
    Doh!

  • GavBelfast

    You’ve posted that one before, haven’t you Paddy?

  • Alias

    Greenflag, the poll shows that voters are realigning rather than non-aligning, so it rather obviously doesn’t show what you claim it shows, i.e. a loss of confidence in all political parties. Indeed, it shows an increase in confidence by voters in some political parties.

    It has long been apparent that a Lab/GF coalition would form the next government, and this poll simply confirms that drift. It has also long been apparent that the Shinners are an irrelevance in Irish politics, and this is again confirmed.

  • redhugh78

    Irrelevant? you wish Alias, they are the largest party in the north and the 3rd largest in the country.

  • Lionel Hutz

    Not for long by the sounds of things. In fact a labour sdlp coalition would be the biggest. How would that sit with Sinn Fein

  • Alias

    Red, you are obfuscating Irish politics with Northern Irish politics. They are an irrelevant fringe party in Ireland. The fact that they are the second largest party in Northern Ireland and a complete non-entity in Ireland highlights the cultural and political gulf between the two states.

  • Pete Baker

    Adds It’s worth noting Richard Colwell’s comment on this

    However, the data does not suggest that Sinn Féin voters have simply moved to Labour.

    Some have, but others have moved elsewhere; it is perhaps simply this fluidity among the disenfranchised electorate that is also Labour’s gain.

    For Sinn Féin, this represents a fall in support of 4 per cent, following several consecutive months when the party had seen its support gradually improve. It is difficult to explain this loss without more information, but perhaps it is because the party has been seen canvassing heavily in the election in the North and taken its eye off the ball in the Republic.

    Alternatively, Sinn Féin may well have suffered in the eyes of voters due to renewed activity by dissident republicans in the North.

    Possibly…

  • TheHorse

    Sinn Fein have lost the support of their grassroots they can no longer summon scores of election workers at any time, the same grassroots who were out at a moments notice from the very areas they are canvassing. Its the same people who are electioneering that are not in touch with the locals and have no respect from the youth. Most people wouldn’t even bother registering to vote, they do so just because canvassers go to their door and do it all for them. Then its the annoyance of actually going to vote, even having the time. Unless people are actually collected from their homes and brought to the polling station they wouldn’t bother. Why is this, is it because people think its all over and they’ve better things to do or because they have lost respect for certain people.

  • Alias

    Interesting post, TheHorse. It sounds like the only reason they get any votes then is because they literally scrape them out of the bottom of the barrel. That labour-intensive source of their support would support Richard Colwell’s suspicion that the fall in support is due to a transfer of that labour to the election effort in Northern Ireland. Personally, I have a hard job imagining how voters could be that influenced by the attention of party workers such that the support is directly related to it but it must be there to some extent. It’s certainly no way to build a mainstream party but I guess it gives them a fringe presence in Irish politics from which to make extravagant claims about republican strategies and that’s probably all they need for now to address the concerns of their supporters in Northern Ireland as they proceed with the normalisation policy.

  • TheHorse

    I wouldn’t call decent honest people the bottom of the barrel, but on your point of transfer of labour I would agree that to be the case. The drop in the south seems to be directed at Sinn Fein as a whole whereas in the North the situation is different in that it would be directed at individuals within Sinn Fein. Dont throw out the whole barrel because of a few bad apples.

  • PaddyReilly

    Something very similar. And I intend to keep trotting these figures out for as long Sluggerites keep trotting their ‘insignificant SF vote’ rubbish.