Odds on Gerry

Horseman contends that Gerry Adams probably has shorter odds than any other candidate in the western world.  I thought that was a pretty tall order, but turns out, he might be right.  Gerry actually has better odds than Gordon Brown of getting back to parliament, and is no more likely than David Cameron to lose his seat.

The question of what benefit West Belfast has derived from making Gerry one of the UK’s safest MPs, is of course one we could debate for hours.

  • fitzjameshorse1745

    Mr Shilliday
    We could and probably will debate it for hours.
    But alas the only people whose opinion REALLY counts are the electorate in West Belfast.

  • Argosjohn

    It does raise interesting questions though. Though civilised people complain that they only see their MPs at election time, many, no doubt, fight the quiet fight for their constituents. West Belfast, meanwhile, elects a self obsessed man who delivers nothing but stale air.

  • Leveller on the Liffey

    @ Argosjohn

    It seems the voters of West Belfast know more than you do then.

    Why else would they re-elect such a “self-obsessed man who delivers nothing but stale air”?

    Or do you know better than them?

  • Bill Manwaring

    I am seeing a combination of issues, lack of trust in other candidates (why would the majority of west Belfast support me for instance), a sense of ‘duty’ to Sinn Fein and, more and more, voter apathy that nothing is going to change.

    There were over 19,000 registered voters who, for whatever, reason, chose not to use their vote in west Belfast in 2005, but even if all of them had voted against Gerry, he would still be MP.

  • Gerry Adams is a racing certainty to retain his seat. I find such blind, deaf and dumb acceptance of him depressing, but denying it is foolish.

  • Drumlin Rock

    They have it wrong, Bill your going to win, I just know it 🙂

  • slug


    I just want to say I admire your energy enthusiasm and sincerity. I was glad to see you campaigning in areas that don’t vote unionist. I wish you all the best for the election and hope you have made an impact..

  • dwatch

    I agree with Drumlin Rock, how can you fail to win with Lord Trimble canvassing in West Belfast for you?

  • salem

    Good on you Bill for representing the small protestant community in West Belfast – but we all know that Gerrys vote will remain constant and i have little doubt that there will be any decrease in his vote even given the recent news stories about him.

  • argosjohn

    Adams, Michael Lowery, the NAB lady in Mayo (Coper Flynn, get the hyphenated name) and Hitler all show us the failings of democracy. Mo matter how flawed the ledigree, the sheep will vote for them.

    I always find it amusing PIRA supporters lauding democracy. This is, after all, an outfit that gunned down elected officials in cold blood.

    Adams, as he showed on the TV “debate” in the south has nothing but stale air to spout. He is an economic illiterate (and much worse too).
    Could you imagine him up against Nick Clegg? Only as an amusing diversion. He is the piper of the one tune, a tune that has paid handsome dividends for him.

  • abucs

    Sure he’d run rings around Clegg on the issues facing west Belfast. :o)

  • medillen

    Adams had a bad interview prior to the last General Election in the south, in an election were Sinn Fein hoped to better. But get over it, everyone has. One bad interview a few years does not compare with a series od bad interviews by some the candidates in this current campaign.

  • fitzjameshorse1745

    Actually its the Overclass (journos, academics, bloggers)who resent Gerry Adams and the people in West Belfast who elect him.
    Its the Overclass who dont like Democracy.