Destiny awaits

Fianna Fáil’s smoking dope but not inhaling, sorry, I mean gaining an MLA but not really, has been at the back of my mind all day. In fact, it would have been at the front of my mind were it not for the fact that I had to write something on the Murphy Report.

I don’t think the move is insignificant. As I have written elsewhere, one might argue (and I do) that the move Northward post-settlement shows that Northern republicanism is now as hollow as its Southern compatriot. However, that’s not really what I want to talk about here. Instead, I would like to float the simple proposition that it shows Fianna Fáil is not in as bad a shape as people think – electorally speaking.

Undoubtedly, were there a general election today the Southern public would give the Republican Party the heave-ho. Support for the party is at an all time low. Indeed, writing in Irish Left Review, WorldByStorm notes that Fianna Fáil is trailing Fine Gael by thirteen points.

WorldByStorm goes on to say, with I suspect, no small amount of hope:

I was initially dubious about how much damage had been inflicted on Fianna Fáil, but the consistency of these figures and the fact they continue to decline reinforces a conclusion that this is an historic rupture in the Irish polity.

He could be right, but I’m not so sure myself. The fact that the party is, even at this dire time, able to continue expanding into territories new indicates that it is simply not possible for Fianna Fáil to be totally wiped-out. There will always be a core Fianna Fáil vote in Ireland, no matter how severely reduced it might be come the next round of polling.

Still, the transformation of Fianna Fáil from the natural party of government (albeit a party that became the natural party of government by usurping Cumann na nGaedhael) into a kind of rump party for conservative aboriginals would be a rather sorry end for the political machine that has dominate Irish life since the days of De Valera.

, ,

  • sunny south east

    Fianna fail brought it on themselves with the constant neverending corruption that seems to be a factor of fianna fail. Also the ff urban working class are gone people are more questioning of everything the gaa the katholic khurch and Fianna fail the trinity that dominated has fallen. The combined FF/FG vote is 50%-60% in my home town Waterford there is only one FF councillor he got in at the last count. Finally instead of all this civil war bullshit we may have a left right divide in politics. To me FF and FG are practically the same now.

  • percy

    focusing on da Nort, away from the economy and church woes,
    might be a cute way to distract the voters!

    Hold that in yer lungs as long as possible
    bertie ya oul rascal 😉

  • rapunsel

    I don’t know where Gerry McHugh is coming from. he never struck me as FF. Not that I’m that clear over what FF stand for anyway

    I’m not convinced that there is great potential for FF in the north. I may be more cynical than most but I regard most of the FF people as unprincipled and corrupt and look at the state of the economy they presided over. It’ll be easy for SF to throw the corrupt accusation at FF in the North and FF won’t be able to effectivelt retaliate I was just watching a show on RTE there about urban development and the total lack of foresight and planning by FF that has resulted in crap overpriced houses in dormitory towns with no facilities and no future proofing in terms of energy consumption and that’s only one example of incompetence.

  • Rat joins sinking ship?

  • aquifer

    FF are political chameleons so could be hard to squash fatally. They regard it as their job to be in government, and only do enough policy to get by. This shows in the mess they make of things, but sure arn’t they our lads, part of our national culture of revolution and freedom, looting the spoils of victory from the anglo aristocracy long gone but never mind lets liberate the national territory for tick tack housing and a wad of tax free euros in the back pocket courtesy of the Bundesbank. They do have the identity thing off though, signing people up from an early age and keeping them on the membership role until death do us part. And when the taxpayers have paid and paid and are sick of them they will change colour again. A little more red with that green lads?

  • Dave

    In other news: Ireland ceased to be a sovereign state today, as did the UK – not that you would have noticed from the euro-puppets in the media. The biggest day in our ‘shared’ history is simply ignored because our new masters wish us to ignore it.

    Today is the day that the Lisbon Treaty comes into effect. That is the beginning of end of both states, so it really doesn’t matter whether or not FF is on the wane as a party of government when there is no longer a sovereign state to govern.

  • Dave

    And by the way, Jason, you might want to take a look at how those “aboriginals” fared without the protection of a nation-state and a right to national self-determination. In case that is too much trouble for you, you can take a look at how the Irish fared without that right.

  • Jason Walsh

    truth seeker, piss off. I’ve been a journalist for years and I am not out of work. How’s this for truth: I’ve only been “self publishing”, as you put it, since October 8. I posted those links in direct response to Dave saying I should pay more attention to the EU/Lisbon. I couldn’t give a damn what you think either way.

  • Carson’s Cat

    “I don’t think the move is insignificant.”

    The move is utterly insignificant – whatever moves FF may want to play in the future towards operating in Northern Ireland this is not part of it.

    McHugh applied to join FF – they received an application from some bloke in Fermanagh and they accepted him. Only later did they realise that he happened also to be an Assembly Member. That caused some embarrassment to FF hence we have the situation where he is an MLA who belongs to FF rather than an FF MLA (if you see the difference).

    I can’t imagine that FF would have wanted their first foray into elected politics in NI to be someone like Gerry McHugh. Its embarrassing for FF, amusing for the rest of us and a non-story to everyone.

  • sunny south east

    FF trump cardover FG has been it is nationalistic it may gain in the north but elsewhere in the free state it has lost its urban vote. The farmer vote is getting smaller. Rural ireland has being mainly FF/FG but expect labour and other parties to gain in the counties surrounding Dublin. Once it loses these areas where can it go a rump will remain spouting vague cliches to a public increasingly seeing the Fianna Fail brand as past its sell by date. The question will arise in Fianna Fail is will they join FG the enemy in the minds of the party member. But who they have most in common with. Or stay on the sidelines for a longer than expected time lacking any influence this will happpen after the general election. Political drama ahead folks sit down and watch it unfold.