Plaid gather at Llandudno

Plaid’s conference this year is in the Conwy resort of Llandudno. Ron Davies thinks that the 21st century could be Plaid’s time – a potential recruit according to Simon.
I wasn’t a great Ieuan Wyn fan when he replaced Dafydd Wigley as party leader – I didn’t think he listened well. However since becoming Deputy First Minister he’s grown immensely in my eyes. Here’s his theory and here’s the practice – Think Different. Think Plaid. What do you think of the Video?
Many of us hoped for a breakthrough in the Euros – it didn’t quite happen as Labour kept a grip on the Valleys and the Tories sneaked through. However a more detailed analyis reveals that Plaid won the following seats:
Arfon, Dwyfor Meirionydd, Ynys Môn, Aberconwy, Llanelli, Ceredigion and Carmarthen East and Dinefwr. (A slight qualification as Aberconwy effected by boundary changes next time). All are Plaid seats in the National Assembly.
What of General Election prospects?
Dwyfor Meirionydd and Carmarthen East in the bag. Arfon a notional Labour seat but with no Labour candidate in place yet and Ladbrokes quoting 1/10 on Plaid then Arfon seems safe also.
Four other targets therefore. One by one:
Ceredigion – this is going to be a real scrap.
A shock Lib Dem gain last time with a majority of 219. Plaid have been making progress since – now hold 20 of the 43 council seats. The Lib Dems approach last time was to target students (There are two universities, Aberystwyth and Lampeter, in the constituency) with a promise of aboloshing University fees and the adoption of the more “modern” (hmm) Lib Dem electioneering methods. Penri James is the Plaid candidate challenging Mark Williams MP. Labrokes quote Plaid at 8/11 with Lib Dems evens,
Llanelli – an interesting trend is the seemingly inverse realtionship between the decline of Welsh as the lingua franca in much of Eastern Carmarthenshire and the advance of Plaid Cymru. The last local elections here showed an astonishing Plaid advance gaining 10 councillors whilst Labour lost 11. Ladbrokes still favour Labour’s Nia Griffiths to Plaid’s Dr Myfanwy Davies but the odds are tightening – latest – Lab 2/5, PC 7/4.
Aberconwy – a fascinating battle – whilst nominally a Labour seat the MP, Beti Williams, is retiring and coupled with an undoubted decline in Labour’s popularity generally the bookie’s odds of Tories 2/7,
PC 7/2 indicate a two horse race with Guto Bebb the favourite over Plaid’s Phil Edwards. Guto an ex-chair of Caernarfon Plaid Cymru and grandson of one of Plaid Cymru’s founders Ambrose Bebb..ah the irony…
Finally Ynys Môn – there are two types of people in the world:
i) Those who pretend to understand the politics of the island and
ii) those who don’t even pretend.
I’m in category i)…..
The seat has been held by each of the four main parties since the war. That’s a strange enough fact but combined with the fact that no incumbent has lost since 1951 (Lloyd George’s daughter, Megan, lost to Cledwyn Hughes)
it becomes a pretty peculiar place. Plaid’s Dylan Rees favourite at 1/3 with Labour’s Albert Owen MP at 9/4. A strong independent candidate, ex Tory, Peter Rogers, willl poll well and destroy any potential Tory challenge but could also hurt Plaid. I won’t be betting.
Here’s the links to the UK Polling Reports on each seat:
Ynys Mon, Ceredigion, Aberconwy and Llanelli.