RTE Report that the Department of Health estimate that 1 million Irish people will contract Swine Flu this autumn and winter, with a current estimated mortality rate of 1 per 200 cases this may mean 5,000 fewer Irish people come next spring. While the mortality rate is disputed, partially on the basis that many infected patients will never see a doctor – one wonders if unreported cases also figure in the Department of Health estimate.
The Department of Health has ordered 8 million doses of the Swine Flu vaccine, which may not now be available until the end of the year. Ireland has a population of approxiametly 4.5 million, this is less than two doses per person of a vaccine that may have to be adminstered three times per adult and four per child. Wales, with a population of 2.9 million citizens has ordered 6 million doses of the vaccine.
Should we be planning and developing alternatives now in order to reduce the impact of any school, creche and workplace closures?