RTE Report that the Department of Health estimate that 1 million Irish people will contract Swine Flu this autumn and winter, with a current estimated mortality rate of 1 per 200 cases this may mean 5,000 fewer Irish people come next spring. While the mortality rate is disputed, partially on the basis that many infected patients will never see a doctor – one wonders if unreported cases also figure in the Department of Health estimate.
The Department of Health has ordered 8 million doses of the Swine Flu vaccine, which may not now be available until the end of the year. Ireland has a population of approxiametly 4.5 million, this is less than two doses per person of a vaccine that may have to be adminstered three times per adult and four per child. Wales, with a population of 2.9 million citizens has ordered 6 million doses of the vaccine.
Should we be planning and developing alternatives now in order to reduce the impact of any school, creche and workplace closures?
No bio, some books worth reading – The Rational Optimist: How Prosperity Evolves – Matt Ridley .
Crisis Economics: A Crash Course in the Future of Finance -Nouriel Roubini, Stephen Mihm