George Lee a shoe-in in Dublin South by-election

Yesterdays Sindo reports RTE’s ex-economics editor is polling 49% of first preferences with 21% undecided, a whopping 37 point led over nearest rival Labour’s Senator Alex White. The constituency also features Elizabeth Davidson whose husband ran for the UUP in the 1998 Northern Ireland forum elections. While she is unlikely to win, she has opened up a 5 point lead (on 6%) over Sinn Fein’s Shaun Tracey (on 1%). Fianna Fáil are facing wipe out in both by-election constituencies, with Bertie’s brother Maurice looking unlikely to win the Dublin Central seat vacated on Tony Gregory’s death.

Update : As Horseman correctly points out in the comments Andrew Davison stood for the UUP in Foyle in the 1996 forum elections.

http://www.ark.ac.uk/elections/96foy.htm

  • Greenflag

    mack ,

    Is’nt this somewhat premature ? The election will not be until 2012 at the latest ? George Lee may be an estimable chap but he’s no water walker either 😉

  • Mack

    Greenflag – I suspect I’m missing a reference that’s just flown over my head, but isn’t the election on June 5?

  • Why?

    I think the inclusion of the following words is necessary:

    “George Lee a shoe-in in [b]forthcoming[/b] Dublin South [b]by-election[/b]

  • Mack

    Apoligies, Why? & Greenflag – my proximity to the constituency blinded me to this election’s, em, lesser significance to those further removed.

  • Why?

    It’s still a significant election!.. regardless of your myopia 😉

    That Lee is a bit slimey all the same, there’s simply no way that his political allegiances could not have swayed his reporting of the recent events in his particular field of expertise. Who’s next? Dobbo? Miriam? Hobbsy?!

  • Mack

    Eddie Hobbs recently resigned from a government Consumer quango (National Consumer Agency ) after calling for Celia Larkin to resign over a loan she got from Michael Fingleton fast-tracked a loan from Irish Nationwide. The loan was itself used to repay another (secret) loan from Bertie’s constituency organisation. When Celia refused, Eddie resigned.

    http://www.independent.ie/national-news/hobbs-quits-post-over-celias-euro40000-loan-1731213.html

    If George Lee wins the seat, I guess you never know what could happen.

  • Greenflag

    Those of us on the Northside don’t care who’s elected in Stillorgan for FG 😉

    The important election will be in 2012 by which time George if elected will have had ample time to taste the realities of the Dail and reconsider his change of vocation 😉

  • I’m not surprised by this. If Dublin South in current circumstances isn’t a shoe-in for FG in a by-election, they might as well fold their tents permanently.

    The commanding FG poll lead is more surprising – I’m not sure I quite believe it given just how limited to Drumcondra the FG base in the constituency has been and lower-working class Dublin’s long-standing resistance to FG. I would have instinctively have tipped either Labour or the Gregory-linked independent on a sympathy vote. But if it is true, FF better start praying hard now before annihilation in 2012.

  • Sorry, last para refers to the Dublin Central by-election on the same day.

  • Mack

    I was wondering Sammy! –

    ” lower-working class Dublin’s long-standing resistance to FG.”

    http://www.amazon.co.uk/South-Dublin-How-Like-Euro/dp/1844881644/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1242064031&sr=8-1

  • Mack,

    The constituency also features Elizabeth Davidson whose husband ran for the UUP in the 1998 Northern Ireland forum elections …

    In fact, the Forum elections were in 1996, not 1998 – that was the first election to the current Assembly.

    Andrew Davidson stood in 1996 for the UUP in Foyle, but didn’t come within an asses roar of a seat.

    He reappeared in the 2001 Westminster election in the same constituency, where he got less than 7% of the vote. I guess he must have then seen the writing on the wall, as he disappeared from visible politics. Judging by this story, he may have moved to Dublin with his wife (whose politics, it must be said, are preferrable to his!)