Fianna Fail 26%, Fine Gael 33%

As Brian notes the tables may be turning in Scotland, the climate is definately changing in the Republic if the latest Red C poll for the Sunday Business Post is anything to go by. It’s the scale of the swings that strike you first. As Pat Leahy notes: “Fianna Fáil support has plunged by 10 percentage points since late September”. That’s one hell of a big dipper ride. And the winners: Labour and Fine Gael are up by 6% and 5% respectively.

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  • Quagmire

    The state media in the 26 counties is a joke. Whether it be Q&A;, Prime Time, The week in Politics etc.. they only ever have FF or FG, with a hint of Labour, Deputies on their shows. Indeed you would think that there were only two competing parties participating in southern politics. RTE should be ashamed of itself as a public broadcaster. When was the last time they had a SF deputy on one of their shows? They afford FF and FG too much air time and as such give these two parties an unfair advantage over the others. There are more parties to choose from than just FF (tweedle dum) or FG,(tweedle dummer). I mean SF was the (ONLY) party in the Dail to back a no vote in the recent Lisbon Treaty Referendum. They, if any party, have their fingers on the pulse of the nation. Someone should remind RTE that it is now the year 2008 and that the civil war is over.

  • RepublicanStones

    Jesus wept, anybody but the Blueshirts !

  • Mick Fealty

    Just been back through the archives of QandA to June. Only Green is Minister Eamon Ryan. Minister Mary Harney the only PD. Richard Boyd Barrett gets look in just after the Referendum; Mary Lou just before. Nothing since.

    As a footnote, there were two Nordies in that time: Nell McCafferty and Steven King.

    Whether those editorial decisions are valid or not, I still think it’s the relative silence from the Dail deputies that’s hurting them most.

  • Well the Provos built their profile in the south on the back of being on the TV every night for over a decade during the peace process/decomissioning thing (which was the real reason decommisioning took so long), and the southern system is incredibly influenced by media profile. But then again, Adams fluffed his big media appearance. They lost what seems to have been a lot of their most active people on the ground in Dulin. Large numbers of their more experienced councillors have resigned for various reasons. And frankly their TDs have been an absolute joke, making little of the opportunities afforded to them. So perhaps they ought to look at themselves too, instead of just blaming the media, and we ought to be careful of accepting that explanation.

  • Paddy Matthews

    And the winners: Labour and Fine Gael are up by 5% and 6% respectively.

    Other way round – FG up 5 (28 to 33), Labour up 6 (9 to 15).

  • LURIG

    The funniest part of all this is that Sinn Fein & Gerry Adams were derided by the Southern media for having NO REAL grasp of economics. Given the events of the last 2 months how ironic is that? What?? Like Fianna Fail had a grasp of economics? A corpulant right wing big business party whose financial policy and questionable practices over the last decade have nearly bankrupted the country and which has f**ked up the housing and banking systems? HA! HA! HA! Adams basically told the truth when he appeared on Questions & Answers prior to the Southern election i.e. that wealth needed to be distributed more equally, big business needed to be taxed more fairly, the public were paying over the odds for inflated house prices and that the ordinary Joe Soap who worked 8 – 10 hours a day, 5 days a week was the mainstay of the Celtic Tiger. The man and woman who left the house in the dark at 6.00 in the morning, seen their kids sleeping before they left for an hour and half commute to work AND who was lucky to get home just before they went to bed. It was a big false economy and the same people who were sh*t on by Fianna Fail are the same ones who are expected to make the sacrifices so the same Gordon Gekko’s can regain their immoral place once again. The Southern electorate should consign these cretins to political obscurity like the British public did with the Tories. THAT is the real challenge for people in the Republic, will they finally see Fianna Fail for what they are?

  • Mick

    Thanks Paddy. Late night aberration.

    Lurig,

    The real deficit for all the opposition parties is that there is no discernible argument about what the government is doing wrong other than hammering pensioners. FG want public service cuts which may well have the effect of exaggerating the down turn. And Labour appears to focusing on micro issues (probably to decent short term effect) without hinting at road map of how to get out of the current mess.

    Adams’ problem on the economy was less to do with the specifics of his party’s policy, than the fact that he openly admitted he was boning up on economics at night. SF lack a coherent platform on anything that matters in the southern state.

    I suspect there is plenty of burn to come yet, but oppositions need to do more than just step in and clear up the mess to get themselves elected. They need to inspire confidence, give the impression they would make competent custodians of the state.. I see no evidence of that in these figures, yet.

  • RepublicanStones

    ‘ They need to inspire confidence, give the impression they would make competent custodians of the state.. I see no evidence of that in these figures, yet.’

    Which is why Enda Kenny’s gracious 5% paycut offer was seen for the bullshit gimmick it was, sept maybe by a few gullible souls which may help explain the slight upturn for the Blueshirts.

  • Mick,

    … there were two Nordies in that time: Nell McCafferty and Steven King

    I don’t think Steven King is a ‘nordie’. He’s from Liverpool, and has close family connections in County Tipperary. Sure, he has worked for Trimble, etc, but he’s more a ‘adoptee’ than a ‘nordie’.

  • An Lochlannach

    It’s very likely that Fianna Fáil will get a kicking in the local and euro elections but I wouldn’t be suprised to see them bounce back. Disastrous ratings might actually shore up the coalition and stop the smaller parties and independents from jumping ship. If I were a Green TD I know that I wouldn’t fancy facing the electorate just right now.

    One thing is true: as Fine Gael-led coalitions recede further into the collective memory they may become a more attractive option. Younger voters, God help them, may actually believe that Labour & FG would have done something differently.

  • George

    FF have well and truly dropped the ball here and it will be a long road back for them. Removing the medical card but keeping the PRSI ceiling for high earners was madness.

    Getting on the wrong side of the GAA and IRFU by pulling the plugs on supporting teachers who trained children outside of school hours was just as crazy.

    The levy on all was a lazy, blunt instrument. The failure to tackle the spectre of pre-determined public service pensions was cowardice of the highest order.

    The budget was lacking in creativity, harsh on the vulnerable and a sop to the banks and developers.

    People were prepared to take the hit, but for society as a whole not to protect those who benefited most in the last decade.

    I’m not surprised Labour are doing so well. If FF are to be replaced, then a strong Labour will be seen by many as necessary to curtail the more conservative excesses (bootcamps for teenagers etc) of the “Blueshirts”.

    As for SF and its lack of clarity on economic issues, it wasn’t just Adams last year. The whole party flip-flopped on whether to raise taxes throughout that campaign.

    Then they return “all for the people” for Lisbon before voting yes to the recent bank bail-out while Labour vote no.

    Gilmore has wiped the floor with them in the last six months.

    Sinn Féin are practising Groucho Marx politics: These are our principles if you don’t like them we have others.

  • Mick Fealty

    AL,

    Greens have been everyone’s favourite target since day one, possibly (and I offer this tentatively) because Bertie had the Opposition convinced that Fianna Fail are invincible.

    But the Greens are not and have not been the weakest link. Their mission in government is not to deliver on all the issues but a tightly targeted bundle of issues.

    Ironically any tightening of consumption is likely to play well with their core constituency, even as the party’s promises on Education come under increasingly critical scrutiny.

    In summation: You don’t ‘get’ the Greens, if you don’t ‘get’ FF first.

  • ronan

    why do conversations here about 26 co politics ALWAYS come back to SF.

    In 26 co terms they are a microparty, not relevent and laughed at.

  • Mick Fealty

    Ronan, with respect, this one hasn’t.

  • sammaguire

    “Fianna Fail 26%, Fine Gael 33%”

    Hmm….I can remember posting a comment on an Opinion Poll before the last election that put FG only 3% behind FF. Needless to say the actual results were the usual FF 41% Blueshirts 27%. No sane person would put money on FG to be the largest party after the next General Election.

    FF need a good kick up the *rse for not marketing themselves properly re the elderly who are probably treated better here than in any other country/statelet in Europe thanks to FF(free passports, free driving licences, free TV licence, generous telephone and gas/electricity allowances, free public transport, higher than average pensions, extremely generous income tax allowances and of course the now means tested Medical Card etc).

    The Medical Card thing was political suicide and Lenihan should have known better. On the other hand the protests were mainly party politically motivated…since when is Enda Kenny the people’s champion?? Laughing to myself at the thought of Kenny rabble rousing the masses with a clenched fist!

    Incidently anyone remember how much of a rise that good socialist Proinsias de Rossa gave the OAPs during his stint as minister? Yes Proinsias I know you had to balance the books and be prudent with the State’s finances…

  • TE

    What’s this a Sinn Féin meeting where they can vent their anger at being irrelevant in the political scene in Ireland??!! Giving out about Fine Gael.. Such a joke! The opposition have done what an opposition should so…. OPPOSE.. Offering alternative policy is an added bonus.. They’ve done a good Job.. and with the help of God we’ll see them in Government soon.. FF out.. and of course FG is different to FF in it’s policy. FG, i’m pretty sure would not attack the weak in society..

  • LURIG

    Correct there TE. Fine Gael would be so preoccupied constantly attacking Northern Nationalists and buttering up to the DUP that they wouldn’t have the time to have a go at pensioners and students. Fianna Gael and the defunct PD’s are nauseating to many of us on this island also.

  • LURIG

    Sorry, Fine Gael that should read.

  • sammaguire

    “The funniest part of all this is that Sinn Fein & Gerry Adams were derided by the Southern media for having NO REAL grasp of economics. Given the events of the last 2 months how ironic is that? What?? Like Fianna Fail had a grasp of economics?”

    Posted by LURIG on Oct 27, 2008 @ 12:35 AM

    Given “the events of the last 2 months” (FF caused the credit crunch apparently) weren’t we lucky Sinn Fein weren’t in power last year when the nurses (average salary 60k) put in a 14% pay claim and Adams had absolutely no problem supporting it… nurses being so nice and all that…great grasp of economics.