Were you up for Glasgow East?

Being the amateur sophologist/political animal/person worthy of wife’s curious look when explaining why you are staying up/sad sack (*delete as appropriate) that I am I’ll be staying up for the Glasgow East result so will post it here (and maybe some interpretation depending on how tired I am). SNP wins by 365 votes (and I’m going to bed)Turnout is estimated to be 46% down 2% on the 2005 election.
UPDATE 42.25% Turnout figure

Glasgow East candidates

Ind Chris Creighton 67 0.3%
Scot Soc Frances Curran 555 2.1%
Labour Margaret Curran 10912 41.6%
Scot Grn Eileen Duke 232 0.9%
F-4-C Hamish Howitt 65 0.2%
Soli Tricia McLeish 512 1.9%
SNP John Mason 11277 43%
Cons Davena Rankin 1639 6.2%
Lib Dem Ian Robertson 915 3.4%
Turnout 26219

General Election 2005 result
Labour David Marshall 18,775 60.7%
SNP Lachlan McNeill 5,268 17.0%
Lib Dem David Jackson 3,665 11.8%
Cons Carl Thomson 2,135 6.9%
Scot Soc George Savage 1,096 3.5%
Majority 13,507 43.7%
Turnout 30,939 48.2 %

  • slug

    Any early indicators on turnout and from the betting markets?

  • fair_deal
  • slug

    The thread suggests that Labour are feeling nervous:

    Polling Suggests Photo Finish

  • Concerned Loyalist

    I won’t be staying up as I have to get up for work at 5am, but I will be rooting for Margaret Curran, the Labour candidate. I’m not a big Labour fan at present but anyone’s better than the SNP.

  • picador

    I’m hoping for regular updates from McDewi. And wishing him luck with his wager.

  • wild turkey

    ‘Turnout is estimated to be 46% down 2% on the 2005 election. ‘

    If so, a very impressive turnout for a by-election.

    FD, on a compassionate and supportive note, the result will be late. Go to sleep now.

    Your work on this planet is done.

  • slug

    Labour are looking incredibly gloomy. It looks like they are going to lose.

  • slug

    Well everything is pointing to a Labour loss, so the question becomes whether Gordon Brown can remain. And I believe that he cannot.

  • DC

    Slug, Labour loss, where you getting that from?

  • Maximus

    Labour loss – apparently growing confidence within SNP circles. coming from a scottish gov source.

  • Michael Shilliday

    BBC now saying probable SNP win by around 1000.

  • picador

    BBC News is saying that it ‘appears’ that Labour have lost. Counting continues. Nats apparently claiming that they will win by 1,000 votes.

  • picador

    Oh for RTE and the tally-men!

  • DC

    David Cairns (remember him?) is playing down Labour win, pressures over utility bills and bread and butter prices unsticking Labour.

  • LURIG

    BBC are increasingly confident that the SNP have won this. I am not surprised. I have travelled over to the East End of Glasgow for over 20 years to watch Celtic and the poverty & housing are far far worse than ANYTHING I have ever seen in the North of Ireland (in the modern era). It’s one of the most run down, depressed, forgotten parts of mainland Britain and it looks like the people have eventually revolted. You had fellas going to Celtic matches from West Belfast, Ardoyne, Derry, Newry etc shaking their heads at the living conditions there because the area around Celtic Park in Glasgow East is grim. In all the time I have been going over the situation doesn’t seem to have changed much. YES there is a sectarian tinge to the constituency but not enough to split it into Catholic/Protestant because most of the area is poor. Labour is getting a real kick in the balls from ordinary people and they have nobody to blame but themselves. They have spent 11 years mimicking the Tories, sucking up to big business and failed.

  • picador

    SNP candidate has just arrived to a hero’s welcome. The contrast with Labour was absolute.

    BBC commentators are playing this one down – big time.

  • Fair Deal

    Another 20-30 minutes wait

  • picador

    SNP have it by a significant margin, perhaps 1500 votes. A recount is NOT in the offing.

    BBC coverage sooo boring.

  • picador

    Here we go ….

  • DC

    FFS no, Tony Blair ffs Iraq :O( Not Scottish Nationalism!!!!!!!!!!

    D:Ream

    You can walk my path
    You can wear my shoes
    Let her talk like me
    And be an angel too

    But maybe
    You ain’t never gonna feel this way
    You ain’t never gonna know me
    But I know you…
    Teach you now that

    Things can only get better
    Can only get, can only get
    They get on from here
    You know, I know that
    Things can only get better

    I sometimes lose myself in me
    I lose track of time
    And I can’t see the world’s formed trees
    You set them alight, burning the bridges as you go
    I’m too weak to fight you
    I got my personal health to deal with
    And you say

    Walk my path
    Wear my shoes
    Talk like me
    I’ll be an angel and

    (CHORUS:)
    Things can only get better
    Can only get better
    Now I’ve found you
    (That means me)
    (Will you teach me now)
    Things can only get better
    Can only get better
    Now I’ve found you

    And you and you…
    You… show me prejudice and greed
    You show me how
    I must learn to deal with this disease
    I look at things now
    In a different light than I did before
    I found the cause
    And I think that you could be my cure
    And you say

    Walk your path
    Wear your shoes
    Talk like that
    I’ll be an angel too

    (chorus)

    Things can only get, can only get
    Things can only get, can only get
    Things can only get, can only get
    Things can only get, can only get

    CAN ONLY GET BETTER!

  • Fair Deal

    FFS get on with it

  • Fair Deal

    Recount

  • picador

    Ooh RECOUNT! Who’s asked for it?

  • LURIG

    Picador,

    What was that you were saying about a recount? LOL
    Looks like it is a cert now!!

  • picador

    Nat majority 354 on first count

    Go to bed FD!

  • Michael Shilliday

    Labour I reckon. Talking about there being 2 currans on the ballot

  • Michael Shilliday

    Ah, apparently SNP majority is less than the total number of votes the other Curran got. Thats why.

  • picador

    LURIG,

    Yeah, caught out there. But so was the BBC. Pathetic! Wouldn’t happen on RTE.

  • Fair Deal

    picador

    I’ve started so I’ll finish, my sleep cycle means I’ll be up to be abt 3 now anyway

  • picador

    So why are they doing a full recount?

  • picador

    Whoops, cancel that.

    Are the media banned from talking to the electoral officials or something. They seem absolutely clueless.

  • Conquistador

    “Are the media banned from talking to the electoral officials or something. They seem absolutely clueless.”

    lol – I’ve been wondering why they don’t go and ask the returning officer what’s up

  • picador

    A simple ‘Listen mate, I’ve been up all day and I wanna go to bed. What is the crack?’ would suffice.

    Conquistador,

    You killed my ancestors, you heartless bastard!

  • picador

    I love it when they say on RTE ‘Well, they still haven’t opened the boxes from Athlone yet so she might just make it on the first count’.

    Shit, I need help!

  • Conquistador

    If I weren’t such a heartless bastard I’d apologise.

    A lot of Bright red suits about tonight:

    Margret Curran
    Davena Rankin
    Nicola Sturgeon…

    seems to be all the rage for female politicians these days.

  • DC

    No, ffs no. So the moment comes as we always knew it would tonight – SNP. Ffs no.

  • percy

    YES SNP win brilliant
    Prionsa will be chuffed.

  • LURIG

    Joking aside, a real shift in UK politics is on the cards here. Glasgow East was as safe a Labour seat as ANYWHERE. That the SNP have taken it sends out the clearest signal that Scotland wants OUT of the UK because even a Labour government has shown that Westminster doesn’t give a f**k about Scotland, especially poor Scotland. THE BREAK UP OF THE UNFAIR CLASS RIDDEN UNION STARTS HERE………….HURRAH!!

  • DC

    err the Lib Dems making the marginal differnece, however, the east end must ‘never be taken for granted again’!

  • Negative-to-Positive

    Cut the fecking Stalinists free, let them all figure it out for themselves!!!!!!!!!!!

  • Dewi

    Bit disappointed at the majority !!! LOL !!! wonderful !!!!

  • foreign correspondent

    Brilliant, absolutely brilliant. It couldn´t have happened to a bigger bunch of thugs.
    New Labour – Same Oul S**t
    Alba abú!

  • Phil

    Yeeesssssssss!

  • willowfield

    Shocking turn-out for a very high-profile by-election.

  • smcgiff

    The people have spoken – The Beauties!

  • puca

    willowfield: about the turnout- BBC were saying it was actually higher than some people expected. Alot of people from the eastend were saying they were not going to vote because they were being hassled so much – too many knocks on the door, calls, leaflets. A bit overkill.
    I did hear alot of people from the eastend who were going to vote either saying their dad and grandad voted Labour and they don’t like them but they’ll be voting them anyway because ‘they’re the working mans party’, and then others saying because of their record in that constituency they would never ever vote Labour again.
    It was a big swing, I hope they manage to keep it in the next election but only if they do good things for Glasgow East. There are alot of good things going on there in the community and I know a couple of people who live there and they have good jobs etc. but I’m studying to be a S+L therapist over here and I had a work placement in Glasgow East – the poverty there is a disgrace, the school I went to was like something out of a warzone.
    Also, I know they had to because of the name thing but Frances Curran was a good candidate, compared to the rest of the small parties – she deserved the number of votes she received so it was a bit of a shame to put a dampener on it with the recount.

  • ggn

    Well done SNP, good work indeed.

    Alba gu bráth

    Code word : hope

  • jer

    If I were a Scottish labour MP in a safe seat I would be concerned. If I were a Scottish MP in a marginal seat I would already be planning for a life after politics.

  • Wilkins

    Scottish Labour MPs seem more concerned with making abortion compulsory, decommissioning the nuclear family and bringing in unsustainable amouts of immigrants.

  • Rory

    The lesson for Labour is now writ large – if you desert your people, eventually your people will desert you. In Glasgow East that eventuality has now come to pass.

  • Wilkins

    that’s what they call ”social justice” btw

  • K McLaughlin

    YES!
    LABOUR GUBBED!
    Haw, Brown, your jaiket is on a shoogly nail!
    (A Scottish friend will translate for you, if you have any that is)!

    PS Sorry about the crowing, but I have waited 3 decades for this.

  • dewi

    K Mc – wonderful day!

  • Greenflag

    Thanks to Fair Deal for his late night efforts. Such dedication above and beyond 🙂 Let’s hope his good wife is not too hard on him for his ‘politics’ 🙂

    And while congratulations are in order for the Nats the numbers tell us that 43% of 42% is approx 19% of the electorate who actually bothered to come out to vote for the SNP. Hardly a ringing endorsement for an independent Scotland more a shot across the bows for the British Labour Party which has failed it’s supporters in what appears to be one of the most deprived constituencies in the UK ?

    But no doubt about it . Mr Brown is now more popular abroad than he is at home. From successful Chancellor to failed Prime Minister all in a few months . Such is political life .

  • dewi

    Actually not a bad turnout for an urban holiday by election with an old (and fairly inaccurate by all accounts) electoral roll. Salmond and Cameron both will cross their fingers that Brown hangs on. Me I think certain reluctant doners might have a quiet word……

  • Greenflag

    Dewi

    ‘Me I think certain reluctant donors might have a quiet word’

    Gordon Brown is not for listening . He’ll hang on till his fingernails are prised out 🙂

    The Scots may be as someone was quoted to have said ‘sense Irish but without the balls ‘ but they know how to hang on in an uncomfortable situation if they have to . There are several million sheep in the highlands who can attest to the fact 🙂

  • dewi

    Suspect Lord Levy at the ready with the pliers…..

  • Prionsa Eoghan

    >>Shocking turn-out for a very high-profile by-election.
    Posted by willowfield @ 09:02 AM< < I propose we all chip in and buy the Willow a sun lamp as he is obviously of a similar sunny disposition as oor Gordy. >>Nats the numbers tell us that 43% of 42% is approx 19% of the electorate who actually bothered to come out to vote for the SNP.<< Comparable to other working class areas or not Greenflag? Without being over dramatic. If the Holyrood elections of two years ago were our Alamein, then surely this was our Kursk. In the short space of time we have gone from being ecstatic at actually being able to challenge new labour, to looking forward to being the authors of their demise in what can only be called the tribal heartlands of Scotland. The SNP have arrived for good. The professionalism, dedication and desire in the campaign was there for all to see. Against a very good Labour candidate, the labour spin machine and almost all the newspapers. I listened with disbelief as various commentaters tried to shrug off this result as being nothing about independence. Well every bit of literature from Labour had it to the fore, repeating the same auld bogey man stories. Well they came on as before and we knocked them down as before. John Mason was portrayed as a hard line Nationalist, yet this never stopped people voting for him. From what I can deduce, if say, we cannot be sure that people are 100% for independence, we know now that they no longer fear it and indeed would be just as comfortable as the status quo at the very least. Also Salmond put his integrity on the line here. He clearly called it a battle between the two governments. A high risk strategy that would leave him open to attack should the SNP have been defeated. I'm not sure if all are aware that we cannot compare places like Glasgow with other labour voting areas in England. Sure there are diehards in England, but the intense loyalty to Labour is hard to put across, I could virtually guarantee that almost all of Labour's vote came from the over 50 age group. This result is worth ten Crewe and Nantwich losses, and those in the Labour party know it. Things have changed for good.

  • Dewi

    LAbour MSP George Foulkes on the tele: (Quoted in a comment on a Scotsman article)

    “The SNP are on a very dangerous tack. What they are doing is trying to build up a situation in Scotland where the services are manifestly better than south of the border in a number of areas.”

    Interviewer Colin Mackay:”Is that a bad thing?”

    Lord George Foulkes: “No, but they are doing it deliberately.”!!

    You really couldn’t make it up.
    Enjoy your holiday Eoghan !

  • Prionsa Eoghan

    Dewi

    You do realise that Foulkes is someone who is put up for this kind of thing. makes you kind of wonder about their strength in depth.

    Also was mentioning the Celtic result necessary? I thought that you had deliberately forgot to mention it in the spirit of comradely nations. The thought of going another season watching Strachan’s kind of football makes me feel sick…………..honestly, it makes me feel queezy.

    Apparently the hotel I’m going to is full of Israeli’s. My last experience with Israeli wimmen in Turkey was a good one in a Turkish bath massage place with two naked girls for an hour, I didn’t know where to look……………………bullshit! of course I did.

  • Dewi
    Do you have a link to the Foulkes interview?
    cheers

  • dewi

    Phil – no – it was quoted in the comments on a Scotsman article – I’ll have a look when I am home.

  • I love East!