Kenya: it hasn’t gone away

I have avoided blogging on Kenya for a while. I was hoping to blog some sort of possible solution and analyse it. Thus far, however, none has been forthcoming. There have been a series of negotiations between the President Mwai Kibaki and opposition leader Raila Odinga. The bones of an agreement seem to be there with power sharing and Mr. Odinga becoming Prime Minister. The failure to agree is complex problem. One problem is that the post of PM does not exist in the Kenyan constitution and Odinga is concerned that unless the constitution is amended he will be dumped at a later date by Kibaki (as has happened before).The talks have been suspended by the chief mediator Kofi Annan but he appears to feel that there are other ways forward. Dr. Condoleeza Rice the US Secretary of State has accused both sides of a lack of leadership and other African leaders have been applying pressure to conclude an agreement. Although the violence has subsided and Kenya has been troubled by violence on a somewhat smaller scale previously; normality has not been restored with major social and financial implications.

The best analysis of the problems I have found is here from Wachira Maina though I will not pretend to know his personal political position; it seems a fairly balanced analysis of the outstanding problems.

I hope the next time I blog on Kenya it will be happier news (Deus Volens).