Donegal NE: Rests on FF transfers…

This was always going to be tight, but it remains to be seen who is going to be the victim of FF’s strategic defence. With so many votes staying inside the FF camp, the odds must be on it remaining with them.

McHugh (FG) 8447

McDaid (FF) 6724

MacLochlainn (SF) 6630

Kaeveney (FF) 6252

Blaney (FF) 6275

,

  • MacLochlainn needs a miracle.

  • SuperSoupy

    Who cares McDowell is gone!

  • Mick Fealty

    Is he?

  • SuperSoupy

    Liz O’Donnell gone too! Every cloud.

  • SuperSoupy

    Mick,

    Did you not sign up to p.ie twitter?

    1,100 behind 900 to transfer. Out next.

  • John Mitchell

    Jim Mc Daid has just tipped Mac Lochlain, based on much of the Keavney vote staying in Inishowen.

  • Mick Fealty

    SW: Coughlan; Pat the Cope; and Dinny McGinley look like processing home… in that order…

  • Dewi

    How long do Irish elections effing last !!!!

  • still counting

    Not as long as British rule.

  • slug

    Doneg NE looks like an interesting cliffhanger!

    Mary Lou now essentially out.

  • Mick Fealty

    This constituency will be wrapped before morning…

  • Yokel

    It all depends on whether you think the critical factor is transfers based on geography or bnased on party.

    If its party SF arent going to get it. If its geography they are in with a chance.

  • Mick Fealty

    It’s geography, and old IFF loyalties. Trust me! Still not going to come down one side or the other. Blaney has got to be sitting on a big fat swathe of pro SF voters. Too some extent it will depend on the order of departure of the FF TDs. But MacLochlainn is right in amongst them.

  • Mick Fealty

    From IrishElection.com:

    First count in Donegal NE
    Blaney, Niall 6288
    Doherty, Mary 339
    Gallagher, Frank 520
    Harte, Jimmy 1313
    Keaveney, Cecilia 6362
    MacLochlainn, Padraig 6733
    McDaid, James 6724
    McGarvey, Ian 766
    McGuinness, Arthur 86
    McHugh, Joe 8711
    McLaughlin, Siobhan 703

    Turnout 38,921
    Valid Poll
    Quota 9637
    Turnout 68%

    McGuinness; Doherty to be eliminated, both are Inishowen candidates so expect both Keaveney and MacLochlainn to benefit.

    Gallagher of the Greens, former SF, is out next. Hard to call where his votes will go.

    Ian McGarvey is from Milford – Blaney and McHugh to benefit from transfers.

    Siobhan McLaughlin is from Buncrana – expect Padraig MacLochlainn to benefit (geography) and Keaveney (gender).

    Harte has Letterkenny base, former FG. His transfers will elect McHugh and likely benefit McDaid substantially too.

    After that, who knows.

    Keep an eye on the count on RTE.

  • slug

    The discussion gives the impression that the folks of Donegal are awfully parochial.

  • Mick Fealty

    Well, in some respects, they are. Though that’s not necessarily as pejorative as it might sound. A lot of it is to do with geography. Just look at a map, particularly the mountains and the inlets. There are a lot of natural barriers that don’t exist in other parts of the island.

  • Yokel

    McHugh looks to be going in on the next count. Blayney has just over 100 votes to try to overhaul the trailing FF person or else he’s first to go and his votes could go all over the FF 2 and SF.

    If the FF candidate goes first they’ll take the one left will likely take the seat, parochialism or not.

  • Yokel

    Looks like Blaney will be ahead of Keaveney so shes first out.

  • slug

    Yokel

    A chance now to find out how parochial they really are up there 🙂

  • Mick Fealty

    From IrishElection.com:

    “…if Keaveny goes as fifth from top her transfers are forecast to carry MacLoughlinn and Blaney over the line for seats 2 and 3″…

    If this were to be the case, the Jim McDaid and Cecilia (the only two formally elected FF TDs) take the drop…

    And the FF’s strategic defence would have been seriously busted…

  • Yokel

    Blaney himself reckons he and McDaid are going to get in. He doesn’t seem too doubtful either that Keveaney is going to be eliminated after Harte’s transfers.

    I hear they have to keep working the count tonight because theres a wedding reception or something at the venue so they need to be put early tomorrow.

  • Mick Fealty

    A relative of one of the election agents is what I hear…

  • Yokel

    McHugh secure and with a surplus of a few hundred….

    Blaney & Keaveney well behind McDaid. Blaney has closed the gap on Keaveney and may well do modestly better on transfers to get him past Keaveney.

    If Keaveney goes first her votes are liable to more strongly stay within FF over Blaney if he got eliminated.

  • Mick Fealty

    Your last is the critical factor. Well informed!

  • páid

    Not only are they parochial, folk in Donegal NE don’t vote for surnames beginning with Mac.

    What kind of crazy bigots are they?

  • Yokel

    Sorry I think he’s past her and all.

  • Yokel

    Yep Blaney is ineed past Keaveney and all and with 400 trasnfers from McHugh she’d have to be going some to claw that back.

    What McHugh will do though is possibly slightly close the gaps between Blaney and McDaid and the SF candidate.

    Keaveney’s votes will need to give Blaney a good 500 odd transfers over the SF man to get Blaney in ahead. McDaid just needs to get the same number of transfers to stay ahead.

    Keaveney’s old man was part of IFF at one time wasnt he?

    Its possible that her trasnfers alone will end this contest oen way or another but I’m guessing she might get McDaid (or possibly Blaney) over and then their surplus will make it final.

    Either way, the SF candidate has got to hope get no more than 500 less transfers from Keaveney as Blaney, assuming McDaid will stay ahead which is probably the case.

  • osok

    Was at the count all day, you guys were pretty accurate with what you were thinking, apart from one comment from Mick Fealty quoted irishelection.ie (i think) as saying blaney and S.F. would benefit from Keaveneys transferrs, it was well known all day that McDaid was going to benefit strongest from Keaveney, I heard that first at about 3.30pm. blaney should have gone, why vote for someone just becuase their uncle was a good politician, he ran a dirty tricks campaign from the start, his door to door campaign was more aimed at discrediting McDaid than what he would do if he got in, even Neil t Blaneys son is quoted as saying not to vote for him (http://www.irishelection.com/07/blaney-and-mcdaid-to-go-head-to-head/). Lets see Berties head roll next!!!