Claims from the Tallies

What party talliers are telling slugger and late night rumours. (UPDATED 1.30)Slugger is aiming to give full coverage of the actual results rather than tally and late election day rumours but here is what we have heard so far.

In South Belfast there was apparently a heavy presence of West Belfast SF activists indicating a hard fight is on for the 6th seat.

In North Antrim, some concern in the UUP that the turnout was down in areas where they are strongest.

In Lagan Valley, a UU tallier says that the power of Donaldson’s name seems to be overcoming the DUP vote management strategy. In terms of the UU race there, McCrea ahead (possibly on a quota) with Bell the second strongest UU candidate. McCartney not polling well. The tallier hasn’t seen many nationalist boxes but of what he has seen SDLP voters seem to be transferring poorly to SF. UPDATE: Donaldson to be elected on 1st count with a large surplus is the prediction. On a review of the full tallies, a UUP tallier is predicting 4 DUP, 1 UUP and 1 SF, possibly 3 DUP returned on 1st count. The UUP may be able to pip DUP to fifth Unionist seat. SDLP attracting transfers but have lost the battle in nationalist areas (4 to 1 in the Lagmore boxes).

UPDATE: In south Belfast DUP vote management working for their two candidates.

UPDATE: From SDLP tallies in North Down, McCartney and McFarland in trouble, Greens may take McCartney’s seat.

UPDATE: SDLP tallyman in Strangford predicts 4 DUP 1 UUP and 1 SDLP. Anti-SA Unionist very poor result.

UPDATE: UUP tallyman from FST. 41,839 votes , 71.68% turnout. No change likely, very poor dissident performance.

UPDATE: North Down – SDLP tallyman predicting Easton to top poll. South Belfast – Confusion rules with party tallies disagreeing. South Antrim – Alliance predicting gains for SF and DUP in South Antrim.

UPDATE: North Antrim – In BBC interview Paisley claims DUP vote up 5% in North Antrim, 3 expected to be returned on 1st count with 4 seats likely.

NOTE: Please treat all tally information with some care especially early in the count and the usual pinch of salt on rumours.

  • sms

    too early to read anything into it but apparently the Sinn Fein vote management in West Belfast is awesome young” people before profit ” candidate Seán Mitchell seems to be making a good show.

  • Darrell monteith

    On my observation as polling agent for the DUP(the only one for any party) the vote was stronger among unionist voters than nationalist in the area I was working in and certainly it was the case in a couple of other polling stations around Omagh.

  • Mark

    Are enough people really likely to tell a randomer outside the polling station how they voted for these kind of ‘observations’ to have any weight?

  • slug

    “SDLP attracting transfers but have lost the battle in nationalist areas.”

    If repeated elsewhere then the SDLP can wave goodbye to that seat in West Belfast, South Antrim, and hopes of gains in Newry Armagh, with further losses possible in FST and UB.

  • fair_deal

    Mark

    Tallies are not exit polls. It is people looking at the votes as they come out of the box

  • bootman

    Mark,

    These seem to be based on tallies i.e. people monitoring the actual counting not on exit polls i.e. asking people as they leave who they voted for

  • slug

    Keep the info coming FD, much appreciated.

  • North Antrim Rambler

    From the boxes early North Antrim Prediction may change as time passes

    DUP4 (3 first count)
    UUP1
    SF1

    SDLP could lose the old Sean Farren seat.

  • J_K

    South Armagh boxes indicate 80-85% for Conor Murphy. About 13% for BRadley and 2-3% for Hyland. Local SF tellers say possible SDLP swing to SF.

  • John Farrell

    Tally men (and of course women) are experts in their particular arts. As indeed are spin doctors. Two different disciplines.
    But some tallymen like to “spin” on the basis that it totally annoys the opposition…and plays on the very uncertainty in this very strange period between the first box being opened and the first declaration.
    Not wishing to be left out of this ….I can report…very truthfully…that the UUP are expecting a very bad day. This admittedly is based on an online convo with one UUP man

  • Joe Unionist

    Polling was busy at Edenderry Primary School last night. Calvert supporters were claiming good feedback from people voting. The other dissident unionist – Susan Peoples – not thought to be polling well.

  • Mark

    OK, ta for clarification.

  • Pol

    What time are we expecting the first count results

  • mickhall

    Thanks Fair Deal and the rest of the slugger team for your work on this.

  • sanyo

    Any news on boxes in West Belfast?

  • Henry94

    Very early doors and impressions based on boxes from particular area can be well out.

    But at this stage, for junkies, bad information is much better than none. So keep it coming.

  • BonarLaw

    Fair Deal

    I’m hooked. No marking today!

  • Nevin
  • Southern Observer

    SDLP are ‘pleased’ in Strangford.

  • J_K

    Lagmore boxes looking very very good for Paul Butler

  • sanyo

    What’s the tally figures in lagmore?

  • Michael

    Just heading to the count centre at Foyle and East Derry now. Will have a report soon. The turnout is said to be high in east Derry and it will be counted first.

  • J_K

    72% for Butler

  • Tochais Síoraí

    Well done, FD et al, f**k all work gonna happen here today.

  • sanyo

    thanks JK

  • Yokel

    If this is so, SDLP look dead in Lagan Valley unless they can hang in the race see massive trasnfers from elsewhere.

    Key question is will Butler find himself in on a 1st count or find himself going through the machinations of seeing his initial lead eaten into during the transfer process.

    Whither Alliance at this point?

  • TKmaxx

    Surely Laganmore boxes will look good for Butler? Is not that where his vote primarily comes from? But like all junkies keep it coming.

  • sometimes neutral observer

    Have spoken to colleagues at a few counts:

    SOUTH BELFAST: DUP doing well, McDonnell polling well but Hanna is behind. Lo stronger than expected. Maskey getting strong vote (so far).
    Only McGimpsey polling for UUP.

    NORTH BELFAST: SDLP’s Convery very weak, Maginnis lower than expected.

    LAGAN VALLEY: Can confirm BUTLER is doing very well as SDLP crumbling (so far).

  • Man from the east

    Any news on east belfast?

  • A O’L

    No whispers from FST or WT yet?

  • sanyo

    I reckon someone should be tallying transfers in Lagan Valley, Butler aint home and dry and doubt he’l get a quota in first count??

  • Yokel

    Interesting to see if Maskey can get the transfers. You’d expect a good 1st count showing but its what could get him over the line in terms of SDLP transfers later.

    Lo is obviously going to be comparativey transfer friendly so a good 1st count either suggests that some Alliance down the card preferences have got moved up to 1sts this or she is just straight doing well. Possible a mix of both.

  • BBC website is reporting that Davy Hyland has conceded.

  • middle-class taig

    What’s the likelihood of the shinner/alliance antagonism in both SA and SB getting both elected in each, at the expense of the SDLP? – like FG in East in the last Euros.

  • BonarLaw

    Looks like Ford has been saved by SDLP in-fighting.

  • Yokel

    Hyland needed to post big early given that he had few sources of transfers.

    He must be nowhere near it. The question is now whether his vote transfers.

  • MICKYBRADY

    JUST SPOKE WITH DAVY HYLAND,S PEOPLE THEIR COUNT IS LOW BUT HASNT CONCEDED YET

  • North Down

    what the lastest on McCartney in N Down

    Is it too early to say “BYE BYE BOB!!!!”

  • MICKYBRADY

    ANYBODY HAVING TROUBLE WITH GETTING ON TO SLUGGER ?SEEMS VERY SLOW

  • Pol

    Slugger very slow for me – have to keep refreshing as page keeps coming up as unavailable and only comes up every so often.

  • BonarLaw

    MICKEYBRADY & Pol

    same problem with Slugger, although I’ve just got the BBC text confirming no one elected yet.

  • smoking

    Bob QC is in Big T in North D…

  • Nestor Makhno

    Slugger – is your server under a lot of pressure? Having repeated time outs and failed access to your database.

    Are you running this show off a Sinclair Spectrum? Surely it should be able to cope with a few thousand requests?

  • Jeffrey calling it for Paul Butler in Lagan Valley.

  • J_K

    SDLP and DUP on about 4,200 (for both SDLP candidates in West Belfast)although only transfer probably for DUP – although I hear Nigel says that Diane is 500 short.

    SF in battle for last seat in UPper BAnn – very poor SDLP vote.

    SF looking good in Lagan Valley – SDLP Lisburn vote collapsing. Looks like Butler 1st Pref somewhere near 4,100.

    Mitchel looking good in South Antrim. Last seat looks like contest between SDLP and Alliance.

    Some reports that Cathal Boylan out polling Sharon Haughey 2:1 in the Armagh end of Newry Armagh.

    West Tyrone some SF tellers indicating that very very hopeful of 3rd seat.

    In South Down only have info on the midle area where Willie Clarke is running – tally at about 4,150 (aprox 75% turn out of green register)

  • North Antrim Rambler

    10:44 forecast for North Antrim

    DUP 4
    UUP 1
    SF 1

    Still looks the outcome

  • moyle rover

    If the SDLP loose the seat in Nantrim they have only themselves to blame. Running two candidates when you poll less than a quota is suicide

  • North Antrim Rambler

    update North Antrim

    SDLP’s O’Loan may pip DUP for 6th seat after all

    Paisley Senior and Storey DUP and Mackay SF in on 1st vote.

  • Valenciano

    RTE reporting that Deeny may lose and DUP may gain UUP seat in South Down. Hyland down and out in Newry+Armagh apparently.

    http://www.rte.ie/news/2007/0308/nielection1.html

    UUP may just hold on in North Belfast but it’ll be tight. Birnie looks set to lose to Alliance in South Belfast which looks like it may be SDLP 2, SF 1, APNI 1, DUP 1, UUP 1. DUP vote management in South Belfast screws up and Stalford likely to lose.

    RSF beaten by stickies in West Belfast!!! LOL!

  • Valenciano

    North Antrim result just in looks like no change although it’ll be tighter than the SDLP would have liked between them and the 4th DUP.

  • middle-class taig

    Stalford losing in South Belfast.

    Tragedy.