Budget bounce for FF/PD Government

The Sunday Business Post latest tracking poll is out and Fianna Fail has got the expected budget bounce with their best results in a year 42%. With their present partners the PD’s on 3% the ruling coalition is on 45%, 12% ahead of Fine Gael (21%) and Labour (12%) and 5% ahead of a ‘Rainbow’ coalition. Independents are on 8% ahead of the Greens and Sinn Fein, both on 7%. This continues the lack of yeast in SF’s poll numbers although they will take solace from the positive impact a policing decision may have, over half of those polled saying such a shift would make them “more likely” to vote for Sinn Fein.

  • Henry94

    It’s a bad one for Fine Gael. It will be even worse for them if the election becomes a question of PDs or labour as FFs partners in government. Not much point in voting Fine Gael then.

  • Rubicon

    FD – I suspect SF will be taking more than solace. Poll %’s for SF are always low – mostly I think because of SF’s election strategy that targets constituencies. Add to this the trend that polls and seats in STV elections underestimate smaller parties.

    What SF did today will increase their popularity. FF objections to a coalition with SF are also loosing ground. If the PD’s offer FF minority government but SF can deliver majority government – the PD move aside. It becomes a Labour / SF battle and one may be more accommodating (in the southern context) than the other.

  • fair_deal

    Rubicon

    “Poll %’s for SF are always low”

    In Northern Ireland yes but there are a number of RoI commentors on here deny there is such a phenomenon in the south. IIRC they say that SF were at 7% in the polls the last time and got slightly less 6.5% in the actual election.

  • Henry94

    A good election for Sinn Fein will be 10 seats. that should be acheivable.

  • kensei

    “In Northern Ireland yes but there are a number of RoI commentors on here deny there is such a phenomenon in the south. IIRC they say that SF were at 7% in the polls the last time and got slightly less 6.5% in the actual election.”

    But they didn’t run in every constituency, surely?

  • tallyman

    Sinn fein don’t get transfers like other parties in the south, If they did they would have done a lot better in 1997 and 2002.

    10 seats is unlikely because of this fact.

  • Crataegus

    Rubicon

    It becomes a Labour / SF battle and one may be more accommodating (in the southern context) than the other.

    The only way SF would enter into this is as a lever against Labour. Even the Greens will enter into the equation. Why would FF want to give SF a leg up? Long term added credibility could mean less FF votes.

    Henry94

    SF should get a bounce after yesterday but where do you see the extra 5 seats? Donegal, Dublin Central and then where?

    I think SF and Greens will gain a few but don’t see a doubling on the cards. Need a lot of luck for that to happen.

  • Glensman

    I agree with Crategus, 8 seats seems achievable… 10 would be very hopeful. At the same time Sinn Féin seem to be very well placed for the election after next and for the local council’s after this general election.

  • Don’t forget the seats Sinn Fein might lose. Martin Ferris in North Kerry is suffering alot from labours Terry O’Brian. And most polls have them losing that seat. I think 8 seats for Sinn Fein would be hopefull. I think they will win 1-2 seats and lose at least 1. They will get feck all of a bump from this. They didn’t get much for decommissioning so I doubt they will get much from this.

    Sinn Fein simply do not get transfers.

  • Dublin voter

    I’m not convinced that SF will win a seat in Dublin Central with Mary Lou. I live in the constituency and here’s my take on it. Nicky Kehoe, their previous candidate, got a great vote out of his home area of Cabra where he has a strong track record of local community work – practically owns the very successful GAA club there. He also got votes from working class inner city areas. He also had a committed group of workers who canvassed for him. Mary Lou on the other hand is a blow in from middle-class Rathgar. The SF election workers just won’t have the fire in their bellies that they had for Kehoe. He was one of their own, Mary Lou certainly ain’t. There is the possibility that Mary Lou will pick up some votes in the middle class parts of the constituency – Glasnevin, Drumcondra. But I don’t see that compensating for the loss of votes in their traditional areas – Cabra people who voted for Kehoe because they knew him and knew the great local work he put in. They may now vote 1 for other names that they know like Labour’s Costello, Tony Gregory etc. So my prediction is no SF seat in Dublin Central.

  • Wilde Rover

    I’m not sure the no transfers thing will last.

    As a “north/south half breed” raised in the south I was always struck by the peculiar way many of my fellow citizen’s eyes would glaze over at the mere mention of the north as they entered a comforting trance in an attempt to shoo away the bogeymen from up there.

    All, I am sure, to do with the unconscious feelings of collective guilt in relation to their northern brethren, like people in lifeboats listening to the fading plaintive cries of those left behind.

    But now that the Shinners have become the latest in a long line to complete the 12-step republican shuffle I imagine that the southern electorate will now peruse their literature whilst entertaining the possibility of a vote down the line.

    However, if they are still trying to flog “Republican Europhobia” with such politically inept and partitionist “policies” like “Keep the Pound” then the voter on the doorstep might kindly suggest that they haven’t really thought this through.

  • Crataegus

    Dublin Voter

    I also have doubts about a SF gain in Dublin Central, but they will throw everything at it. Transfers could give the seat to Greens and not SF. I would expect McKenna to poll well and is likely to get a boost from FG transfers. The last seat could go anywhere.

    Generally I don’t see SF in the south being anything other than a small party. They have a limited appeal and difficult to see where they can expand.

    The working class – middle class split you describe could become increasingly problematic for SF. In many ways the Policing debate is the public manifestation of some deeper divisions.

  • Greenflag

    SF may gain a seat or two country wide as a result of the Ard Fheis decision re PSNI and they will probably come from transfers from the ‘republican left’ vote . Overall in the Republic SF have to compete with Labour and the Greens for the ‘left/environmental’ vote . There is at most a 15% to 20 % left vote in the Republic .The centre commands most support 70% plus and the ‘right wing’elements within FG and the PD’s probably around 15% . If FG drop much further in the polls you can expect their ‘doubters’ to vote or transfer to the PD’s rather than Labour. Bertie is almost home and dry for another term -and why should’nt he ? Not the greatest ‘leader’ but a safe pair of hands and a good manager’ With an FF/PD Coalition returned the Republic can look forward to another four years of stable government and continuing economic and social progress.

    FG and Labour as I said a few months back will soon be looking for ‘new’ leadership . Where it will come from we’ll only see after the election.