“Bulk of South Derry Brigade” quits the Provos claim

An article in the Sunday Tribune claims that most of the membership of so-called South Derry Brigade of the PIRA have quit the organisation in protest at the policies of the leadership in particular on policing. This group of 25 men are said to be:

“…committed to the ‘tactical use of armed struggle’ and planned to carry out intermittent attacks on the security forces.”

A source for the article says the group have access to firearms and are intending to build linkages with other republican groups. A nail bomb was found in the area recently as well as a rise in sectarian attacks.

  • Prince Eoghan

    ” A nail bomb was found in the area recently as well as a rise in sectarian attacks.”

    What the hell has Republicanism got to do with sectarian attacks FD?

    On a similar note. I watched “The wind that shakes the barley” last night. There we also had the men of honour debating with those who sought a un-equal peace deal. I suppose it is great credit to Adams et al that they have managed to bring the overwhelming bulk of Republicanism this far, especially in the face of the reality that this kind of peace deal was not worth a drop of Irish blood.

    In the cold light of day to renew the armed struggle only serves to please the hypocrites that say that they were oppossed to Ireland’s fight for freedom.

  • fair_deal

    PE

    “What the hell has Republicanism got to do with sectarian attacks FD?”

    Republicans are not immune from sectarianism or from acting in that fashion. In this area the INLA admitted its members were involved blaming a rogue member/informer. However, since that claim the attacks have continued.

  • carlosblancos

    If Sue has this level of detail in her artilce, rest assured MI5 have it fully infiltrated, eh, I mean ‘covered’. One wonders how much Eliza has set aside for the ‘South Derry Disaffected Provos’ fund.

    Ridiculous statement from men no-one voted for and no-one supports.

  • Dualta

    I’ve heard a couple of significant Republicans who are opposed to the current leadership say that they agree that the war had to come to an end as it was failing to produce the desird result, but that they can’t agree with how the leadeship went about it.

    These people who are generally opposed to the RIRA and CIRA told me that they believed that the leadership were not honest with the membership about what could be achieved as a result of the peace process and that Republicans have been sold a pup.

    The IRA didn’t win the war and ‘Slan Abhaile’ didn’t happen.

  • declan

    The “2021 scenario” may be dawning early on some nationalists, although others continue to think that demographic increase will bring nationalists to critical mass. These people are however opting for the self-destructing option of violence rather than the more peaceful one of arguing for repartition.

    Expect more as the “2021 scenario” comes closer.

  • seabhac siulach

    “These people are however opting for the self-destructing option of violence rather than the more peaceful one of arguing for repartition.”

    What is this continuing nonsense of repartition…it was tried once before remember, in 1920…it didn’t work then and it won’t work now. What are nationalists in Belfast and other parts of Down/Antrim supposed to do in such a repartition? You would merely be recreating the six counties on a smaller scale (circa 1920), nothing more…with all the instability that would later entail.
    Short of massive forced population transfers, which are unimaginable, it could not work…so it should be ignored as an unworkable option. It is
    ,at best, an ill-thought out solution to a complex question.

    And, BESIDES, this is a thread about the South Derry Provos…

    About that story, it merely shows the fragmentation of the provos post-decommissioning, something, I would imagine, to be welcomed by Unionists. It further evidence of a lack of threat from that quarter, as hardened activists are leaving the movement…and basically going home…

  • overhere

    Is this a case of “Reds under the bed” syndrome

  • lib2016

    I’ve no idea of whether this story is true but it would be nice if the Brits could get around to implementing the GFA as adopted by referendum before the next generation of Irish republicans emerge.

  • Kathleen Collins

    posted by Kathy C

    Hi all, I too am disgusted with the leadership of sinn fein…but a return to the armed struggle now isn’t the answer. What is the answer…a voice…. Let others who are also unhappy know they aren’t alone….run one or two people in the next local elections against the leadership and see where it goes. Adams is always saying give politics a chance…that is because he always thinks he will be on top of the political heap…maybe he should see that in politics…if the people aren’t happy….you get voted out. Show the people that there is an alternative republican voice in politics…join sinn fein…and be the voice that brings republican reason back to the party… Sinn Fein loves to kick anyone out of the party that doesn’t go along silently with adams…all those who have been kicked out…should go to local meetings and have their voices heard…the are others…. Beat adams with politics…that way no one goes to jail…no one is physically hurt…but you can beat him because he is beatable….

  • German-American

    The “2021 scenario” may be dawning early on some nationalists…

    For the benefit of the non-Irish here like me, what’s the “2021 scenario”? I guessing that it’s named by analogy with 1921 and associated events (Anglo-Irish Treaty, etc.), but I could still use some explication.

  • darth rumsfeld

    so… last year these loyal provies were part of the “total decommissioning of arms” but now they seem to have weapons they want to use again. Any Sinner want to explain this further example of dishonesty?

  • declan

    German-American

    The “2021 scenario” is where the nationalist demographic increase has come to an end short of the critical mass needed to get a United Ireland. It is named after a year in the future when a census comes out.

  • German-American

    Thanks for the explanation, declan!

  • Henry94

    Kathleen

    I too am disgusted with the leadership of sinn fein…but a return to the armed struggle now isn’t the answer.

    If you support peaceful means could you explain to me what your objection is to the Sinn Fein strategy?

    It is a curious position to accept the necessity for peace while attacking the people who made it possible.

    On what platform would you run against Adams. I would welcome a dissident electoral challenge because I think it would show how small their support is. And I’m certain we won’t see one for that very reason.

  • kensei

    “so… last year these loyal provies were part of the “total decommissioning of arms” but now they seem to have weapons they want to use again. Any Sinner want to explain this further example of dishonesty?”

    Not a Shinner, but certainly. Take one of:

    1. As they clearly have disagreements with the leadership, they did not “dump arms” when ordered.

    2. They don’t actually have any, or not very many and that’s speculation

    3. They have acquired new ones.

    It’s not rocket science, kids.

  • darth rumsfeld

    Not a Shinner, but certainly. Take one of:

    “1. As they clearly have disagreements with the leadership, they did not “dump arms” when ordered.”
    -means the leadership lied to de Chastelain

    “2. They don’t actually have any, or not very many and that’s speculation ”
    -means the leadership lied to de Chastelain

    “3. They have acquired new ones.”
    -means the leadership lied to de Chastelain, if they were still provos, or hasn’t done anything to stop the rearmament

    “It’s not rocket science, kids.”
    -no, but it might be rockets

    damn those bloody Unionists for being right again!!!let’s distract them from the truth by shouting about their bigotry for the next fifty posts

  • Belfast boy in exile, in Hertfrord

    I love this site, and have finally got around to registering, Hello and nice to meet you all. I am
    Damian Patrick Faloona, Born, Dover Street, Belfast. Lived in Ballycastle Co. Antrim untill 17 years ago when, I became a financial exile in Hertford (about half way between London and Cambridge). I’m looking forward to joining the debates, with you all.
    Cheers, Damian

  • harpo

    ‘ “1. As they clearly have disagreements with the leadership, they did not “dump arms” when ordered.”
    -means the leadership lied to de Chastelain’

    Darth:

    This all highlights once again the farce that the final decommissioning act was.

    As I understood it, the PIRA leadership told de C that what was being decommissioned was all of their inventory of weapons. If what is said here is true, and not every unit dumped arms, then of what use was that inventory?

    Due to the lack of transparency in the whole process, it is obvious that what the PIRA leadership should have said was ‘well what we are showing you, and what is on the inventory, is everything that our volunteers bothered to put back in these dumps, but we can’t guarantee that every unit handed everything back’.

    Given the amount of reports that came out about various PIRA units being against the decommissioning, it’s obvious that many units had the opportunity to keep, and may have kept everything they had.

    If the truth is that the PIRA inventory was just whatever was returned to dumps by units, then there could be lots of PIRA weaponry out there, kept by units that weren’t sure about the whole process.

    Leading to cases like this.

  • harpo

    ‘The leadership of Oglaigh na hEireann (IRA) announced on 28 July that we had authorised our representative to engage with the IICD to complete the process of verifiably putting arms beyond use. The IRA leadership can now confirm that the process of putting arms beyond use has been completed.

    P O’Neill’

    That’s what the PIRA stated with respect to the final act of decommissioning.

    Note that what the PIRA said did not make any reference to ‘all arms’.

    It just said that the process of putting arms beyond use had been completed. Did that mean ‘all’, ‘some’, ‘those that we decided to have destroyed’, ‘those that our boys bothered to return to dumps’ or what?

    The PIRA never said that it was all of the weapons. General de C made that claim:

    “We are satisfied that the arms decommissioned represent the totality of the IRA’s arsenal.”

    That’s why we now have people bringing up cop-out responses to the news that certain PIRA units kept weapons. One being ‘well, some units may not have followed the order by the PIRA leadership to dump arms’.

    That means that there are probably weapons out there in the hands of Provos. Some of whom may decide to become ex-Provos.

  • Declan tells us:

    [i]”The “2021 scenario” is where the nationalist demographic increase has come to an end short of the critical mass needed to get a United Ireland. It is named after a year in the future when a census comes out.”[/i]

    declan bases his analysis on figures released as part of the 2001 census. The problem arose because there was an extraordinarly high non-answers to the question of religious identity/background, some 13.9%. So the wizards decided that these people would be allocated to Catholic/Protestant or nationalist/unionist on the basis of where they lived, i.e. in an area regarded as Protestant or in an area regarded as Catholic, the postal code used to define the area.

    So, the figures came out showing a Protestant majority in the ages 1-10 group.

    As a general rule, the distribution of the no-replies will closely parallel the distribution of those who replied — unless there is some valid reason to believe otherwise. There is a pattern of violence against isolated Catholic homes in Protestant areas which is not mirrored by attacks on isolated Protestant homes in Catholic areas.

    Second point: there’s a long history of allegations that conficential information in government files is regularly being leaked to loyalist paramilitaries.

    So, if anything, it would seem far more likely that Catholics living in Protestant areas would be far more likely to give no answer to the question than Protestants living in Catholic areas.

    Who knows? you could argue back and forth for years without really resoliving the issue.

    So, I took the raw census figures in the 1-10 cohort and redistributed the no-replies in the same proportions as those who replied, i.e. in the standard methodology for doing such a redistribution.

    the results?

    Catholics 54.6%
    Protestants: 45’1%
    Other 0.3%

    So, it appears that Declan’s analysis is based upon a very shaky foundation.

  • slug

    Harpo:

    Newton Emerson’s gramdmother’s saying that “Dr Paisley always turns out to be right in the end” never seemed more apt.

  • declan

    Bob

    “So the wizards decided that these people would be allocated to Catholic/Protestant or nationalist/unionist on the basis of where they lived, i.e. in an area regarded as Protestant or in an area regarded as Catholic, the postal code used to define the area.”

    Wrong.

    In fact the 13.9% of respondents who declined to state their current religion were also, separately, asked “what religion were you brought up in” which recieved a much greater response rate.

    This was the primary means to allocate the 13.9% of people to a religion, not the postcode.

    And, in the case of those under 10, most people whose religion was left unspecified by their parents were allocated to a religion using the replies of their parents to the question on “current religion” or the question “what religion were you brought up in”.

  • joeCanuck

    Welcome Damian

  • Kathy C

    posted by Kathy C

    Hi all,

    Henry 94, There are many things I disagree with. One of them being adams and the leadership have taken on the same tone as Bush…it’s either…you’re with me…or against me. There is no discussion and all opposition is attacked and the person labeled as not being for the peace process. One can be PRO-PEACE PROCCESS and against the way adams and co. are proceeding. Second, I think under adams the party has become timid and doesn’t take on paisly(dup) and blair(brits gov’t) in a political manner. Under adams sf plays soft ball…not hard ball. Third, it was gerry adams who wanted and pressed for the IRA to come out with a statement that they would give up criminality…ergo…it was adams that got the IRA to be labeled as criminals….thatcher didn’t do it…but adams did…and for what…make blair and paisly happy. Fourth…Gerry Kelly acting at the behest of adams…is sooooooo very eager to put the blame for what happens to Catholics…Irish…Republicans…on nameless faceless securocrats rather than nameing names. It is kelly who keeps giving the brits cover …not only with his own body…but with the ability to keep the brits as nameless faces of non accountablity….
    It makes me sick and disgusts me that kelly is always yacking….it’s the securocrats…it’s the securocrats fault….

    Isn’t it ironic that SF keeps saying they are a party for all…even the dissenter…yet if you dissent about anything adams or kelly has to say…better beware…..
    On the world stage and amoung the Irish…adams isn’t the darling he once was.

  • páid

    “On the world stage and amoung the Irish…adams isn’t the darling he once was”

    I’m sure he’s safe in Béal na mBlath though.

    And still the smartest kid on the block IMHO.

  • aquifer

    “the more peaceful one of arguing for repartition”

    Dream on. What sort of wiggly border do you have in mind? Or do you have a tractor trailer ready to move your sofa like those poor sods in the former Yugoslavia.

    “Newton Emerson’s gramdmother’s saying that “Dr Paisley always turns out to be right in the end” never seemed more apt.”

    Made a political career out of predicting disaster and ensuring it happened. What can Big Ian do about the politics of the last five eejits with a pistol? Same as he did about the civil rights campaign, suspension of Stormont, end of the RUC, Anglo-Irish agreement, GFA. This guy has form.

    I fear we have ethnic opportunists on both extremes creating a situation of continuous conflict to secure their own power and position, financed by the usual warlord staples. Smuggled drink, fags, and drugs, extortion and the vice trade.

    Rapid economic development and social change are a struggle for some. Lets be honest. Many are prepared to see people murdered so that they can subsist in their own cultural comfort zone.

    Its the state’s job to protect us from them, whether they are paramilitary or parapolitical.

  • Prince Eoghan

    You know what would happen if Paisley ever get’s his wish. No, I don’t mean Waraw/Lodz ghetto type walled encampments in Derry and West Belfast, or gulag’s in Armagh and Tyrone. No, what I mean is his stated desire to have Irishmen and women who had fought for their country, plead their penance with sackcloth and ashes. Well if this was ever to eventuate, would people like Darth, Harpo et al actually believe that it was real ashes in the sacks? Can’t help but wonder.

  • dave

    “On the world stage and amoung the Irish…adams isn’t the darling he once was”

    I’m sure he’s safe in Béal na mBlath though.

    And still the smartest kid on the block IMHO.

    Posted by pid on Jul 24, 2006 @ 07:12 PM”

    Not just the smartest on the block but also the richest???

  • harpo

    ‘No, what I mean is his stated desire to have Irishmen and women who had fought for their country, plead their penance with sackcloth and ashes.’

    Prince:

    Fought for their country? LOL. So now bombing furniture stores and putting bombs in litter bins in places like Warrington is fighting for your country? Listen, you can spin all the terrorism as a nice war if you want, but we aren’t buying. While you are at it, why not include the Shankill Butchers as being soldiers fighting a war, if revisionism is your thing?

    ‘Well if this was ever to eventuate, would people like Darth, Harpo et al actually believe that it was real ashes in the sacks?’

    I don’t know who this Al guy is, but don’t you understand that sackcloth and ashes doesn’t involve putting ashes in sacks?

    LOL. This is a classic.

  • declan

    This blog item illustrates that different people respond differntly to the “2021 scenario” in which nationalists begin to realise that the days of nationalist demographic increase in the six counties could be coming to an end, short of the critical mass needed to deliver a United Ireland.

    Some – as in this blog item – may think that a return to violence might be the answer. I suspect they will remain a tiny minority.

    I believe that many others will start to think in terms of a fair repartition.

    Early signs of this are illustrated in the following excerpt from last week’s Derry Journal business section, in which their business editor came out in favour of a fair repartition:

    “In the absence of any political deal in November and the demise of the Good Friday Agreement it might do no harm for the business community to consider lobbying for a new political solution based upon each of the northern counties being free to opt out of the United Kingdom and join the Republic”

    Derry Journal writer calls for fair repartition

  • Dread Cthulhu

    Must be raining… there’s another mushroom.

  • Roryyank

    Im not too sure where you all are getting your stats regarding that Protestants are in the majority from 1-10. According to the official Northern Ireland Census results here http://www.nicensus2001.gov.uk , Catholics are in the majority from 0-24yrs and Protestants are in an overwelmingly majority in the seniors category…

  • kensei

    ““1. As they clearly have disagreements with the leadership, they did not “dump arms” when ordered.”
    -means the leadership lied to de Chastelain”

    Nope, it means that the leadership gave everything they knew of, or they could reasonably expect to get.

    ““2. They don’t actually have any, or not very many and that’s speculation “
    -means the leadership lied to de Chastelain”

    Nope, means that individual volunteers lied, or it is total speculation and they have none.

    ““3. They have acquired new ones.”
    -means the leadership lied to de Chastelain, if they were still provos, or hasn’t done anything to stop the rearmament”

    No, it means they planned to leave and acquired weaponary outside of the knowledge odf the leadership.

    ““It’s not rocket science, kids.”
    -no, but it might be rockets

    damn those bloody Unionists for being right again!!!let’s distract them from the truth by shouting about their ####### for the next fifty posts”

    No, darth, I said nothing of the sort. Stop talking to the voice in your head.

    I know there is this wacky fundamentalist streak in Protestantism, and this may account for the delusion you could ever get every siungle weapon that ever existed, ever ever ever. You can’t. Some will be lost. Some will be kept by embittered volunteers. I suspect there is an odd dump out there in case of a pogrom, because 1969 looms large in the Republican mindset. None of that matters, because all of those are impossible to get and the PIRA could rearm within a month if it chose, not to mention all those nasty home made conncotions it can come up with. All of the above would still be true regardless of the transparency of the process.

    What matters, and what solely matters is that the mindset is being decommissioned. No one wants to go back to war, and that’s why these dissidents will receive as little support as the others that have emerged. The problem darth, is that you are so blinded by dark conspiracy theories that you are misisng the magnitude of what has happened. the PIRA have given up an amount of arms large enough to convince a General it is close to all of them. They have ordered volunteers to dump arms and stand dowen. It’s leaders are actively talking about engagement of Unionism. It’;s the fucking mindset darth, and the direction that matters, because those things are more potrewnt than guns and bombs. And the only thing likely to even give a chance to drag us back is a huge motherfucking political vacuum.

  • declan

    Roryyank

    I have checked the 2001 census figures before and they confirm that of those in the 0-10 age group less than 50% are in the Catholic (by community background) category, while those migrating into the six counties are less than 40% in the Catholic (by community background) category.

    This suggests that the days of heavy nationalist demographic increase could be coming to an end. Its in that context I refer to the “2021 scenario” in which nationalists come to believe that their numbers have maxed out before attaining the critical mass of 51% needed to secure a United Ireland.

    This is the context in which many nationalists may start to think in terms of a fair repartition come about 2021.

  • binlid

    declan,

    There is no such thing as fair repartition.

  • curious

    “It makes me sick and disgusts me that kelly is always yacking”
    -Kathy C

    It disgusts me too, probably for different reasons than it disgusts you

    Regarding decomissioning, it makes no difference whether the provos have got rid of all their arms or not – I’m sure it wouldn’t take them to long to replenish their supplies if they were inclined to do so. It’s all just political fun and games.

  • Pete Tosh

    Just an addenda to the 2021 debate:
    Consider the immigrant communities and the voting electorate that they will have contributed by then. I don’t forsee the potential for much of a unionist mandate in that demographic. Come to think of it, 2021 seems to be a far too consevative estimate for unification by referena

  • [i]”I have checked the 2001 census figures before and they confirm that of those in the 0-10 age group less than 50% are in the Catholic (by community background) category, while those migrating into the six counties are less than 40% in the Catholic (by community background) category.”[/i]

    If you checked the raw, not the redistributed figures, I think you checked wrong. The table in question is S-305 and can be found at:

    http://www.nisranew.nisra.gov.uk/Census/Excel/Standardtables/s305.xls

    This table downloads into a Microsoft Excel worksheet file.

    Be that as it may, the table shows:

    Ages 0-4 Males:
    29,944 Catholics
    25,639 other Christian and Christian related, 238 Other religious philosoophies
    4,495 None.

    Ages 5-9 Males:
    31,030 Catholics
    28,379 other Christian and Christian related
    236 Other religious philosoophies
    3,500 None.

    Ages 0-4 Females:
    27,702 Catholics
    24,035 other Christian and Christian related
    221 Other religious philosoophies
    4,067 None.

    Ages 5-9 Females:
    29,822 Catholics
    26,891 other Christian and Christian related
    188 Other religious philosoophies
    3,002 None

    Putting them all together we get:
    118,498 Catholics
    104,944 other Christian and Christian related
    883 Other religious philosoophies
    15,064 None

    So, we would have to allocate 13,544 or about 90% of those 15,064 “Nones” to make the Catholic and Protestant numbers equal.

    Seems to me that Declan’s trying to sell a pipe-dream

  • declan

    Bob-most of those people who didn’t state a current religion, did answer the question on “religion brought up in”. They were mainly brought up protestant. For those in the youngest age categories, the religion, or “religion of upbringing” was used to allocate the child. Thus the % Catholic in the youngest age groups has indeed fallen below 50% in the youngest age groups.

  • Yokel

    Declan I have to say your figures go against the commonly perceived and popular notions of where the demographic of the country is going.

    Based on living here I do believe that the Prods are a) less inclined to see themselves in terms of a religion and b) less inclined to state it. When you also count the number of Protestants who wouldn’t use the term because of the well crafted negative associations with the Orange Order etc, it is very possibly true that a majority non-respondants would indeed be of the loose Protestant or more significantly, Unionist persuasion. If your information about the better responded question is correct Declan then this bears out your claim.

    In addition we do have the small but errr, well extremely important issue of Catholic unionists who by all accounts outnumber Protestant nationalists considerably. Even if it was 1 in 10 Catholics were, when it came to the big question, going to put their X beside the Union box it just stretches the whole partition issue out.

    Partition again? Well why not, I mean it would take nothing for large parts of South Armagh..Newry and the West bank of the Foyle to go. The West Bank of the Foyle is a case in point, its perfect.

  • lib2016

    “The West Bank of the Foyle is a case in point,….”

    How about the West Bank of the Lagan? Sorry but the referendum has taken place and the GFA has been accepted by the people. If you want to change that result then by all means start campaigning for another referendum. Don’t fancy your chances much but you never know.

  • [i]”Bob-most of those people who didn’t state a current religion, did answer the question on “religion brought up in”. They were mainly brought up protestant. For those in the youngest age categories, the religion, or “religion of upbringing” was used to allocate the child. Thus the % Catholic in the youngest age groups has indeed fallen below 50% in the youngest age groups.”[/i]

    First: Catholics are a minority only if you count about 90% of the “Nones” as Protestant. Highly unlikely.

    Second: “They were mainly brought up protestant.”
    Evidence, please. All you have is a rather broad assumption and 90% is a helluva lot more than “mainly”.

    Third: if postal codes were used to decide the religious background of the “Nones”, it seems far more likely that Catholics answered “None” than protestant because of Catholic fears of identifying themselves to the death squads and other unionist hoodlums.

    Sorry, Declan, your claim of a Protestant majority in the two youngest cohorts simply doesn’t stand up to rational analysis.

  • declan

    I said what the census says: a Catholic minority in the under 10s. (Not a protestant majority. Please do not misrepresent me.)

    What I have said all along remains true, the Catholic proportion of the under 10 age group fell below 50% in the last census. Thats true whether you use the religion figures or the community background figures.

    For this reason my scenario 2021 is a real possibility. The scenario in which nationalist demograhic increase comes to an end short of the 51% crtical mass needed for nationalists to attain a UI. In this scenario, more nationalists will start to think in terms of a fair repartition

  • pid

    Any of ye re-partitionists got any maps so we can see what’s in mind?

  • DK

    Declan,

    Thought this might be of interest to your numbers:

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/5210256.stm

    Shows that the recent increase in population in NI, almost half was from immigrants (presumably from E. Europe and UK).

    Also, in the ten-year period between 1995 and 2005 the number of children fell from 416,500 to 381,200, which is a drop of 8.5%. So, maybe there will eventually be no-one in your lovely 0-10 year old bracket.

  • DK

    pid,

    This might help

    http://cain.ulst.ac.uk/images/maps/map12.htm

    As you can see – the border would look pretty wibbly with repartition – and leave areas like the glens and West Tyrone on the wrong side.

  • [i]”What I have said all along remains true, the Catholic proportion of the under 10 age group fell below 50% in the last census. Thats true whether you use the religion figures or the community background figures.”[/i]

    But the Protestant minority is even smaller. i.e. Catholic proportion is 49.5% while the Protestant proportion is 43.8%. If your theory holds the chances of continued union are even less.

    The Protestant proportion is equal to the Catholic proportion only if some 90% of those who did not answer are Protestant. As I said earlier, 90% is a helluva lot more than “mainly”.

    Sorry, Declan, your theory is still a pipe dream

  • [i]”Shows that the recent increase in population in NI, almost half was from immigrants (presumably from E. Europe and UK).”[/i]

    Both immigration and continued emigration are the factors that can change the whole scenario and which the census numbers really don’t address.

    Also, there is the issue of emigrants returning to Ireland. It’s certainly true of the RoI since the tiger roared. But, I suspect that a lot of NI emigrants are ready to or have already returned. Simply don’t know.

    It’s the factor that makes all population projections even more questionable than usual.

  • elvis parker

    “Fair Repartition” = nationalists who realise that a UI is never going to happen looking for a equally unlikely pipe dream

  • darth rumsfeld

    so kensei, we agree that there could never be total decommissioning. You say the republican mindset has changed- unless there is a political vacuum.

    I say these two statements translate as-“we’ll use political means to get a united Ireland, but if and when we hit the brick wall of reality, that it ain’t gonna happen, then a proportion of republicans- 10%, 50% or 99%, it doesn’t matter- will go back to violence, and some of us have preserved the means to do so.”

    And our incentive for having these people in our government is…..?

    Respect for the Unionist section of the people and their aspirations seem unsurprisingly hard to find in that mindset. Just another tactic to get the Brits to lean on us for you, then. Yup, that seems about right.

  • kensei

    “so kensei, we agree that there could never be total decommissioning. You say the republican mindset has changed- unless there is a political vacuum.”

    No, I think “total” decommissioning has happened. I disagree on what total is.

    Also wrong on the political vacuum. Again with the fundamentalist streak. It’s not “there is a vacuum we’ll go back to war”. It’s that a vacuum allows conditons to arise where it is posible, and gives elements who want to distabilise things space. it doesn’t mean it will happen. Spilling petrol might not start a fire, but I don’t advise you do that, either.

    “Respect for the Unionist section of the people and their aspirations seem unsurprisingly hard to find in that mindset. Just another tactic to get the Brits to lean on us for you, then. Yup, that seems about right.”

    I respect your aspirations. I also respect your fears. But I do not think I should pander to them at the expense of all else, and you also need to respect mine. I’m perfectly willing to talk to you and negotiate some acceptable position, face to face, or in a commitee or ….. oh.