It is extraordinary how one poll with a barely perceptable change in the fortunes of Fianna Fail can lead so quickly to talk of a crisis in government. Yesterday’s Sunday Business Post returned the slightest of changes for Fianna Fail, the Greens and Sinn Fein: with a larger (2%) slip for Labour.According to Irish language election site Guth an Phobail’s own tracking poll with correctives added, he the likely outcome would spill out like this:
Fianna Fáil 58 (32.79%)
Fine Gael 50 (26.83%)
Lucht Oibre [Labour] 30 (14.14%)
Comhaontas Glas/Greens 8 (5.98%)
Sinn Féin 7 (7.99%)
Páirtí Daonlathach [PDs] 4 (3.22%)
Páirtí Sóisialach [Socialists] 1 (0.76%)
agus 8 n-iarrthóir neamhspleách [independents].
The Sinn Fein tally looks small to me, though Ciaran who owns the site has added 6% to their average in Donegal South West because of an especially strong candidate. and predicts at this point that FF may not pick up any seats in Dublin South East.
Mick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty