Small change in SBP tracking poll…

It is extraordinary how one poll with a barely perceptable change in the fortunes of Fianna Fail can lead so quickly to talk of a crisis in government. Yesterday’s Sunday Business Post returned the slightest of changes for Fianna Fail, the Greens and Sinn Fein: with a larger (2%) slip for Labour.According to Irish language election site Guth an Phobail’s own tracking poll with correctives added, he the likely outcome would spill out like this:

Fianna Fáil 58 (32.79%)
Fine Gael 50 (26.83%)
Lucht Oibre [Labour] 30 (14.14%)
Comhaontas Glas/Greens 8 (5.98%)
Sinn Féin 7 (7.99%)
Páirtí Daonlathach [PDs] 4 (3.22%)
Páirtí Sóisialach [Socialists] 1 (0.76%)
agus 8 n-iarrthóir neamhspleách [independents].

The Sinn Fein tally looks small to me, though Ciaran who owns the site has added 6% to their average in Donegal South West because of an especially strong candidate. and predicts at this point that FF may not pick up any seats in Dublin South East.