Latest Poll: FG and SF Up, FF and Lab down

The Sunday Business Post carries the latest Poll findings today (reported here at RTE), concluding that neither the government nor Rainbow alternative would be likely to have the numbers to form a stable government on the basis of the results. Fianna Fail at 35% (-2), Fine Gael 25% (up 2), Labour 12% (down 1), Sinn Fein 10% (up 1), Greens 5% (down 2) and PDs 4% (up 1). Independents are at 9%. Early days yet, of course, but such an outcome would leave Sinn Fein- and some Independents- as the Kingmakers of any new government.

  • I hope to god this poll was carried out before the mayhem yesterday.

  • crataegus

    “such an outcome would leave Sinn Fein- and some Independents- as the Kingmakers of any new government”.

    No it leaves Labour as the Kingmaker.

  • Pat Mc Larnon

    ‘I hope to god this poll was carried out before the mayhem yesterday.’

    How could the ‘mayhem’ of yesterday effected this poll?

  • Well if people in the Republic have now had a taste of the sort of “mischief” Ireland’s new Republicans have been getting up to up here for the past 30 years perhaps they’ll sit up and think twice before voting for them down there.

    It’s exactly what Republicans in Northern Ireland have been engaged in for years now, and perhaps voters in the Republic will realise that these aren’t simple oppressed Irish folk but troublemakers. If anything, I believe it could lead to a better understanding of the challenges faced by the security forces and the unhelpfulness of republicans permanently sniping at them from the sidelines.

  • slug

    Beano:

    I wonder if the riots might actually be good for the votes of RSF? It seems there were lots of people willing to engage in anti-unionist (and indeed generally xenophobic rioting), so a few % of that kind of politics might switch from SF to RSF. There are people with xenophobic politics in all countries and RSF could capitalise on that.

  • Dave

    The Sinn Fein as “Kingmaker” line is being furiously trotted out by PSF at the moment for good reason:

    Because no party in the south will go into coalition with them a vite for SF is, in effect, a wasted vote. All this kingmaker talk is an effort to mask the fact.

    Bertie has said he would go into Opposition rather than use sf support. Indeed, the FF Parliamentary Party would never allow a coalition with SF. The vast majority of FF people dont even accept the PSF are from the Republican family.

    Based on this fact and on the figures they’re not kingmakers – Labour are.

  • Pat Mc Larnon

    beano,

    could you explain further? The people responsible for yesterdays ‘mischief’ are not measured in the poll at all. Therefore the conclusions you reach seem to be the result of a fertile imagination.

  • Dave

    Pat
    It will have negative implication for SF in the south for the following reasons;

    1. People in dublin know the ogra sf people who gather in a certain pub the top of oconnell st every sat and sun were involved.

    2. two of sean crowes people were already mentioned in media here.

    3.SF every day of the week seeks to get votes by building on nationalist victimhood (ie sectarianism). There is a linkage in the minds of the majority between SF and nationalist sectarianism.

    4.At a very basic level, the young men we saw shouting on o connell street with tricolours wrapped around them look the same as the young men people see in voting centres when sf fighting election.

    It may not be fair – but its true.

  • Whistleblower

    Dave you`re Unionist mask is slipping there. All you have posted there is innuendo without any facts.
    Throw enough mud and hope it sticks, eh!

    The people of the South will make their own minds up and won`t be swayed by the politics of fear and negativity!

    Does it annoy you that much that SF are the biggest all Ireland party, the fastest growing and the party with the largest youth membership!

    SF continues to grow for one simple facall year round.

  • Whistleblower

    Last paragraph should have read;

    “SF continues to grow for one simple fact, it works tirelessly all year round”.

  • Dave

    SF growth does not bother me at all.

    What does bother me is way people like you presume anyone who disagrees with sf is a unionist.

    Thats the sort of thing which led to saturdays riot.
    Thats the sort of thing that makes people associate sf with the riot.

    (by the way – sf is not still growing – you know as well as i do its peaked in the 6 counties and has been stagnant for 16 months now in the polls – up 1% or down1% but going nowhere.)

  • Young Dubliner

    Dave you really are trying to scrap the barrell. There is no love lost between SF and RSF, its the same hatred that divides SF from the remnants of the sticks.

    If you really lived in Dublin you would off course know this.

    Remind me where all those so far changed, reside?
    Dublin, not, Belfast, Derry, Newry!!!!

    But kind building your sandcastles of lies, spin in the hope of blaming SF for yesterday.

  • Brian Boru

    Beano since you asked it was taken before the riots. I don’t think SF will enter govt after 2007. FG are historically very anti-SF so they won’t go in with them. On present poll-findings, FF-PD’s would be on 39% to 37% for FG-Lab. However, if the Greens are added to the latter, you have 42%. Still not enough to govern. However, polls have nearly always underestimated FG’s true level of support. I expect the next govt to be dependent on Independents for a majority in Dail Eireann, like the 97-02 govt.

  • Brian Boru

    This was Brian Boru (me) not Crataegus1.

    “Beano since you asked it was taken before the riots. I don’t think SF will enter govt after 2007. FG are historically very anti-SF so they won’t go in with them. On present poll-findings, FF-PD’s would be on 39% to 37% for FG-Lab. However, if the Greens are added to the latter, you have 42%. Still not enough to govern. However, polls have nearly always underestimated FG’s true level of support. I expect the next govt to be dependent on Independents for a majority in Dail Eireann, like the 97-02 govt.”

  • Dave

    I do live in dublin.

    The fact that those charged are from dublin proves nothing for wither of us. There is no question of blaming northerns it was cleary stupid dubliners.

    I dont believe Sat was that centrally controlled by any one party – I just said that there are reports of SF members there – I presume there were also many supporters of other parties.

    Anyway, it really seem to annoy the SF posting committee. It shouldnt really.

  • Keith M

    Firstly, this poll was taken before yesterday’s riots, so there is no impact as yet. What impact there may be will most likely impact SF/IRA through the “guilt through association” mentality, no matter how the Provo leadership try to dissaociate themselves from yesterday’s event.

    The PDs may actually benefit as their offices were attacked and McDowell’s warning of threats to the state from fascist elements within the republican movement.

    As for RSF, they are not a political entity of any impact here. THey are Ireland’s version of the U.K.’s BNP, only with even less support.

    Now to the matter at hand. This poll is bad news for the government, but the budget changes have yet to kick in for most people.

    As for the laughable ““SF continues to grow for one simple fact, it works tirelessly all year round”. Firstly this is the first poll that has seen an increase for SF/IRA in almost a year, the partyy are still not back to the levbel of poll support in 2003/4 and yesterday won’t help as I mentioned above.

  • Keith M

    The 01:07 post was mine : KeithM

  • Pat Mc Larnon

    Dave,

    you and a few others are taking it for granted that people cannot ascertain the facts and therefore come to the conclusion just who and what were responsible for the trouble in Dublin yesterday.
    A lot of your post is spin and innuendo. also the fact you refer to the ‘SF posting committee’ is perhaps an indicator of your true background on this subject.

  • CS Parnell

    Dave is right.

    It doesn’t matter if it was RSF or the real deal. People will see what the RM is all about.

    Robbing the Northern Bank was some event in the Black North and slap it up the black bastards will have been the attitude. But you don’t have to be Sherlock Holmes to understand from yesterday that what goes around comes around.

  • slug

    Watch these tricolour-clad rioters go:

    phone video1

    phone video2

    [by phone video]

  • CS Parnell

    RSF and Adams are linked by one simple thing: they both refuse to accept the legitimacy of the Irish state. Adams dresses his views up with some fancy dancing but one only has to read his speech to the ard fheis to realise that he still holds to the view that a republic was set up in 1916 and then suppressed by British-inspired counter revolution. The only difference between himself and RSF is one of degree – they both regard the Republic as a an illegitimate partitionist entity. RSF openly support its military overthrow while Adams advocates a reformist view. But in both cases the illegitimacy of the state is a step towards legitimising disregading the rule of law.

  • Pete Baker

    For the benefit of the statistically illiterate, which apparently includes RTÉ, the changes noted in the original post all fall within the margin of error for such polls – in some cases well within that margin of error.

    In other words, the variations are statistically insignificant and any attempt to project from those variations would be ill-advised and, probably, party-politically motivated.

    Pete Baker

  • Dave

    Good man Pat,

    My “true background on this subject” – so I must be a unionist!!!!

  • CS Parnell

    Pete is wrong in his interpretation of confidence levels. The changes are real, whether they are significant is another question. But it is quite statistically literate to say that party support has fallen or risen because the confidence levels have fallen or risen – ie if the confidence level was +/- 3% and your support was 10% then polls might report your support (assuming all respondents are truthful, yada yada yada) as anywhere between 7 and 13, but if your support rises to 11 then those figures become 8 and 14. It’s a real change and RTE are well within their rights to present it as such.

  • crataegus

    I only posted comment No 2

    Seems to be a glitch in the software

    Crataegus

  • Paul

    SF are political pariahs in the Republic. All the main parties have made it clear that they do not think SF fit for govt in the south (good enough for the wee six though). SF as kingmakers is pure fantasy, dream on. SF do work tirelessly round the clock (they have enough money to pay their activists so why not) and will work tirelessly to talk up their growing influence. Truth is, they get the protest vote, they are not and never will be serious contenders.

  • J Kelly

    SF are political pariahs in the Republic.

    What does this make the PDs? This talk of nobody touching SF is nonsense lets all wait until after the election and see. Does anybody think for one minute that Bertie would take opposition rather than deal with Sinn Fein. All this talk of no SF in government is FF trying to ensure that their vote doesn’t slip to SF.